ADT Inc. (ADT) Stock Price & How to Invest

ADT Inc. provides security, interactive, and smart-home solutions to residential and small-business customers across the United States, with its core business built on professionally installed and monitored alarm systems billed as recurring monthly revenue (RMR). The company reported total revenue of roughly $5.1 billion for full-year 2025 and end-of-period RMR of about $359 million (around $4.3 billion annualized), with monitoring and related services making up the large majority of revenue. Partnerships with Google (devices and AI) and State Farm (insurance-linked distribution), plus its February 2026 acquisition of Origin AI for Wi-Fi sensing, are meant to modernize the offering and improve retention.

The investment picture centers on a mature, cash-generative subscription model rather than rapid growth. ADT's 2026 outlook guides to roughly flat revenue and adjusted EPS with a focus on efficiency, disciplined subscriber acquisition, and capital returns (a new $1.5 billion buyback plus a small dividend). The main counterweights are a large net debt balance of roughly $7.5 billion, gross revenue attrition around 13 percent, and fierce competition from lower-cost DIY and camera-first players like Ring and SimpliSafe that are reshaping how consumers buy home security.

ADT carries substantial leverage, with net debt of roughly $7.5 billion, so higher-for-longer interest rates raise refinancing and interest costs. Gross revenue attrition near 13 percent means the company must continually replace lost subscribers just to stay flat. Competition from lower-cost DIY and camera-first players such as Ring (Amazon) and SimpliSafe pressures pricing and share, and the broad shift toward app-managed, self-installed systems challenges ADT's professional-install model. Revenue and adjusted EPS are guided roughly flat for 2026, so the equity story depends heavily on cash flow and buybacks rather than growth. Any weakening in consumer spending or housing activity could slow new subscriber additions.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see ADT Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (FY2025): ~$5.1B
• Recurring monthly revenue (RMR): ~$359M (~$4.3B annualized)
• Adjusted EPS (FY2025): ~$0.89
• Adjusted free cash flow (FY2025, incl. swaps): ~$863M
• Market cap: ~$5.6-6.4B
• Net debt (Mar 2026): ~$7.5B

ADT trades as a leveraged, cash-generative subscription business, with an enterprise value well above its equity value because of the large debt load. Full-year 2025 revenue grew about 5 percent while 2026 guidance points to roughly flat revenue and adjusted EPS with an emphasis on free cash flow. The stock has traded in the high single digits per share, and the small dividend plus a $1.5 billion buyback authorization frame much of the capital-return case.

There are three common ways to get ADT exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic basket, so ADT sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the basket route. Describe a thesis where ADT fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

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ADT is a subscription-driven security incumbent whose story is durable recurring revenue and capital returns weighed against a heavy debt load and intensifying DIY competition.

Whether ADT is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is ADT a buy?, and where the stock could go from here in the ADT stock forecast.

For income investors, whether ADT pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does ADT pay a dividend?