ICE vs NDAQ: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated August 2026
Short answer
ICE is the larger of the two ($85.60B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (17.38x forward earnings, beta 0.95). NDAQ is the smaller challenger ($52.65B), actually pricier on forward earnings (20.24x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
ICE vs NDAQ: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | ICE | NDAQ | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $85.60B | $52.65B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 17.38 | 20.24 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 21.51 | 27.46 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 0.95 | 1.00 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 45% of range | 70% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 2.93 | 4.42 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: ICE is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how ICE and NDAQ affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ICE and NDAQ share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ICE and NDAQ exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) do?
Intercontinental Exchange operates through three segments: Exchanges (which includes the NYSE, energy and interest-rate derivatives, and clearing houses), Fixed Income and Data Services (pricing, reference data, indices, analytics, and execution), and Mortgage Technology (digital workflow tools spanning the US residential mortgage lifecycle from application through closing, servicing, and the secondary market). In 2025 the Exchanges business was roughly 54% of net revenue, Fixed Income and Data Services about 24%, and Mortgage Technology about 22%, giving ICE a mix of transaction-based and recurring subscription revenue.
What does Nasdaq (NDAQ) do?
Nasdaq, Inc. is a global markets-infrastructure and financial-technology company. Most people know it for the Nasdaq Stock Market, home to many large technology listings, but the exchange is now only one part of the company. Nasdaq reports across three divisions: Market Services (the trading and exchange business, tied to volumes), Capital Access Platforms (company listings, the fast-growing index and index-linked product business, and investor-relations and ESG analytics), and Financial Technology (software for anti-money-laundering and fraud detection, regulatory technology, and capital-markets trading and risk systems).
ICE vs NDAQ: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- ICE drivers: Diversified exchange and clearing franchise; Recurring fixed-income and data revenue.
- NDAQ drivers: Financial Technology and recurring revenue; Index business and Capital Access Platforms.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Mortgage Technology revenue is sensitive to US housing activity, mortgage rates, and refinancing volumes, so a prolonged slow-origination environment weighs on that segment. For NDAQ, nasdaq's Market Services division still depends on trading volumes and volatility, so quieter markets can pressure that revenue line.
ICE or NDAQ: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ICE if you believe its drivers more; NDAQ if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ICE and NDAQ guides.
ICE vs NDAQ: the full fundamentals
ICE. ICE reported record Q1 2026 results, with net revenues around $3.0 billion (up about 18% year over year) and adjusted EPS up sharply. The stock trades at roughly 19x to 22x trailing earnings, below the broader capital-markets industry average, after a share-price decline from its 2025 peak. Figures are approximate and drawn from company reports and market data; the company is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results in late July 2026.
NDAQ. Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; verify live numbers before acting. Nasdaq is increasingly valued like a data-and-software company rather than a pure exchange, which supports a higher multiple but also raises the bar for growth. Because part of the model still swings with trading activity, quarter-to-quarter results can be lumpy even as recurring revenue grows. Where the stock trades relative to peers like ICE and CME is as much a judgment about the durability of its software and index growth as about any single quarter.
Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): ICE shows net revenue (2025) ~$9.9B, net revenue (q1 2026) ~$3.0B, net income (q1 2026) ~$1.4B, adjusted diluted eps (q1 2026) ~$2.35; NDAQ shows q1 2026 net revenue ~$1.4 billion, up roughly 14% year over year, q1 2026 eps Reported in the low-$0.90s per share (approximate; verify live), financial technology growth Record pace, up roughly 18% year over year in Q1 2026, revenue mix Majority now from recurring solutions (index, data, and fintech software) rather than trading volumes.
The bottom line: ICE vs NDAQ
ICE and NDAQ are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ICE and NDAQ exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how ICE or NDAQ fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in Intercontinental Exchange with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how ICE fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between ICE and NDAQ?
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Intercontinental Exchange operates through three segments: Exchanges (which includes the NYSE, energy and interest-rate derivatives, and clearing houses), Fixed Income and Data Services (pricing, reference data, indices, analytics, and execution), and Mortgage Technology (digital workflow tools spanning the US residential mortgage lifecycle from application through closing, servicing, and the secondary market). Nasdaq, Inc. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is ICE or NDAQ the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. ICE is the larger incumbent; NDAQ is the smaller challenger and looks pricier on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, ICE or NDAQ?
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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), ICE trades at 17.38x and NDAQ at 20.24x, so ICE is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both ICE and NDAQ?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of ICE vs NDAQ?
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ICE: Mortgage Technology revenue is sensitive to US housing activity, mortgage rates, and refinancing volumes, so a prolonged slow-origination environment weighs on that segment. ICE carries elevated debt from the Black Knight acquisition, which raises interest costs and constrains flexibility until it is paid down. Trading and clearing revenue can be volatile because it depends partly on market volatility that ICE does not control. Competition is intense across derivatives, listings, and data from CME Group, Nasdaq, Cboe, LSEG, and Deutsche Boerse, plus newer venues such as event-contract and perpetual-futures platforms. Regulatory scrutiny of exchanges, market data pricing, and clearing is an ongoing overhang. NDAQ: Nasdaq's Market Services division still depends on trading volumes and volatility, so quieter markets can pressure that revenue line. The stock also tends to trade at a premium multiple relative to some exchange peers, which leaves less room for error if growth slows. Integration and execution risk around large software acquisitions like Adenza is real: cross-sell targets and synergy assumptions may not fully materialize, and the balance sheet still carries acquisition-related debt. Competition is intense across every division, from ICE, CME, and Cboe in trading to S&P and others in indexes and data, and specialized software vendors in fintech. New competitive threats also emerge, such as analyst concern in 2026 about crypto-derivatives venues and event-contract platforms potentially chipping at parts of the exchange landscape. Regulation of market structure, listings, and financial software is another persistent variable outside the company's control.
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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell ICE or NDAQ; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.