MAT vs MGA: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated August 2026
Short answer
MGA is the larger of the two ($18.67B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (8.96x forward earnings, beta 1.86). MAT is the smaller challenger ($4.38B), priced similarly on forward earnings (9.40x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
MAT vs MGA: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | MAT | MGA | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $4.38B | $18.67B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 9.40 | 8.96 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 9.67 | 25.22 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 0.74 | 1.86 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 24% of range | 94% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 2.08 | 1.58 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Before you buy: how MAT and MGA affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. MAT and MGA share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined MAT and MGA exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Mattel (MAT) do?
Mattel is one of the world's largest toy companies, designing and selling physical toys and games under brands including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, Thomas & Friends, Masters of the Universe, Polly Pocket, and UNO. It reports across categories such as Dolls, Vehicles, Infant/Toddler/Preschool, and Games, and it earns money both by making its own toys and by licensing partner properties (for example Disney Pixar's Cars and Warner Bros. characters). In recent quarters Hot Wheels and the broader Vehicles category have been the standout, posting strong billings growth, while Barbie and the Dolls category have been under pressure, with management not expecting Barbie to return to growth until 2027.
What does Magna International (MGA) do?
Magna International is a Canadian company and one of the largest automotive suppliers in the world, serving nearly every major global automaker. Its business is organized into four reporting segments: Body Exteriors & Structures (body, chassis, exterior, and roof systems); Power & Vision (powertrain, electronics, mirrors, lighting, mechatronics, and driver-assistance technology); Seating Systems; and Complete Vehicles, which engineers and assembles entire vehicles for automakers on a contract basis. This breadth means Magna's content can appear across many parts of a car regardless of the brand on the badge.
MAT vs MGA: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- MAT drivers: Hot Wheels and the Vehicles franchise; Entertainment and film slate.
- MGA drivers: Diversified vehicle content; Margin discipline over volume.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The clearest risk is that the toy business is mature and demand-sensitive: soft Barbie sales, cautious retailer ordering, and a value-conscious consumer can keep revenue growth muted. For MGA, magna's biggest risk is cyclicality.
MAT or MGA: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick MAT if you believe its drivers more; MGA if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the MAT and MGA guides.
MAT vs MGA: the full fundamentals
MAT. These characterizations are directional and tied to the asOf date, not precise live figures. Mattel's reported profitability is being distorted by deliberate investment spending, so headline EPS and margins can look worse than the underlying business, and any single-quarter number can swing on seasonality (the fourth quarter and holiday season dominate toy sales), tariffs, and film timing. Always verify current revenue, earnings, debt, and valuation from Mattel's latest filings and a live quote before drawing conclusions.
MGA. These figures are approximate and qualitative, based on recent public reporting, and are not precise or real-time. Auto-supplier results move with production cycles and guidance can change. Always verify current revenue, earnings, dividend, balance-sheet, and guidance details from primary sources before making any decision.
Headline figures (approximate, Jul 2026): MAT shows revenue trend Roughly flat to modestly higher recently; Q1 2026 net sales rose in the low-single digits year over year, led by Vehicles/Hot Wheels while Dolls/Barbie declined, profitability Under pressure; management is voluntarily compressing near-term earnings (framed as roughly $150 million) to fund a digital and entertainment scale-up, so recent quarters have shown weaker or negative adjusted EPS, balance sheet Carries meaningful long-term debt typical of a large toymaker; watch leverage and free cash flow as the company self-funds its transition, valuation Trades as a turnaround story rather than a growth compounder; multiples are best judged against normalized, post-transition earnings rather than currently depressed profits; MGA shows revenue (ttm) Large-scale supplier with tens of billions in annual sales; full-year 2026 guidance was in the low-to-mid $40 billion range, trimmed to reflect softer global production., profitability Profitable with a focus on margin expansion; recent quarters showed earnings growth and beats even as industry volumes declined, per management commentary., balance sheet Established, cash-generative supplier of substantial scale; historically maintains an investment-grade profile. Verify current leverage and liquidity from filings., valuation Typically trades at modest, cyclical-supplier multiples rather than growth-stock levels, reflecting its mature, capital-intensive auto-parts business..
The bottom line: MAT vs MGA
MAT and MGA are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined MAT and MGA exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how MAT or MGA fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in Mattel with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how MAT fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between MAT and MGA?
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Mattel is one of the world's largest toy companies, designing and selling physical toys and games under brands including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, Thomas & Friends, Masters of the Universe, Polly Pocket, and UNO. Magna International is a Canadian company and one of the largest automotive suppliers in the world, serving nearly every major global automaker. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is MAT or MGA the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. MGA is the larger incumbent; MAT is the smaller challenger and looks pricier on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, MAT or MGA?
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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), MAT trades at 9.40x and MGA at 8.96x, so MGA is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both MAT and MGA?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of MAT vs MGA?
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MAT: The clearest risk is that the toy business is mature and demand-sensitive: soft Barbie sales, cautious retailer ordering, and a value-conscious consumer can keep revenue growth muted. Profitability is a near-term concern because Mattel is intentionally compressing earnings to fund its digital and entertainment build-out, and there is no guarantee that spend becomes self-funding on schedule or generates the expected returns. Tariffs and trade policy raise input costs and complicate pricing, even as the company shifts sourcing away from China. The entertainment strategy is inherently uncertain, since films can underperform and a single hit is hard to repeat. Mattel also carries debt and competes hard with Hasbro and lower-cost entrants, and analyst opinions on the stock are mixed, reflecting genuine disagreement about whether the turnaround will work. MGA: Magna's biggest risk is cyclicality. As a supplier, its revenue depends on how many vehicles automakers build, so recessions, weak consumer demand, higher interest rates, or production cuts by major customers can pressure results quickly. Concentration among a handful of large automakers means losing or scaling back a key program can matter. The industry's shift toward electric vehicles is uneven, and mistimed investments or delayed EV adoption could weigh on returns. Input-cost inflation, tariffs and trade policy, supply-chain disruptions, and currency swings (Magna reports in US dollars but operates globally) all add volatility. Margins in contract manufacturing and complete-vehicle assembly can be thin. The company has trimmed sales guidance in a soft production environment, underscoring that top-line growth is not assured. Verify current guidance and results before acting.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell MAT or MGA; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.