AWK vs ES: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated October 2026
Short answer
AWK and ES are similarly sized, but ES trades noticeably cheaper on forward earnings (13.56x vs 20.55x): the market is paying up for AWK's profile and pricing ES more conservatively, or for faster growth. Which you prefer comes down to the drivers you believe, and whether adding either over-concentrates what you already own.
AWK vs ES: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | AWK | ES | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $26.82B | $25.18B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 20.55 | 13.56 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 23.39 | 17.32 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 0.57 | 0.68 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 57% of range | 30% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 2.30 | 1.54 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: ES is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how AWK and ES affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. AWK and ES share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined AWK and ES exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does American Water Works (AWK) do?
American Water Works is the largest publicly traded, regulated water and wastewater utility in the United States, serving roughly 14 million people through regulated operations in 14 states plus 18 military installations. Its business model is classic rate-base utility economics: the company invests heavily in pipes, treatment plants, and water systems, then earns an allowed regulated return on that invested capital once state utility commissions approve rate cases. Growth comes from two levers, ongoing infrastructure spending and acquisitions of small municipal and investor-owned water systems that fold into its existing footprint.
What does Eversource Energy (ES) do?
Eversource Energy is a public utility holding company that delivers electricity and natural gas to roughly 4 million customers across Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Its earnings come almost entirely from regulated electric distribution, electric transmission, and gas distribution, where allowed returns and rate base (the capital investment regulators let it earn on) drive results. After several turbulent years, the company completed its exit from offshore wind in 2024 and closed the ~$2.4 billion sale of its Aquarion Water business in mid-2026, repositioning itself as a pure-play regulated utility focused on wires and pipes.
AWK vs ES: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- AWK drivers: Rate-base growth and capital investment; Acquisitions of municipal and small water systems.
- ES drivers: Rate-base growth from a large capital plan; Simplified pure-play regulated profile.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The biggest risk is regulatory: earnings depend on state utility commissions approving rate cases at constructive returns, and regulatory lag (the gap between when capital is spent and when rates are allowed to recover it) can pressure results. For ES, regulatory outcomes are the central risk: a FERC reduction to the base transmission ROE is expected to lower after-tax earnings by roughly $70 million in 2026 and contributed to a downward revision of full-year guidance.
AWK or ES: which should you pick?
AWK vs ES: the full fundamentals
AWK. As of October 2026 AWK trades at about 23x trailing and 20.5x forward earnings, a premium P/E to the broader utility group that reflects its regulated, low-volatility earnings and long runway of rate-base growth. The stock sits a few percent below the average analyst target of about $141 (a consensus Hold) and near the middle of its 52-week range of roughly $121 to $146. For Q3 2026, reported October 28, consensus calls for about $2.07 of EPS on $1.56 billion of revenue.
ES. Eversource beat Q1 2026 estimates with revenue of about $4.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.73, then met the $0.87 consensus in Q2, after trimming full-year non-GAAP guidance to roughly $4.57 to $4.72 to reflect the FERC ROE reduction and the loss of Aquarion earnings; consensus sits near $4.65. At about $66.75 on October 16, 2026 the stock trades near 17x trailing and about 13.5x forward earnings with a yield near 4.7 percent, toward the cheaper end for a regulated utility, where shares trade on rate-base growth, regulatory outcomes and interest rates more than on quarterly momentum. The average analyst target among 12 analysts was about $73.
Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): AWK shows revenue (ttm) ~$5.28 billion (+6.2% YoY latest quarter), q2 2026 adjusted eps ~$1.61 (vs ~$1.55 consensus), net income (ttm) ~$1.13 billion (~21% margin), 2026 eps guidance ~$6.02 to $6.12 (consensus ~$6.08); ES shows revenue (ttm) ~$14.0B, net income (ttm) ~$1.45B (profit margin ~10%), market cap ~$25.1B, 2026 eps consensus ~$4.65 (2027: ~$4.93).
The bottom line: AWK vs ES
AWK and ES are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined AWK and ES exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how AWK or ES fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in American Water Works with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how AWK fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between AWK and ES?
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American Water Works is the largest publicly traded, regulated water and wastewater utility in the United States, serving roughly 14 million people through regulated operations in 14 states plus 18 military installations. Eversource Energy is a public utility holding company that delivers electricity and natural gas to roughly 4 million customers across Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is AWK or ES the better stock?
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Neither is universally better; they suit different views and risk levels. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, AWK or ES?
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On forward P/E (as of October 2026), AWK trades at 20.55x and ES at 13.56x, so ES is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both AWK and ES?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of AWK vs ES?
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AWK: The biggest risk is regulatory: earnings depend on state utility commissions approving rate cases at constructive returns, and regulatory lag (the gap between when capital is spent and when rates are allowed to recover it) can pressure results. As a capital-intensive utility carrying about $16 billion of debt against roughly $227 million of cash, AWK is sensitive to interest rates, which raise financing costs and can compress the valuation multiple. The pending Essential Utilities merger adds integration and approval risk, and could be delayed or altered by remaining regulators. Weather, drought, and water-quality or environmental compliance costs can also affect a given period. Finally, the stock often trades at a premium valuation, so disappointing rate outcomes or higher-for-longer rates can weigh on the shares. ES: Regulatory outcomes are the central risk: a FERC reduction to the base transmission ROE is expected to lower after-tax earnings by roughly $70 million in 2026 and contributed to a downward revision of full-year guidance. State rate cases in Connecticut and Massachusetts have at times been contentious, which can pressure allowed returns and cost recovery; the Connecticut Light and Power rate case has hearings starting in February 2027 and a draft decision expected in May, and Connecticut's storm-cost ruling excluded carrying costs. Management says the newly appointed Connecticut commission is more stable, but that is a forecast, not an outcome. As a capital-intensive utility, Eversource is sensitive to interest rates, since higher rates raise financing costs and make its dividend yield less competitive versus bonds. Residual cost-sharing obligations from the offshore wind exit (up to roughly $240 million of potential overrun exposure shared with the buyer) remain an overhang. Analyst views are mixed (a consensus hold rating, with targets ranging from Scotiabank's $59 to Goldman Sachs' $80 in recent weeks). Finally, executing a multi-billion-dollar capital plan while managing leverage leaves limited room for operational or weather-related surprises.
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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell AWK or ES; figures are approximate and dated (as of October 2026). Verify current data before investing.