FDX vs ZTO: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: ZTO is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. FDX and ZTO share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined FDX and ZTO exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

FedEx Corporation is one of the world's largest logistics and parcel-delivery companies, moving packages and freight for businesses and consumers across more than 200 countries. Historically it ran three big networks: Express (air and international), Ground (residential and business parcels), and Freight (less-than-truckload trucking). Its results track global trade, e-commerce volumes, business-to-business shipping, and fuel costs, and it competes in a mature, price-competitive industry where efficiency and network density decide who wins. Over the last few years FedEx has leaned hard into two transformation efforts: the DRIVE program, which targets structural cost reductions through route optimization, facility consolidation, and automation, and Network 2.0, which integrates the historically separate Express and Ground operations into one delivery network to cut redundant handling.

Full FDX guide

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. runs the biggest express delivery network in China, and it runs it through a partner-franchise model rather than owning the last mile. ZTO itself operates the expensive middle of the chain: 93 sorting hubs, more than 10,000 self-owned line-haul trucks and 780 sets of automated sorting equipment. Roughly 6,000 direct network partners and over 31,000 pickup and delivery outlets handle collection and doorstep delivery, paying ZTO a network transit fee per parcel. That structure is why ZTO earns operating margins near 20% in a business most Western investors associate with thin single-digit margins, and it is also why ZTO's economics depend on keeping franchisees profitable rather than squeezing them. Alongside core express, the company sells less-than-truckload freight, warehousing and distribution, and freight forwarding, though express delivery is around 93% of revenue.

Full ZTO guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• FDX drivers: DRIVE cost transformation; Network 2.0 integration.
• ZTO drivers: Anti-involution policy resetting industry pricing; Share gains from a widening cost advantage.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The central risk is competition and pricing pressure: UPS has a denser ground network, Amazon has built one of the fastest-growing delivery operations and shifted from customer to rival, and USPS reforms plus regional carriers pressure the cost-sensitive last mile. For ZTO, the obvious risk is that the anti-involution pricing discipline is policy-driven rather than structural, and a return to open price competition would compress per-parcel profit quickly across the whole industry.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick FDX if you believe its drivers more; ZTO if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the FDX and ZTO guides.

FDX. Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; verify live numbers before acting. FedEx is best understood as an execution-and-cost story: the market cares less about a single quarter's beat than about whether DRIVE savings and Network 2.0 keep lifting margins through the shipping cycle. The stock fell after the fiscal Q4 2026 report despite beating on EPS, because forward guidance was softer, which is a reminder that expectations move the shares as much as results. Confirm live revenue, EPS, guidance, and any post-spin comparability before drawing conclusions.

ZTO. ZTO trades at a discount to global parcel peers on earnings and at a large discount on growth-adjusted terms, with a PEG near 0.8, which reflects the China-listing discount as much as the business. Returns are respectable rather than spectacular for an asset-heavy network, with return on equity near 14.9% and return on invested capital near 16.5%. The gap between the ~14 trailing multiple and the ~11 forward multiple is the market pricing in the earnings recovery that the volume guidance and the pricing reset imply.

Headline figures (approximate, Jul 2026): FDX shows revenue (fiscal q4 2026) ~$25 billion for the quarter; full-year revenue in the tens of billions of dollars, adjusted eps (fiscal q4 2026) ~$6.31, above expectations (~$5.96 consensus), forward guidance Calendar-2026 adjusted EPS guided to roughly the high-teens per unit range; ~11% revenue growth targeted, structure change FedEx Freight (FDXF) spun off June 1, 2026; ~$4.1 billion cash paid to the parent; ZTO shows revenue (ttm) ~$7.5 billion (~RMB 51.5 billion), up ~13.9%, net income (ttm) ~$1.3 billion (~RMB 9.2 billion), net margin ~17.9%, market cap ~$17.9 billion (~759 million shares at ~$23.60), p/e ratio ~14.2 trailing, ~10.7 forward.

FDX and ZTO are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined FDX and ZTO exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.