COST vs MCD: How Costco Wholesale and McDonald's Compare (2026)

Last updated July 2026

Short answer

COST is the larger of the two ($430.88B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (42.90x forward earnings, beta 0.87). MCD is the smaller challenger ($193.33B), cheaper on forward earnings (19.28x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.

COST vs MCD: the tie-breaker metrics

Same yardstick, side by side (as of July 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

MetricCOSTMCDWhat it tells you
Market cap$430.88B$193.33BSize. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove.
Forward P/E42.9019.28Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up.
Trailing P/E48.8022.45Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price.
Beta0.870.42Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through.
Price vs 52-week range51% of range14% of rangeWhere today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why.

Reading it: MCD is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

Before you buy: how COST and MCD affect your concentration

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. COST and MCD share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined COST and MCD exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

What does Costco Wholesale (COST) do?

Costco Wholesale operates a membership-based warehouse club chain. Members pay an annual fee (currently $65 for basic Gold Star, $130 for Executive) for access to Costco warehouses, where they can buy products at lower markups than traditional retailers. Costco operates approximately 900 warehouses globally, with the largest concentration in the United States plus meaningful presence in Canada, Mexico, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and other markets.

Full COST guide

What does McDonald's (MCD) do?

McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant company by system-wide sales, operating and franchising roughly 43,000 quick-service restaurants across more than 100 countries. The menu centers on burgers, fries, chicken, breakfast, and beverages. The business is fundamentally a franchising and real estate model: about 95% of McDonald's locations are owned and operated by independent franchisees, and the company collects rent and royalties on system sales rather than running most restaurants directly. This asset-light structure produces high margins and steady, recurring cash flow. McDonald's also owns much of the real estate beneath its restaurants, making property income a meaningful and durable revenue stream. Growth levers include digital ordering, delivery partnerships, the loyalty program, value menus, and the CosMc's beverage concept. Founded in 1955 and headquartered in Chicago, McDonald's is one of the most recognizable consumer brands in the world and a long-standing dividend grower.

Full MCD guide

COST vs MCD: how do they differ?

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

  • COST drivers: Membership fee growth; International expansion.
  • MCD drivers: Franchise and real estate model; Digital, delivery, and loyalty.

Which fits which kind of investor

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Costco's premium valuation embeds high expectations for continued same-store sales growth and margin expansion. For MCD, mcDonald's faces traffic pressure when value-seeking consumers cut discretionary spending or perceive fast food as no longer cheap after years of price increases.

COST or MCD: which should you pick?

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick COST if you believe its drivers more; MCD if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the COST and MCD guides.

COST vs MCD: the full fundamentals

COST. Costco trades at one of the highest P/E ratios in retail, reflecting the durable membership model, consistent same-store sales growth, and the long runway for international expansion. The premium is also driven by Costco being widely viewed as a quality compounder in retail. The valuation has compressed historically only during severe market drawdowns.

MCD. McDonald's trades at a premium to the broad market, reflecting the durability of its franchise and real estate model, its global scale, and a multi-decade dividend-growth record. The valuation embeds steady mid-single-digit system-sales growth and reliable cash generation rather than rapid expansion. The premium has historically compressed only during periods of weak same-store traffic.

Headline figures (approximate, early 2026): COST shows revenue (ttm) ~$260 billion, operating margin ~3.5% (low, by design; membership fees are the profit lever), net income (ttm) ~$7.5 billion, eps (ttm) ~$17.00; MCD shows revenue (ttm) ~$26 billion (company revenue; system-wide sales are far larger at ~$130 billion+), operating margin ~45% (high, due to the franchise and royalty model), net income (ttm) ~$8.5 billion, eps (ttm) ~$11.80.

The bottom line: COST vs MCD

COST and MCD are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined COST and MCD exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.

Investing in Costco Wholesale with AI

Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how COST fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.

FAQ

What is the difference between COST and MCD?

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Costco Wholesale operates a membership-based warehouse club chain. McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant company by system-wide sales, operating and franchising roughly 43,000 quick-service restaurants across more than 100 countries. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.

Is COST or MCD the better stock?

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Neither is universally better. COST is the larger incumbent; MCD is the smaller challenger and looks cheaper on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.

Which is cheaper, COST or MCD?

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On forward P/E (as of July 2026), COST trades at 42.90x and MCD at 19.28x, so MCD is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.

Should you own both COST and MCD?

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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.

What are the risks of COST vs MCD?

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COST: Costco's premium valuation embeds high expectations for continued same-store sales growth and margin expansion. Any consumer slowdown or competitive pressure from BJ's, Sam's Club, or Amazon would compress the multiple. MCD: McDonald's faces traffic pressure when value-seeking consumers cut discretionary spending or perceive fast food as no longer cheap after years of price increases. Heavy franchise reliance means franchisee health and labor costs matter to system performance. The company is exposed to commodity and wage inflation, foreign-currency swings given large international revenue, geopolitical boycotts in certain markets, and intense competition from Wendy's, Burger King, Chick-fil-A, and beverage-led chains. As a mature large cap, growth is incremental, and the premium valuation leaves limited room for execution missteps. Health and regulatory scrutiny of fast food is a persistent backdrop.

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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell COST or MCD; figures are approximate and dated (as of July 2026). Verify current data before investing.

    COST vs MCD: How Costco Wholesale and McDonald's Compare (2026), Walnut