GFL vs WM: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: WM is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. GFL and WM share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined GFL and WM exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

GFL Environmental is a Vaughan, Ontario-based environmental services company that collects, transfers, disposes of, and recycles solid waste across Canada and roughly 18 U.S. states. Built through aggressive acquisitions since its 2007 founding by Patrick Dovigi (the name stands for Green For Life), it grew into the fourth largest diversified environmental services operator in North America, with more than 15,000 employees and a dense network of collection routes, transfer stations, and landfills. Its revenue is largely recurring and contract-based, and it leans heavily on core pricing (raising rates ahead of inflation) plus tuck-in acquisitions to grow.

Full GFL guide

Waste Management, Inc. (branded WM) is the largest environmental-services company in North America, providing waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling to millions of residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers. Its core solid-waste business runs collection routes that feed transfer stations and, ultimately, the industry's most extensive network of landfills. That landfill network is the heart of WM's moat: permitting new landfills is extremely difficult, so owning disposal capacity lets WM capture value across the whole chain and price essential services steadily. WM is also the largest recycler in North America and a leader in turning landfill gas into energy.

Full WM guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• GFL drivers: Pricing-led organic growth; Post-divestiture deleveraging.
• WM drivers: Pricing power and recurring revenue; Sustainability, RNG, and recycling growth.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: GFL's growth has been built on acquisitions, which brings integration risk and a history of elevated leverage even after the recent paydown. For WM, wM is defensive but not risk-free.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick GFL if you believe its drivers more; WM if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the GFL and WM guides.

GFL. GFL reports in Canadian dollars, so its roughly $6.6 billion CAD of annual revenue converts to about $4.8 billion USD at recent exchange rates. The company has raised full-year guidance multiple times on pricing strength, and margins have expanded past 31 percent. With a market cap around $13 billion, GFL trades at a premium multiple typical of high-quality waste operators.

WM. These characteristics are qualitative and tied to the asOf date; verify live figures before acting. WM usually commands a premium multiple because investors pay up for defensive, recurring cash flows, an irreplaceable landfill moat, and a long record of dividend growth. That premium is a double-edged sword: it reflects quality, but it also means the stock can fall harder on any earnings miss or integration setback, and it leaves less margin of safety than a cheaper cyclical would.

Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): GFL shows revenue (ttm) ~$4.8B USD (~$6.6B CAD), market cap ~$13B USD, adjusted ebitda (fy2025 guide) ~$2.0B CAD, adjusted ebitda margin ~31%; WM shows revenue trend Large-cap scale with steady, mostly single-digit growth, now boosted by the added Stericycle/Healthcare Solutions revenue, profitability Consistently profitable with strong, relatively stable operating margins for an industrial, reflecting pricing power and route density, cash flow Robust and dependable free cash flow that funds capital spending, the dividend, and buybacks, dividend profile A reliable, growing dividend with more than 20 consecutive years of increases; a modest yield prioritizing growth over a high current payout.

GFL and WM are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined GFL and WM exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.