AVAH vs HHH: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of September 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: AVAH is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. AVAH and HHH share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined AVAH and HHH exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings runs home and community care across 39 states, with concentrations in Texas, Pennsylvania and California. The largest business by far is Private Duty Services, which supplies skilled private duty nursing, therapy, school nursing and personal care to medically complex and chronically ill children, and which produced ~$536 million of the ~$648 million of first-quarter 2026 revenue. A smaller Home Health and Hospice segment (~$67 million in the quarter) serves mostly elderly patients and is paid by Medicare, and a Medical Solutions segment (~$46 million) delivers enteral nutrition and related products. Gross margins differ sharply by segment: ~27.9% in private duty nursing, ~53.7% in home health and hospice, ~44.7% in medical solutions, so mix shifts move the consolidated number.

Full AVAH guide

Howard Hughes Holdings develops and owns master planned communities, which are large tracts of land the company entitles, installs infrastructure on, and then sells piece by piece to homebuilders and commercial users over decades. Its communities include Summerlin outside Las Vegas, The Woodlands, Bridgeland and The Woodlands Hills around Houston, Columbia in Maryland, and Teravalis in the Phoenix west valley. Alongside the land business it develops for-sale condominiums at Ward Village in Honolulu, and it keeps a portfolio of office, retail and multifamily buildings inside its own communities that produces recurring net operating income. The company was spun out of General Growth Properties in 2010 and is a taxable C-corporation, not a REIT, which is what lets it retain development profits rather than distribute them. It separated its non-core New York and entertainment assets into Seaport Entertainment Group in 2024.

Full HHH guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• AVAH drivers: State Medicaid rate increases versus caregiver wages; Preferred payer agreements and government affairs.
• HHH drivers: The master planned community land engine; Ward Village condominium deliveries.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Payer concentration is the dominant risk: with ~81% of revenue tied to Medicaid and Medicaid managed care, a single adverse state budget or rate freeze reaches the income statement directly, and the Medicaid funding changes in the 2025 federal tax law leave states with less room to be generous. For HHH, land sales depend on homebuilder appetite, which tracks mortgage rates and regional job growth, so a housing slowdown in Las Vegas, Houston or Phoenix would show up quickly in segment earnings.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick AVAH if you believe its drivers more; HHH if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the AVAH and HHH guides.

AVAH. Fiscal 2025 GAAP net income of ~$225.0M is not a clean earnings number: pre-tax income was only ~$106.9M, and the difference came mostly from a non-cash tax benefit tied to releasing a deferred tax valuation allowance, which is why a trailing P/E on AVAH looks far cheaper than the business is. Enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA is the more comparable frame, and near 10x it prices Aveanna between slower Medicare home health peers and faster-growing home and community platforms. Second-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for August 13, 2026, and the figures above predate them.

HHH. Trailing multiples are close to meaningless here, because the twelve-month revenue figure blends whatever condominium towers happened to close with less than a month of insurance premiums from Vantage. Analysts and the company itself have historically framed value as a sum of the parts: the remaining sellable land in each community, the capitalised value of the operating portfolio, the profit in the condominium backlog, and now an insurance business bought for roughly $2.1 billion. The share price near $66.60 sits well below the $100 Pershing Square paid in 2025, and the minority stockholders suing over that deal argued the $100 price was itself below net asset value.

Headline figures (approximate, August 2026): AVAH shows revenue (ttm) ~$2.52B through Q1 2026 (fiscal 2025 was ~$2.43B), q1 2026 results Revenue ~$647.9M (+15.9%), net income ~$41.7M (~$0.19 diluted), adjusted EBITDA ~$84.4M (+25.2%), fy2026 guidance Revenue ~$2.63B to ~$2.65B, adjusted EBITDA ~$338M to ~$342M, debt and leverage ~$1.48B total indebtedness and ~$189M cash at April 4, 2026 (~$1.29B net debt, near 4x guided adjusted EBITDA) before the ~$175.5M cash-funded acquisition; HHH shows revenue (ttm) ~$2.37 billion, market capitalization ~$3.98 billion, share price ~$66.60, q2 2026 revenue ~$1.12 billion, versus ~$260.9 million a year earlier.

AVAH and HHH are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined AVAH and HHH exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.