LUNR vs SPCX: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. LUNR and SPCX share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined LUNR and SPCX exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is a space-exploration company focused on lunar access and infrastructure. It is best known for its Nova-C lunar lander, which made a notable soft landing on the Moon, the first by a commercial company. The business is built around NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program and related government contracts, delivering payloads to the lunar surface and pursuing adjacent opportunities in lunar data relay and communications, orbital services, and space infrastructure. Since late 2025 it has also owned a satellite-manufacturing operation in Palo Alto, California, which builds spacecraft buses for commercial, civil and national security customers (it has built 13 spacecraft for SiriusXM, and in September 2026 announced an order for two IM 300 platforms from a new customer). That addition lifted revenue to about $490 million over the trailing twelve months, with the June 2026 quarter roughly four times the year-earlier level. The company is still not profitable: trailing net loss is about $131 million, and the June quarter's loss of $0.16 per share was wider than the $0.07 analysts expected. Intuitive Machines went public in 2023 via a SPAC merger and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. It remains a small, speculative space stock whose value depends on winning and executing missions and spacecraft orders, on the pace of NASA's Artemis and lunar programs, and on government and commercial demand for cislunar services. Mission risk is high, and outcomes can swing sharply on the success or failure of individual landings.

Full LUNR guide

SpaceX, formally Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is the largest launch provider in the world and the operator of the largest satellite-broadband constellation. It listed on Nasdaq under SPCX in June 2026 in the largest IPO on record by proceeds, after more than twenty years as a private company. It employs roughly 22,000 people and is classified in Aerospace and Defense.

Full SPCX guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• LUNR drivers: Lunar lander franchise; Satellite manufacturing and cislunar infrastructure.
• SPCX drivers: Satellite broadband is the revenue engine; Direct-to-device and carrier partnerships.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Space missions carry high technical risk; a single failed landing or anomaly can damage the stock and future contract prospects, and not every mission succeeds fully. For SPCX, spaceX is not profitable: net margin ran around negative 36 percent on roughly $23 billion of trailing revenue, with a trailing net loss of about $8.9 billion, even though EBITDA of about $5.9 billion is positive and the trailing operating margin is close to break-even at about -1.8 percent.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick LUNR if you believe its drivers more; SPCX if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the LUNR and SPCX guides.

LUNR. Intuitive Machines is difficult to value on earnings because it still loses money and results swing with mission timing and spacecraft deliveries. At about 3.6 times trailing sales, after a roughly 38% fall in 2026, the stock prices in meaningful growth from satellite manufacturing and lunar contracts. Analysts expect revenue near $920 million for 2026 and continued losses into 2027, so LUNR remains a speculative, scenario-driven valuation that moves sharply on mission news and contract awards.

SPCX. SpaceX is valued as a growth company rather than an aerospace contractor, and the gap is stark: the defense primes trade on single-digit to low-double-digit multiples of earnings, while SPCX trades at roughly 83 times trailing sales and about 73 times forward earnings. Gross margin near 52 percent reflects the subscription mix in Connectivity, and the trailing operating margin has moved close to break-even, but the net result is still a loss because depreciation and development costs are large. The forward multiple depends on consensus EPS rising from about $0.09 in 2026 to about $2.08 in 2027; 31 analysts carry a mean target near $221 against a price of about $146.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): LUNR shows revenue (ttm) ~$490 million (June 2026 quarter up ~310% year over year), margins (ttm) Gross ~16%, operating ~-18%, net ~-27%, net income (ttm) ~-$131 million; EPS ~-$0.95, p/e ratio Not meaningful (losses); forward P/E negative; SPCX shows revenue (ttm) ~$23.0 billion, revenue growth (q2 2026) ~92% year over year, on ~$7.81 billion of quarterly revenue, margins (ttm) ~52% gross, ~-1.8% operating, ~-36% net, net loss (ttm) ~-$8.9 billion; Q2 2026 EPS ~-$0.09 vs ~-$0.29 expected.

LUNR and SPCX are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined LUNR and SPCX exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.