Consumer Confidence Statistics (2026)

American consumers are downbeat but no longer plumbing the depths. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index stood at 91.2 in June 2026, among its weakest readings of the past year, while the University of Michigan's sentiment index rose to 54.4 in July, a five-month high (see the table below).

Both gauges sit well below their long-run norms. On the Conference Board scale, readings above 100 mark households feeling good about jobs and finances, so 91.2 signals unease. The Michigan index, benchmarked to 100 in 1966, is deep in territory usually seen only in recessions.

There are two headline confidence measures and they do not always agree. The Conference Board index, from a survey of about 3,000 households, leans on labor-market perceptions. The University of Michigan index, running since 1952, weights personal finances and inflation more heavily, which is why it has been far gloomier through this bout of high prices.

In mid-2026 the split is stark: the Conference Board index is near the middle of its historical range while Michigan sentiment is near record lows. Watching both, rather than either alone, gives a truer read on how households feel.

The Conference Board index inched up 0.6 points to 91.2 in June from a revised 90.6 in May, but the gain still missed the 94.4 forecast and left the index among the lowest readings of the prior twelve months. It was also the weakest June print in over a decade.

Falling oil prices in the weeks before the survey gave consumers modest relief on inflation fears, which nudged the headline up. Underneath, though, worries about jobs and the cost of living kept a lid on any real improvement.

The Conference Board index splits into two parts that diverged in June. The Present Situation Index, based on views of current business and labor conditions, fell 3.0 points to 116.4, while the Expectations Index, covering the six-month outlook, rose 3.0 points to 74.4 (see the table below).

That pattern, a softening read on the here-and-now paired with a slightly less bleak outlook, is common when consumers sense the economy has already cooled but hope the worst is behind them. Business-conditions and income-outlook detail rounds out the picture.

The Expectations Index carries a widely watched rule of thumb: readings below 80 have historically flagged a recession within roughly a year. At 74.4 in June, the Expectations Index has now spent an extended stretch beneath that line.

A sub-80 reading is a warning, not a verdict. The signal has produced false alarms, and the broader economy stayed solid through 2026 even as sentiment sagged. Still, a persistently weak expectations gauge is one reason forecasters keep recession odds elevated.

Confidence had a rough start to 2026. The Conference Board index plunged 9.7 points in January to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014, then clawed partway back to the low-90s by spring before slipping again (see the chart and table below).

The round trip, down hard, up modestly, then flat, mirrors the year's economic crosscurrents: sticky prices and a wobbly job market pulling confidence down, offset at times by falling gas prices. The net result is an index stuck in a weak, narrow range.

The University of Michigan survey tells a darker but improving story. Sentiment cratered to an all-time low of 44.8 in May 2026, then rebounded to 49.5 in June and 54.4 in July, a 9.9% monthly jump and the highest reading since February (see the chart and table below).

July's gain was broad, with all five components rising and roughly 20% improvements in durable-goods buying plans and the year-ahead business outlook. Even so, at 54.4 the index remains about 12% below its year-ago level of 61.7.

The labor market is a growing worry. In the Conference Board survey, the share of consumers saying jobs are 'hard to get' climbed to 22.5% in June, a five-and-a-half-year high and the most since early 2021, while those calling jobs 'plentiful' slipped to 24.9% (see the table below).

That gap between 'plentiful' and 'hard to get,' known as the labor differential, is a real-time read on hiring that often moves before the official jobs data. Its narrowing in 2026 points to a labor market losing steam.

Price expectations are central to how confident households feel. In July, Michigan respondents expected inflation of 4.2% over the next year, down from 4.6% in June as pump prices eased, and 3.3% over the next five years (see the table below).

Both figures remain elevated versus the roughly 3% norm of the late 2010s. Because expectations can become self-fulfilling, policymakers watch them closely: as long as consumers brace for 4%-plus inflation, they behave more cautiously.

No single price moves sentiment like gasoline. May's record-low Michigan reading was driven largely by a spike in gas prices tied to Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their finances, up from 50% a month earlier.

The reverse then powered the summer rebound: falling oil and gas prices lifted both the Conference Board and Michigan indices. The University of Michigan itself cautioned that the recovery may prove hard to sustain if pump prices climb again.

Today's readings are weak by historical standards but not uniformly record-breaking. The Conference Board index peaked at 144.7 in January 2000 during the dot-com boom and bottomed at 25.3 in February 2009 in the depths of the financial crisis (see the chart and table below).

The Michigan index reached about 112 in early 2000 and, before 2026, had never fallen below the 50.0 struck in June 2022. May 2026's 44.8 shattered that, making it the most pessimistic reading in the survey's 70-plus-year history.

The Conference Board and Michigan indices can point different directions because they are built differently. The Conference Board asks more about jobs and business conditions and uses a larger, mail-based panel; Michigan asks more about personal finances and inflation and phones a smaller sample.

In a period defined by high prices, Michigan's inflation tilt has made it the gloomier gauge, while the Conference Board's labor tilt kept it steadier until the job market softened. When the two diverge, the reason is usually which worry, prices or jobs, is dominant.

Consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of US economic activity, so how households feel is a leading clue to where the economy heads. When confidence sinks, people delay big purchases, trim discretionary outlays, and save more, which can slow growth on its own.

The catch is that sentiment and behavior sometimes part ways. Through 2026, spending held up better than the grim sentiment readings implied, a reminder that confidence surveys measure mood, and mood does not always translate straight into cash-register receipts.

Confidence readings are a mood gauge, not a market-timing tool. History shows that deeply pessimistic sentiment has often coincided with better forward stock returns, because low confidence tends to mean bad news is already priced in, while euphoria has marked tops. Selling because everyone feels terrible is usually backwards.

The steadier approach is to ignore the monthly swings in confidence and stay invested through the cycle: keep an emergency fund in cash, hold a diversified basket of stocks for the long run, and avoid reacting to any single sentiment print. A weak confidence reading is a snapshot of feelings, not a forecast you should trade on.