AEM vs HMY: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: HMY is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. AEM and HMY share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined AEM and HMY exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Agnico Eagle Mines is a senior gold producer and, by market value, one of the three largest gold miners in the world alongside Newmont and Barrick. It mines and sells gold from a portfolio of operations concentrated in low-risk jurisdictions: Canada is the core, complemented by mines in Australia, Finland, and Mexico. Because it sells a globally priced commodity, Agnico is largely a price-taker: its revenue moves with the gold price, while a large share of its mining costs are relatively fixed. That combination gives it operating leverage, meaning profits can rise faster than the gold price in a strong market and fall faster in a weak one.

Full AEM guide

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is South Africa's largest gold producer, operating a mix of deep-level underground and surface mines across South Africa plus the Hidden Valley open-pit mine in Papua New Guinea. In FY2025 (year ended June 2025) the group produced about 46,023 kg of gold (roughly 1.5 million ounces) and reported revenue of about $4.07 billion, up 24%, helped by an average received gold price around US$2,620 per ounce. Because it sells gold into global markets, Harmony is largely a price-taker: its revenue and margins are driven by the dollar gold price, the rand/dollar exchange rate, and its own mining costs, which run higher than many peers because of the depth and age of its South African orebodies.

Full HMY guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• AEM drivers: Leverage to a strong gold price; Low-cost operations in stable jurisdictions.
• HMY drivers: Gold price and margin leverage; Copper diversification.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The dominant risk is the gold price itself. For HMY, the dominant risk is gold-price cyclicality: because Harmony is a higher-cost producer, a sustained drop in bullion or a stronger rand can compress margins quickly, and its low headline P/E can flatter peak-cycle earnings.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick AEM if you believe its drivers more; HMY if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the AEM and HMY guides.

AEM. At about 16 times trailing and 15 times forward earnings, Agnico trades at a modest multiple for a company earning a 40% net margin, but those margins rest on an exceptionally high gold price and could compress fast if bullion falls. Analysts expect EPS of about $12.03 in 2026 and only about $12.39 in 2027, so the market is pricing a plateau, not continued growth. Third-quarter results on October 28, 2026 carry a consensus of about $2.88 per share; figures here are approximate as of October 16, 2026.

HMY. Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; verify live numbers before acting. Harmony reports on a June fiscal year in rand and US dollars, so US-dollar results also reflect rand/dollar moves. At roughly 6x trailing earnings after a record year, the ADR is priced as if peak-cycle profits will not last, and for a higher-cost gold producer that skepticism has a basis: the multiple depends far more on where gold sits in its cycle, and on whether the copper build stays on budget, than on the last year's results.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): AEM shows share price / market cap ~$189 (Oct 16, 2026), ~$96 billion, revenue (ttm) ~$14.5 billion; Q2 2026 ~$3.8 billion, up ~35% year over year, margins (ttm) ~75% gross, ~58% operating, ~40% net, net income (ttm) ~$5.9 billion, EPS ~$11.69; Q2 2026 EPS $3.05 vs ~$2.91 expected; HMY shows revenue (fy2026, year ended june 2026) ~R99.2 billion (up ~34% from ~R73.9 billion), net income (fy2026) ~R29.4 billion (roughly double FY2025); profit margin ~30%, gold production (fy2026) ~1.43 million ounces, plus ~18,200 tonnes of copper, received gold price / aisc (fy2026) ~$3,800/oz / just under $2,200/oz; AISC margin ~42%.

AEM and HMY are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined AEM and HMY exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.