HSY vs MDLZ: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated August 2026
Short answer
MDLZ is the larger of the two ($79.53B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (18.55x forward earnings, beta 0.41). HSY is the smaller challenger ($35.17B), priced similarly on forward earnings (17.74x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
HSY vs MDLZ: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | HSY | MDLZ | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $35.17B | $79.53B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 17.74 | 18.55 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 23.91 | 37.99 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 0.10 | 0.41 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 17% of range | 72% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 7.66 | 3.00 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Before you buy: how HSY and MDLZ affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. HSY and MDLZ share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined HSY and MDLZ exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does The Hershey Company (HSY) do?
The Hershey Company is the dominant confectionery maker in North America, built on a portfolio of iconic brands including Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Kit Kat (US license), Jolly Rancher, and Twizzlers. It reports across chocolate and sweets plus a growing salty-snacks and better-for-you portfolio (SkinnyPop, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, Pirate's Booty, LesserEvil), and it generates more than $11 billion in annual revenue. As a consumer-staples business, Hershey has historically offered steady demand, pricing power from beloved brands, high margins, and a consistent, growing dividend, which is why many investors hold it as a defensive core holding rather than a fast grower.
What does Mondelez International (MDLZ) do?
Mondelez International is one of the world's largest snack-food companies, focused almost entirely on two high-growth global categories: biscuits (crackers and cookies like Oreo, Ritz, LU, and Tate's) and chocolate (Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Toblerone), plus a smaller gum and candy business. It reports by geography across Latin America, Asia Middle East and Africa (AMEA), Europe, and North America, and generates 2025 net revenues of roughly $38.5 billion selling in over 150 countries. The model is classic branded consumer staples: build powerful global and local brands, distribute at massive scale, and use pricing plus mix to grow revenue steadily through economic cycles. A large share of sales comes from emerging markets, which gives Mondelez a faster organic growth profile than many packaged-food peers.
HSY vs MDLZ: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- HSY drivers: Cocoa cost normalization and margin recovery; Pricing power from iconic brands.
- MDLZ drivers: Emerging-market growth engine; Brand strength and pricing power.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The dominant risk is cocoa cost inflation: chocolate depends on a single volatile agricultural commodity, and the 2024 to 2025 spike showed how fast margins can compress, with management noting pricing has not yet fully offset costs. For MDLZ, the most immediate risk is commodity-cost inflation, cocoa above all, which can compress chocolate margins faster than pricing can offset, as recent record cocoa prices showed.
HSY or MDLZ: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick HSY if you believe its drivers more; MDLZ if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the HSY and MDLZ guides.
HSY vs MDLZ: the full fundamentals
HSY. These figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; verify live numbers before acting. Hershey's earnings are unusually sensitive to cocoa prices, so 2025's depressed profits and 2026's guided rebound should be read as a recovery off a commodity-driven trough rather than a new steady-state run rate. Always check the latest reported results, guidance, and dividend before making any decision.
MDLZ. Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; verify live numbers before acting. Mondelez usually trades at a consumer-staples premium multiple reflecting brand strength and steady cash flow, but that multiple compresses when cocoa costs or volume softness threaten margins. Because it is treated partly as an income and defensive holding, the valuation is also sensitive to interest rates. Judge the stock on organic growth, margin trajectory versus cocoa, and pricing elasticity rather than headline EPS alone.
Headline figures (approximate, Jul 2026): HSY shows revenue (annual) ~$11 billion-plus, with 2026 net sales growth guided to roughly 4% to 5%, profitability High-margin staples business, but margins were compressed hard in 2025 by cocoa costs and are recovering in 2026, earnings trajectory Adjusted EPS fell sharply in 2025 on cocoa; management guides a large rebound (roughly 30%-plus adjusted EPS growth) for 2026 off the depressed base, valuation multiple Trades as a premium consumer-staples name; multiple can look full for a slow grower, and depends heavily on where cocoa-driven earnings settle; MDLZ shows net revenue (2025) ~$38.5 billion (Q1 2026 net revenue up ~8% year over year), organic net revenue growth (q1 2026) ~3% (led by emerging markets), diluted eps (q1 2026) ~$0.44, up sharply year over year (figure approximate), market cap Large cap, roughly $80 to $95 billion range (approximate, verify live).
The bottom line: HSY vs MDLZ
HSY and MDLZ are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined HSY and MDLZ exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how HSY or MDLZ fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in The Hershey Company with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how HSY fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between HSY and MDLZ?
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The Hershey Company is the dominant confectionery maker in North America, built on a portfolio of iconic brands including Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Kit Kat (US license), Jolly Rancher, and Twizzlers. Mondelez International is one of the world's largest snack-food companies, focused almost entirely on two high-growth global categories: biscuits (crackers and cookies like Oreo, Ritz, LU, and Tate's) and chocolate (Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Toblerone), plus a smaller gum and candy business. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is HSY or MDLZ the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. MDLZ is the larger incumbent; HSY is the smaller challenger and looks cheaper on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, HSY or MDLZ?
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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), HSY trades at 17.74x and MDLZ at 18.55x, so HSY is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both HSY and MDLZ?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of HSY vs MDLZ?
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HSY: The dominant risk is cocoa cost inflation: chocolate depends on a single volatile agricultural commodity, and the 2024 to 2025 spike showed how fast margins can compress, with management noting pricing has not yet fully offset costs. Aggressive price increases risk softening volumes as shoppers trade down or buy less, and chocolate volume declines have already been a concern. Broader input, tariff, and packaging costs add pressure, and health and sugar-reduction trends are a slow structural headwind for confectionery. Hershey also carries meaningful controlling-shareholder dynamics through the Hershey Trust, which can affect governance and strategic flexibility. Finally, as a mature staples name, growth is modest, so the stock can lag in strong bull markets even when the business is healthy, and its valuation can look full for a slow grower. MDLZ: The most immediate risk is commodity-cost inflation, cocoa above all, which can compress chocolate margins faster than pricing can offset, as recent record cocoa prices showed. Aggressive price increases carry volume risk: if shoppers trade down to private label or buy less, organic growth can stall. Mondelez is heavily exposed to foreign currencies through its global footprint, so a strong US dollar can weigh on reported results. Emerging-market strength cuts both ways, adding growth but also macro, currency, and political volatility. As a defensive staple, the stock can lag in strong bull markets and is sensitive to interest rates, since investors often treat it as a bond-like income holding. Regulatory pressure on sugar, packaging, and health labeling is a slower-moving but real headwind.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell HSY or MDLZ; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.