Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Stock Price & How to Invest

Century Aluminum smelts primary aluminium and sells it as ingot, billet and other value-added shapes. Its US footprint centres on Sebree in Kentucky and Mt. Holly in South Carolina; Grundartangi in Iceland supplies the European market on low-carbon hydro and geothermal power; a carbon anode plant in the Netherlands feeds the smelters; and a majority stake in Jamalco covers bauxite mining and alumina refining in Jamaica, giving the group partial control of its own raw material. Roughly 2,906 people work across those sites. Chicago is the corporate base, and Glencore, a commodity trading house and long-time commercial partner, holds close to ~30% of the shares.

What makes the stock behave the way it does is operating leverage. Century sells a commodity at a price it does not set, against a cost base that moves slowly, so a modest change in the realised aluminium price or the regional delivery premium swings earnings violently. Two things have gone its way at once. Section 232 tariffs at 50% on imported aluminium pushed the US Midwest premium to records, and realised Midwest premium reached ~$2,480 per tonne in the second quarter of 2026 against ~$450 per tonne in Europe. At the same time three restart and expansion projects finished, so idle capacity turned into shipped metal exactly when metal was worth the most. Trailing net income of roughly ~$600M against ~$41.8M for full-year 2025 is the arithmetic of that coincidence, and it works in reverse if premiums normalise.

Aluminium is a commodity and Century's earnings track its price with almost no cushion, which is why the shares carry a beta near ~2.0 and why full-year 2025 net income of ~$41.8M sat alongside trailing net income near ~$600M a year later. Much of the current spread comes from tariff policy rather than operations, so a change in Section 232 rates or exemptions would compress the Midwest premium and the margin with it. Oklahoma's attorney general filed suit on June 3, 2026 seeking to block the planned Oklahoma smelter, an action that bears on the project timeline rather than existing production; separately, the plaintiff firm Kahn Swick & Foti announced an investigation of the officers and directors in 2025, which is a solicitation notice and not a filed securities class action. Operationally, management has flagged higher summer energy costs, hedge settlement effects, lower-quality bauxite at Jamalco and lingering instability from the Mt. Holly restart. Glencore's roughly ~30% holding, trimmed by a 6.3 million share block trade in March 2026, remains a supply overhang, and short interest of about ~9.9% of the float means positioning can amplify moves in either direction.

3 analysts publish price targets on CENX, averaging $74.00 against a $51.88 price as of August 2026, or +42.6%. The published targets run from $65.00 to $83.00, a narrow spread, and the ratings split 3 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 5 raises and 1 cut among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full CENX forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Century Aluminum Company. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. The Midwest premium and Section 232. US buyers pay a delivery premium on top of the LME aluminium price, and tariffs are what widened it. The most optimistic published target, $83.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Aluminium is a commodity and Century's earnings track its price with almost no cushion, which is why the shares carry a beta near ~2.0 and why full-year 2025 net income of ~$41.8M sat alongside trailing net income near ~$600M a year later. The most pessimistic target, $65.00, is roughly what CENX is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on CENX, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Century Aluminum Company's investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$2.67B
• Net income (TTM): ~$600M
• EPS (TTM): ~$5.79 to ~$6.02
• Market cap: ~$5.14B
• P/E (TTM): ~8.5x
• Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA / Q3 guide: ~$327M / ~$325M to ~$345M

Trailing multiples look undemanding at roughly ~8.5x earnings and about ~1.9x sales, and forward estimates screen near ~3x, but a low-single-digit forward multiple on a smelter usually says the market doubts the earnings are durable rather than that the shares are cheap. Second quarter revenue of ~$752M came in under consensus near ~$819M while adjusted EPS of ~$2.46 beat an estimate of ~$2.35, a split that tells you the beat came from price and mix rather than volume. Anything built off a peak Midwest premium is worth re-checking against the premium itself before it is treated as a run rate.

Other names that sit close to CENX: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get CENX exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so CENX sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where CENX fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

Century is a high-beta bet on US aluminium pricing and tariff policy, currently earning at a rate its long history would call exceptional.

Whether CENX is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is CENX a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the CENX stock forecast.

For income investors, whether CENX pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does CENX pay a dividend? And to weigh CENX against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: CENX vs AA and CENX vs RIO.