Investor Sentiment Statistics (2026)

Investor sentiment in mid-2026 is a study in contradictions. Retail investors are mildly optimistic, the AAII survey shows bullishness above average, yet CNN's Fear & Greed Index reads 37 (fear) and consumer confidence is deeply depressed (see the dashboard below).

Professionals, meanwhile, are positioned for a boom: fund-manager cash is at a record low and borrowed money in brokerage accounts is at an all-time high. When the crowd is fully invested and levered, contrarians get nervous, which is the tension running through every gauge on this page.

The American Association of Individual Investors has polled its members weekly since 1987, asking a simple question: are you bullish, bearish, or neutral on stocks over the next six months. In July 2026, bullishness was 44.9%, bearishness 36.1%, and neutral 18.9% (see the chart below).

For context, the long-run averages are 37.5% bullish, 31.5% neutral, and 30.5% bearish, so today's readings show more optimism and more pessimism than usual, with the middle ground squeezed. The survey is the most-watched retail sentiment gauge and is widely treated as a contrarian signal at extremes (AAII).

Analysts often collapse the AAII survey into one number: the bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish). In July 2026 that spread was about +8.8 points (44.9% minus 36.1%), a mildly positive reading that sits close to neutral rather than at a euphoric or panicked extreme.

The spread matters because extremes tend to mark turning points. A spread far above +20 has historically clustered near market tops, while deeply negative spreads have appeared near bottoms. At +8.8, the current reading is not flashing either warning, it simply says retail investors lean cautiously optimistic.

The survey's power comes from its extremes, and the two records are textbook contrarian tells. Bullishness hit an all-time high of 75.0% on January 6, 2000, days before the dot-com bubble began to burst. Bearishness peaked at 70.3% on March 5, 2009, essentially the bottom of the financial crisis (see the table below).

In both cases the crowd was most confident exactly when it should have been fearful, and most terrified right before a historic rally. That is why sentiment is a fade-the-crowd tool: it works best when readings are stretched, not when they hover near their averages as they do now.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index compresses seven market signals (price momentum, price strength, market breadth, put/call ratios, junk-bond demand, volatility, and safe-haven demand) into a single 0-100 score. On July 17, 2026 it read 37, in the 'Fear' band (see the table below).

Historically the index averages about 48.8, with an all-time high of 97 and a low of 0. So far in 2026 it has averaged 44.3 and ranged from 14 to 71, spending more time in fear than greed. The 2026 history here is compiled by an aggregator (finhacker) rather than CNN directly, so treat the archival figures as approximate.

The CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX, measures expected 30-day S&P 500 volatility priced into options, and it rises when investors pay up for protection. In July 2026 the VIX was calm near 15, below its long-run median of about 17.6 (see the chart and table below).

A low VIX signals complacency; a high one signals fear. The record high was 82.69 during the March 2020 COVID crash, and the record low was 9.14 in November 2017. Today's mid-teens reading says options markets see little near-term stress, which sits oddly against the fearful Fear & Greed score.

Consumer confidence is a different animal from market sentiment: it measures how households feel about the economy and their finances, not stocks. The Conference Board's index inched up to 91.2 in June 2026, but that is among the weakest readings in a decade and the lowest June print in over ten years (see the table below).

The internals were mixed. The Present Situation Index fell 3.0 points to 116.4, while the Expectations Index rose to 74.4, still under the 80 line that has historically warned of recession. The share of consumers saying jobs are 'hard to get' climbed to 22.5%, a five-and-a-half-year high (Conference Board).

The University of Michigan's rival gauge tells a similar gloomy story with a hopeful twist. The preliminary July 2026 reading jumped 9.9% to 54.4, the highest since February, as falling gasoline prices eased household budgets (U. Michigan).

Even after that bounce, 54.4 is dramatically below the 61.7 posted a year earlier and near historic lows for the series. Year-ahead inflation expectations also cooled, to 4.2% from 4.6% in June. The takeaway: consumers feel a little less bad, but they are still historically downbeat.

One of the most striking features of 2026 is the gap between depressed consumer confidence and fully-invested markets. Households are as gloomy as they were in past recessions, yet stocks sit near records and professional cash is at a low. That divergence is unusual and hard to sustain.

History offers no clean rule here. Weak confidence sometimes precedes recessions and sometimes marks a wall of worry that stocks climb. What sentiment analysts watch is whether the two converge: either consumers cheer up as the economy holds, or markets buckle toward the mood on Main Street.

Retail surveys capture opinions; positioning data captures money. The NAAIM Exposure Index polls active investment managers on their actual average equity exposure, on a scale from -200% (leveraged short) to +200% (leveraged long). A recent 2026 reading was about 77, against a first-quarter average near 82 (via NAAIM, secondary source flagged).

A reading of 77 means managers were, on average, roughly three-quarters invested in stocks: constructive but not maxed out. Unlike the crowd-fade logic of retail surveys, NAAIM shows where tactical professionals are actually leaning, and mid-70s exposure is a moderately bullish stance rather than an all-in bet.

Bank of America's monthly survey of global fund managers is the institutional sentiment benchmark. In July 2026 it turned decisively bullish: average cash fell to a record-low 3.6% (from 4.1%), tripping the bank's contrarian sell signal, which fires when cash drops below 4% (see the table below).

Its Bull & Bear Indicator hit an extreme 9.4 (readings above 8.0 are a sell), the composite sentiment gauge rose to 7.2, and a record share expected 'no landing' for the economy. Tellingly, 45% named an AI bubble as the top tail risk, the crowd was bullish and worried at the same time (source: BofA via Reuters, proprietary survey flagged).

How much investors borrow to buy stocks is a raw measure of greed, and it is at an all-time high. FINRA reported margin debt of $1.42 trillion in May 2026, up 8.5% in a single month and 53.7% year over year, the ninth straight monthly increase (see the chart below).

Leverage is stretched by every yardstick: margin debt is about 4.1% of GDP versus a 50-year median near 1.5%, and investors' net cash position hit a record low of about -$992 billion. Rising leverage amplifies gains on the way up and losses on the way down, which is why record margin debt makes contrarians uneasy (FINRA).

Options flow adds another sentiment lens. The CBOE total put/call ratio was 0.86 on July 9, 2026 (a 9-day average of 0.92), meaning slightly more puts than the norm, which contrarians read as caution rather than euphoria. The total ratio typically hovers between 0.9 and 1.0; equity-only ratios run lower.

Zoom out to households and the picture flips to greed: stocks now make up a record 45% of household financial assets, per Federal Reserve Z.1 data reported by Axios, with equities at roughly 33% of total household wealth. Americans have never had more of their money riding on the stock market.

The oldest lesson in sentiment analysis is to fade the crowd at extremes: be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. The trouble is that extremes are rare and hard to time. In mid-2026 the signals are mixed, retail surveys are near neutral, but institutional cash and margin debt scream greed.

For a long-term investor the practical move is not to trade on any single gauge but to use them as a discipline check. Record-low cash and record margin debt are reasons to make sure your own risk is deliberate: keep an emergency fund in cash, avoid leverage you cannot stomach, and rebalance toward your targets rather than chasing whichever mood the tape is in. None of this is investment advice.