BFLY vs TMDX: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. BFLY and TMDX share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined BFLY and TMDX exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Butterfly Network designs and sells handheld ultrasound systems built on its proprietary Ultrasound-on-Chip technology, which replaces the traditional piezoelectric crystals in an ultrasound machine with a semiconductor sensor. That lets a single probe (the flagship iQ3) image the whole body and connect to a phone or tablet, and the company layers on subscription software, cloud storage, and AI tools that push clinicians toward higher-margin recurring revenue. Customers include hospitals, clinics, medical schools, and increasingly international and lower-resource settings where a $2,000-to-$5,000-range device is far cheaper than a cart-based system.

Full BFLY guide

TransMedics Group is a commercial-stage medical-technology company built around the Organ Care System (OCS), a portable device that perfuses donor organs with warm oxygenated blood to keep them functioning and assessable outside the body, an alternative to keeping organs on ice. It has FDA approval for OCS Heart, OCS Liver, and OCS Lung, including organs recovered from donors after circulatory death (DCD), which meaningfully expands the pool of usable organs. On top of the devices, TransMedics has built a National OCS Program (NOP) that provides organ retrieval surgeons, ground transport, and a growing owned aviation fleet, so the company now earns both product revenue from disposables and service revenue from logistics.

Full TMDX guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• BFLY drivers: Software and recurring-revenue mix shift; iQ3 probe and hardware refresh cycle.
• TMDX drivers: OCS adoption and DCD organ expansion; National OCS Program and owned logistics.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Butterfly remains unprofitable, with trailing losses of roughly $76M against about $103M of revenue as of Q1 2026, so it depends on its cash balance and, potentially, future capital raises that could dilute shareholders. For TMDX, transMedics depends heavily on the OCS platform and its National OCS Program, so any slowdown in transplant volumes, reimbursement changes, or clinical setbacks would hit results directly.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick BFLY if you believe its drivers more; TMDX if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the BFLY and TMDX guides.

BFLY. As of mid-2026, Butterfly generated roughly $103M in trailing revenue while posting net losses, and it guided to full-year 2026 revenue of about $117M to $121M with an adjusted-EBITDA loss of roughly $21M to $25M. With a market cap in the $1.5B-to-$2.3B range after a large share-price run, the stock trades at a high multiple of sales, so the valuation embeds substantial future growth. The roughly $138M cash balance gives it a multi-year runway at current burn rates.

TMDX. TransMedics traded around $76 in mid-July 2026, well below its 52-week high near $156 and closer to its low around $60, reflecting a large re-rating after margin pressure and earnings misses. The company remains profitable but thinly so, which makes valuation multiples sensitive to which earnings measure is used. The stock is priced as a high-growth medical-technology name, so continued 20%-plus revenue growth is largely an expectation rather than a cushion.

Headline figures (approximate, JUNE 2026): BFLY shows revenue (ttm) ~$103M, q1 2026 revenue growth ~25% YoY, fy2026 revenue guidance ~$117M to $121M, gross margin (q1 2026) ~69%; TMDX shows revenue (ttm) ~$636M, q1 2026 revenue ~$173.9M (+21% YoY), fy2026 revenue guidance ~$727M to $757M (20-25% growth), q1 2026 gross margin ~58% (down from ~61%).

BFLY and TMDX are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined BFLY and TMDX exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.