ALL vs PGR: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: ALL is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ALL and PGR share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ALL and PGR exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Allstate collects premiums from roughly 216 million policies in force and pays claims on them, keeping the difference plus whatever its large investment portfolio earns. Auto insurance is the biggest single line, followed by homeowners, with additional revenue from protection plans, roadside services and identity protection sold under the Allstate Protection Plans banner. Distribution runs through exclusive and independent agents, direct online and phone channels, and the National General and Direct Auto brands that reach non-standard and lower-premium drivers. Over 2022 and 2023 the auto book was badly underwater as used-car values, parts costs and repair labor all inflated faster than approved rates, which is why fiscal 2023 closed at a net loss of roughly $316 million on about $57.1 billion of revenue.

Full ALL guide

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR), founded in 1937 and headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio, is one of the largest property and casualty insurers in the United States. Its Personal Lines segment writes auto insurance for individuals and special-lines products covering motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft, while its Property segment provides homeowners and renters coverage. The Commercial Lines segment insures trucks, vans, and other commercial vehicles, and the company also offers small-business general liability and workers' compensation for the transportation industry. Revenue is almost entirely premium-driven: premiums are collected upfront, claims and expenses are paid out, and the difference (the underwriting profit) is augmented by income from a sizable investment portfolio. In 2025, Personal Lines wrote roughly $72.6 billion of total premiums and ended the year with approximately 37.4 million policies in force. Progressive has been publicly traded since 1965 and is led by CEO Susan Griffith, who has run the company since 2016 after rising through its claims and marketing functions. The company reports monthly operating results, a practice that provides unusually high transparency relative to insurance-industry peers. CFO John Sauerland, a long-tenured executive, announced his retirement in 2026, creating a management transition that investors are watching closely.

Full PGR guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• ALL drivers: Underwriting margin at the top of the cycle; Growth restarted after years of shrinking on purpose.
• PGR drivers: Telematics moat deepens with scale; Market-share momentum is accelerating.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Catastrophe exposure is the structural risk: a single severe hurricane, wildfire or convective-storm season can move a quarter by billions, and homeowners growth increases that exposure. For PGR, the most direct risk is that favorable underwriting conditions normalize: industry-wide profitability in private auto in 2025 was historically high, and that is already attracting competitive re-entry from rivals that had previously pulled back.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ALL if you believe its drivers more; PGR if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ALL and PGR guides.

ALL. The trailing multiple near 5.3x is misleading on its own. Trailing net income of roughly $13.2 billion includes one-time gains from the 2025 divestitures of the benefits and group health businesses plus an unusually favorable underwriting year, so the forward multiple near 9.7x is the more representative figure and implies the market expects earnings to normalize well below the trailing level. Second quarter 2026 adjusted net income, which strips out investment gains and non-recurring items, was about $2.3 billion or $8.99 per diluted share against roughly $1.6 billion a year earlier.

PGR. Progressive's trailing P/E of roughly 10.5x sits meaningfully below its own 5-year average of approximately 34x and below the broader U.S. insurance industry average of roughly 11.7x, largely because 2025 earnings were at a cyclical peak and consensus expects some normalization ahead. The 87.4% combined ratio is the clearest single expression of underwriting quality: every dollar of premium collected generated roughly $0.13 of underwriting profit before investment income is counted. However, analysts project EPS to decline modestly over the next few years as competition intensifies and the cycle moderates, which helps explain why the market is not rewarding peak earnings with a peak multiple.

Headline figures (approximate, August 2026): ALL shows market cap ~$67.5B, revenue (ttm) ~$70.1B, net income (ttm) ~$13.2B, trailing p/e ~5.3x; PGR shows revenue (fy 2025) ~$87.6 billion, net earnings (fy 2025) ~$11.3 billion, eps (fy 2025) ~$19.29, net margin (recent) ~13%.

ALL and PGR are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ALL and PGR exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.