BXMT vs STWD: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Last updated August 2026

Short answer

STWD is the larger of the two ($6.25B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (8.69x forward earnings, beta 1.04). BXMT is the smaller challenger ($2.45B), priced similarly on forward earnings (8.27x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.

BXMT vs STWD: the tie-breaker metrics

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

MetricBXMTSTWDWhat it tells you
Market cap$2.45B$6.25BSize. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove.
Forward P/E8.278.69Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up.
Trailing P/E181.7527.88Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price.
Beta0.941.04Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through.
Price vs 52-week range7% of range18% of rangeWhere today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why.
Price / book0.730.91How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price.

Before you buy: how BXMT and STWD affect your concentration

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. BXMT and STWD share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined BXMT and STWD exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

What does Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) do?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a real estate finance company that originates, acquires, and manages senior loans and other credit-oriented investments collateralized by commercial real estate across North America, Europe, and Australia. Its portfolio is built around floating-rate senior mortgages on institutional-quality assets (industrial, multifamily, office, hospitality, and increasingly data centers and net lease), sponsored by well-capitalized owners. The company is externally managed by an affiliate of Blackstone, which gives it deal sourcing and underwriting scale but also means management fees flow to the parent. As a REIT, BXMT distributes most of its taxable income, and the stock is valued largely on dividend yield and book value per share.

Full BXMT guide

What does Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) do?

Starwood Property Trust originates and holds loans secured by commercial real estate, and it has widened well beyond that over the years. The company runs four businesses: commercial and residential lending, which carried a ~$17.3 billion commercial loan portfolio and produced ~$185.7 million of second-quarter distributable earnings; infrastructure lending, built on a book bought from GE; a property segment now anchored by the Fundamental Income net lease platform acquired in early 2026; and an investing and servicing arm whose LNR unit is one of the largest special servicers of securitized commercial mortgages in the United States. Total assets reached a record ~$31.8 billion at the end of June 2026. Management sits outside the company at Starwood Capital Group, an external structure that gives the REIT deal flow and also means fees leave the building.

Full STWD guide

BXMT vs STWD: how do they differ?

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

  • BXMT drivers: Dividend coverage and income; New deployment into growth property types.
  • STWD drivers: Redeploying idle and non-earning capital; Diversification beyond commercial mortgages.

Which fits which kind of investor

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The core risk is commercial real estate credit: further loan impairments, especially in office and older multifamily, could drive additional CECL reserves and erode book value, which has already declined to roughly $20 per share. For STWD, commercial real estate credit is the core exposure, and the current numbers are not clean: ~$775 million of loans on non-accrual, ~$920 million of foreclosed assets and roughly ~$1.0 billion carrying the two weakest internal risk ratings.

BXMT or STWD: which should you pick?

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick BXMT if you believe its drivers more; STWD if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the BXMT and STWD guides.

BXMT vs STWD: the full fundamentals

BXMT. BXMT trades around $17 to $19, a discount to its roughly $20.20 book value per share, which is common for commercial mortgage REITs still working through credit stress. Its Q1 2026 loan portfolio was about $16.4 billion across 130 loans with 98% performing, and distributable earnings prior to realized losses covered the dividend. The valuation is best read through price-to-book and dividend coverage rather than traditional earnings multiples.

STWD. A mortgage REIT is valued off book value and distributable earnings, not off the revenue line, which for Starwood understates a balance sheet more than thirty billion dollars in size. Shares near ~$16 sit below the ~$17.53 stated book value, a discount that reflects doubt about both the carrying value of troubled assets and the durability of the ~$0.48 quarterly dividend. Analysts trimmed targets in mid-August 2026, with JPMorgan moving to ~$18.50, Wells Fargo to ~$20 and Bank of America to ~$17, a cluster that still implies a narrower discount than where the stock trades.

Headline figures (approximate, July 2026): BXMT shows revenue (ttm) ~$600M, distributable eps (q1 2026, pre gains/losses) ~$0.49, book value per share ~$20.20, quarterly dividend ~$0.47; STWD shows distributable eps (ttm) ~$1.61, annual dividend / yield ~$1.92 (~12%), book value per share ~$17.53 (undepreciated ~$18.62), price to book ~0.9x.

The bottom line: BXMT vs STWD

BXMT and STWD are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined BXMT and STWD exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.

Wondering how BXMT or STWD fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.

Investing in Blackstone Mortgage Trust with AI

Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how BXMT fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.

FAQ

What is the difference between BXMT and STWD?

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Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a real estate finance company that originates, acquires, and manages senior loans and other credit-oriented investments collateralized by commercial real estate across North America, Europe, and Australia. Starwood Property Trust originates and holds loans secured by commercial real estate, and it has widened well beyond that over the years. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.

Is BXMT or STWD the better stock?

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Neither is universally better. STWD is the larger incumbent; BXMT is the smaller challenger and looks cheaper on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.

Which is cheaper, BXMT or STWD?

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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), BXMT trades at 8.27x and STWD at 8.69x, so BXMT is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.

Should you own both BXMT and STWD?

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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.

What are the risks of BXMT vs STWD?

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BXMT: The core risk is commercial real estate credit: further loan impairments, especially in office and older multifamily, could drive additional CECL reserves and erode book value, which has already declined to roughly $20 per share. The double-digit dividend yield reflects real market skepticism, and a dividend cut would likely trigger a sharp repricing. As an externally managed REIT, fees paid to the Blackstone affiliate create a potential conflict and a cost drag. Rate cuts can lower income on the floating-rate book, while a weak transaction market can slow both repayments and new originations. Leverage inherent to the model amplifies both gains and losses if credit conditions deteriorate. STWD: Commercial real estate credit is the core exposure, and the current numbers are not clean: ~$775 million of loans on non-accrual, ~$920 million of foreclosed assets and roughly ~$1.0 billion carrying the two weakest internal risk ratings. Office remains the most scrutinized category at ~9.6% of assets, split between ~7.6% domestic and ~2% international, and marks on those loans depend on appraisals that can move quickly. Leverage magnifies any credit error, with adjusted debt to equity around ~2.74x on balance sheet and ~3.41x including off-balance-sheet obligations. The dividend has exceeded distributable earnings for several quarters, so a reduction is a live possibility and would hit both the income and the share price at once. External management adds a fee layer and potential conflicts with other Starwood Capital vehicles, and a separate March 2026 lawsuit in the Southern District of New York over a ~$54.5 million securitized loan in Fort Lee, New Jersey is a reminder that origination decisions can come back as legal claims.

Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell BXMT or STWD; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.

    BXMT vs STWD: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? - Walnut AI Investing App