AGO vs MTG: How Assured Guaranty and MGIC Investment Corporation Compare (2026)

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: MTG is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. AGO and MTG share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined AGO and MTG exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda-domiciled financial guaranty holding company whose operating subsidiaries insure the timely payment of principal and interest on municipal bonds, infrastructure financings and structured credit. When an issuer buys a wrap from Assured, the bond carries Assured's AA financial strength rating instead of the issuer's own, which lowers the issuer's borrowing cost and gives investors a second source of payment. The company collects an upfront or installment premium, earns it into income over the life of the bond, and invests the proceeds. It also owns roughly 30% of Sound Point Capital Management, a large CLO and alternative credit manager formed in 2023 when Assured contributed its asset management arm, and in January 2026 it added Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd., a life and annuity reinsurance platform bought for about ~$158 million that writes UK pension risk transfer and US multi-year guaranteed annuity business.

Full AGO guide

MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG) is the holding company for Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation, one of the largest private mortgage insurers in the United States. Private mortgage insurance protects lenders and investors against losses when borrowers with high loan-to-value mortgages (typically less than a 20% down payment) default, which lets more people buy homes with smaller down payments. MGIC earns recurring premium income from its large insurance-in-force portfolio (roughly $303 billion as of early 2026), and policies generally stay in force until borrowers refinance, sell, or build enough equity to cancel coverage. It remained the No. 1 private mortgage insurer by market share heading into 2026.

Full MTG guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• AGO drivers: Buybacks as the core compounding engine; New business production and a wider credit-spread market.
• MTG drivers: Recurring premium from insurance-in-force; Aggressive capital return.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The largest structural risk is that the insured portfolio runs off faster than new business replaces it, so earned premium shrinks even when underwriting is good. For MTG, mGIC's core business is highly dependent on the housing market and employment, so its main structural risk is the credit cycle.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick AGO if you believe its drivers more; MTG if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the AGO and MTG guides.

AGO. The persistent gap between a ~$83 share price and ~$124 of GAAP shareholders' equity per share (let alone ~$189 of adjusted book value, which capitalizes future premium already contracted) is the whole debate around this stock: the market applies a discount because a monoline's liabilities are long-dated, hard to model and tail-heavy. Trailing revenue of ~$814M is down year over year and quarterly figures are volatile, since Q1 2026 revenue of ~$261M beat expectations on adjusted operating EPS of ~$2.50 while consensus for Q2 2026, reported August 6, sat near ~$1.51 on materially lower revenue. Shares outstanding of ~44 million are down dramatically over the past decade, and the ~$1.52 annual dividend (~1.8% yield) is a secondary part of the capital return story next to repurchases.

MTG. MGIC trades at a low single-digit-to-high-single-digit earnings multiple and near book value (book value per share around $24), reflecting the market's discount for cyclical mortgage-insurance earnings. Q1 2026 delivered net income of about $165 million and an annualized return on equity near 13%, with revenue of about $297 million that slightly missed estimates as net premiums earned edged down year over year. Valuation figures are approximate and move with the stock price.

Headline figures (approximate, August 2026): AGO shows share price ~$83, market cap ~$3.7B, revenue (ttm) ~$814M, net income (ttm) / eps ~$411M, ~$8.70 per share; MTG shows revenue (ttm) ~$1.2B, net income (ttm) ~$738M, q1 2026 net income ~$165M ($0.76/sh), market cap ~$5.6B.

AGO and MTG are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined AGO and MTG exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.