Consumer Confidence Statistics (2026)

American consumers have turned gloomier again. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9 in September 2026, its lowest reading of the year, while the University of Michigan's sentiment index slipped to 46.3 in October's preliminary reading, its third straight monthly decline (see the table below).

Both gauges sit well below their long-run norms. On the Conference Board scale, readings above 100 mark households feeling good about jobs and finances, so 81.9 signals real unease. The Michigan index, benchmarked to 100 in 1966, is deep in territory usually seen only in recessions and less than two points above its May 2026 record low.

There are two headline confidence measures and they do not always agree. The Conference Board index, from a survey of about 3,000 households, leans on labor-market perceptions. The University of Michigan index, running since 1952, weights personal finances and inflation more heavily, which is why it has been far gloomier through this bout of high prices.

In mid-2026 the split was stark: the Conference Board index sat near the middle of its historical range while Michigan sentiment hovered near record lows. By autumn both were pointing down together, with the Conference Board index at a 2026 low and Michigan drifting back toward its May trough. Watching both, rather than either alone, gives a truer read on how households feel.

The Conference Board index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September 2026 from 88.6 in August, after two prior months of softening, per the September release. That put it below January's 84.5, which had been the lowest since May 2014.

Write-in responses pointed to high prices for goods and services, especially oil and gas after a September surge in fuel costs, and the survey period also included a federal funds rate hike. Consumers' appraisals of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024.

Both halves of the Conference Board index fell in September. The Present Situation Index, based on views of current business and labor conditions, dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, while the Expectations Index, covering the six-month outlook, fell 5.9 points to 63.6 (see the table below).

The detail shows the breadth of the slide: 20.4% of consumers called business conditions 'bad' (up from 17.3% in August) against 18.5% 'good', 28.4% expected fewer jobs ahead, and 68.4% expected higher interest rates. Average 12-month inflation expectations in the survey rose to 6.1%.

The Expectations Index carries a widely watched rule of thumb: readings below 80 have historically flagged a recession within roughly a year. At 63.6 in September 2026, after its third consecutive monthly decline, the index sits far beneath that line and has spent an extended stretch there.

A sub-80 reading is a warning, not a verdict. The signal has produced false alarms in the past. Still, a persistently weak expectations gauge is one reason forecasters keep recession odds elevated.

Confidence had a rough start to 2026. The Conference Board index plunged 9.7 points in January to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014, then clawed back to the low-90s by spring and early summer (see the chart and table below).

The recovery did not last. The index eased to 90.2 in July and 88.6 in August, then fell to 81.9 in September as fuel prices surged again. The round trip mirrors the year's economic crosscurrents: sticky prices and a wobbly job market pulling confidence down, offset at times by falling gas prices.

The University of Michigan survey has traced a full round trip. Sentiment cratered to an all-time low of 44.8 in May 2026, rebounded to 49.5 in June and 55.2 in July, then faded to 51.7 in August, 48.1 in September and 46.3 in October's preliminary reading (see the chart and table below).

In October, the current-conditions index fell to 44.7 from 50.9 while expectations edged up to 47.3. Buying conditions for durables plummeted amid high prices and borrowing costs, and sentiment dropped steeply for lower-income consumers and those with smaller stock portfolios, per the University of Michigan.

The labor market is a persistent worry. In the Conference Board survey, the share of consumers saying jobs are 'hard to get' hit 22.5% in June, a five-and-a-half-year high, eased to 19.5% in August, then rose again to 21.9% in September, while those calling jobs 'plentiful' slipped to 23.6% (see the table below).

That gap between 'plentiful' and 'hard to get,' known as the labor differential, is a real-time read on hiring that often moves before the official jobs data. It narrowed to +1.7 points in September, and 28.4% of consumers expected fewer jobs in six months versus 14.0% expecting more.

Price expectations are central to how confident households feel. In October's preliminary reading, Michigan respondents expected inflation of 4.7% over the next year and 3.5% over the next five years, both up for a second straight month and the highest since May (see the table below).

Year-ahead expectations were 3.4% in February, before the Iran conflict began, and the long-run figure now sits above its 2024 range of 2.8-3.2%. Because expectations can become self-fulfilling, policymakers watch them closely: as long as consumers brace for 4%-plus inflation, they behave more cautiously.

No single price moves sentiment like gasoline. May's record-low Michigan reading was driven largely by a spike in gas prices tied to Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their finances, up from 50% a month earlier.

Falling oil and gas prices then powered the summer rebound, and the University of Michigan cautioned that the recovery might prove hard to sustain if pump prices climbed again. They did: the Conference Board's September survey cited oil and gas prices reaching new highs after a September surge in fuel costs, and both indices fell back.

Today's readings are weak by historical standards. The Conference Board index peaked at 144.7 in January 2000 during the dot-com boom and bottomed at 25.3 in February 2009 in the depths of the financial crisis (see the chart and table below).

The Michigan index reached about 112 in early 2000 and, before 2026, had never fallen below the 50.0 struck in June 2022. May 2026's 44.8 shattered that, making it the most pessimistic reading in the survey's 70-plus-year history, and October's preliminary 46.3 is the second-lowest reading of 2026.

The Conference Board and Michigan indices can point different directions because they are built differently. The Conference Board asks more about jobs and business conditions and uses a larger, mail-based panel; Michigan asks more about personal finances and inflation and phones a smaller sample.

In a period defined by high prices, Michigan's inflation tilt has made it the gloomier gauge, while the Conference Board's labor tilt kept it steadier until the job market softened. When the two diverge, the reason is usually which worry, prices or jobs, is dominant.

Consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of US economic activity, so how households feel is a leading clue to where the economy heads. When confidence sinks, people delay big purchases, trim discretionary outlays, and save more, which can slow growth on its own.

The catch is that sentiment and behavior sometimes part ways. Through 2026, spending held up better than the grim sentiment readings implied, a reminder that confidence surveys measure mood, and mood does not always translate straight into cash-register receipts.

Confidence readings are a mood gauge, not a market-timing tool. History shows that deeply pessimistic sentiment has often coincided with better forward stock returns, because low confidence tends to mean bad news is already priced in, while euphoria has marked tops. Selling because everyone feels terrible is usually backwards.

The steadier approach is to ignore the monthly swings in confidence and stay invested through the cycle: keep an emergency fund in cash, hold a diversified basket of stocks for the long run, and avoid reacting to any single sentiment print. A weak confidence reading is a snapshot of feelings, not a forecast you should trade on.