AES vs RUN: How The AES Corporation and Sunrun Compare (2026)

Same yardstick, side by side (as of July 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: AES is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. AES and RUN share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined AES and RUN exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

The AES Corporation is a global electricity company that operates across four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies. It owns or operates a generation fleet of roughly 34,740 megawatts spanning solar, wind, hydro, energy storage, gas, and legacy coal, and it distributes power to about 2.7 million utility customers. A key growth engine has been its renewables development pipeline, with a signed power purchase agreement backlog of about 12.6 gigawatts (around 5.6 GW under construction) as of March 2026, much of it tied to surging electricity demand from AI and cloud data centers. The company has been executing a coal exit while leaning into contracted clean generation and its regulated US utilities.

Full AES guide

Sunrun (RUN) is the largest residential solar company in the United States. It designs, installs, finances, and services rooftop solar panel systems and home battery storage for homeowners. Its core model is not selling panels outright but offering solar as a service: customers sign long-term leases or power purchase agreements (PPAs) and pay little or nothing upfront, while Sunrun owns the system and collects recurring payments over 20-plus years. This builds a large, contracted base of future cash flows.

Full RUN guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• AES drivers: Pending $15.00 cash acquisition; Renewables backlog and data-center demand.
• RUN drivers: Storage attach rates; Recurring subscriber base.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The largest risk is deal-specific: a delay, regulatory block, or renegotiation of the $15.00 cash acquisition would remove the price support the stock currently enjoys. For RUN, sunrun is highly sensitive to interest rates because its model depends on financing long-term contracts; higher rates raise its cost of capital and compress the value of future cash flows.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick AES if you believe its drivers more; RUN if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the AES and RUN guides.

AES. AES trades around the $15.00 cash offer, so headline multiples (a trailing P/E near the low teens and a forward P/E that looks low on 2026 estimates) matter less than the fixed deal price and the odds and timing of a close. The high debt load, roughly $31 billion, is typical of a capital-intensive utility but is a key reason the enterprise value (around $33 billion) is far larger than the equity value. Figures are approximate and drawn from mid-2026 filings and market data.

RUN. Sunrun is valued on the long-term contracted value of its subscriber base and its storage and grid-services optionality rather than current GAAP earnings, which are often negative. The valuation is unusually rate- and policy-sensitive: it benefits from lower rates and supportive incentives, and compresses sharply when rates rise or tax-credit and net-metering policy turns less favorable.

Headline figures (approximate, July 2026): AES shows revenue (ttm) ~$12.6B, q1 2026 revenue ~$3.18B (+9% YoY), market cap ~$10.7B, acquisition price $15.00/share cash; RUN shows revenue (ttm) ~$2 billion, subscriber base Roughly 1 million-plus customers, storage attach rate Rising (large share of new installs), operating margin Volatile; often negative GAAP.

AES and RUN are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined AES and RUN exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.