AA vs AGO: How Alcoa Corporation and Assured Guaranty Compare (2026)

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: AA is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. AA and AGO share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined AA and AGO exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Alcoa Corporation is one of the world's largest upstream aluminum companies, running the full chain from bauxite mining to alumina refining to aluminum smelting. It reports in two segments: Alumina (roughly 2.4 million metric tons produced in Q1 2026) and Aluminum (about 607,000 metric tons in the same quarter). Because it sells raw and semi-finished metal into global markets, Alcoa is a price-taker: its revenue and margins are driven mainly by the London Metal Exchange aluminum price and the alumina price index, plus its own energy and raw-material costs. That makes it different from downstream fabricators like Arconic that sell finished, engineered products at steadier margins.

Full AA guide

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda-domiciled financial guaranty holding company whose operating subsidiaries insure the timely payment of principal and interest on municipal bonds, infrastructure financings and structured credit. When an issuer buys a wrap from Assured, the bond carries Assured's AA financial strength rating instead of the issuer's own, which lowers the issuer's borrowing cost and gives investors a second source of payment. The company collects an upfront or installment premium, earns it into income over the life of the bond, and invests the proceeds. It also owns roughly 30% of Sound Point Capital Management, a large CLO and alternative credit manager formed in 2023 when Assured contributed its asset management arm, and in January 2026 it added Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd., a life and annuity reinsurance platform bought for about ~$158 million that writes UK pension risk transfer and US multi-year guaranteed annuity business.

Full AGO guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• AA drivers: Aluminum price and supply gap; San Ciprian restart and higher volumes.
• AGO drivers: Buybacks as the core compounding engine; New business production and a wider credit-spread market.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The dominant risk is commodity price cyclicality: with revenue tied to aluminum and alumina indices, a global slowdown or a swing in Chinese supply can compress earnings quickly, as Q1 2026's weaker alumina pricing already showed. For AGO, the largest structural risk is that the insured portfolio runs off faster than new business replaces it, so earned premium shrinks even when underwriting is good.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick AA if you believe its drivers more; AGO if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the AA and AGO guides.

AA. Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; verify live numbers before acting. For a cyclical producer, a low forward P/E can be a trap because it reflects peak-cycle earnings that may not repeat if metal prices fall, so earnings multiples on Alcoa mean less than where aluminum prices sit in the cycle. Analyst targets skew bullish on the aluminum supply-gap thesis, but that view is a bet on the commodity as much as on the company.

AGO. The persistent gap between a ~$83 share price and ~$124 of GAAP shareholders' equity per share (let alone ~$189 of adjusted book value, which capitalizes future premium already contracted) is the whole debate around this stock: the market applies a discount because a monoline's liabilities are long-dated, hard to model and tail-heavy. Trailing revenue of ~$814M is down year over year and quarterly figures are volatile, since Q1 2026 revenue of ~$261M beat expectations on adjusted operating EPS of ~$2.50 while consensus for Q2 2026, reported August 6, sat near ~$1.51 on materially lower revenue. Shares outstanding of ~44 million are down dramatically over the past decade, and the ~$1.52 annual dividend (~1.8% yield) is a secondary part of the capital return story next to repurchases.

Headline figures (approximate, July 2026): AA shows revenue (ttm) ~$13 billion (Q1 2026 was ~$3.19 billion, down ~5% year over year), net income (q1 2026) ~$425 million attributable to common shareholders, diluted eps (q1 2026) ~$1.60 (adjusted ~$1.40), market cap ~$12.4 billion (stock ~$47 per share); AGO shows share price ~$83, market cap ~$3.7B, revenue (ttm) ~$814M, net income (ttm) / eps ~$411M, ~$8.70 per share.

AA and AGO are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined AA and AGO exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.