MGY vs MTDR: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of September 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: MTDR is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. MGY and MTDR share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined MGY and MTDR exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Magnolia Oil & Gas is an independent exploration and production company concentrated in the core of South Texas, where it operates in the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk across two main areas, Karnes and Giddings. As of March 2026 it held interests in roughly 2,890 gross wells and produced about 102.6 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, with oil making up around 40% of volumes. The company's strategy centers on delivering steady, moderate production growth (guidance of about 5% for 2026) while keeping capital spending disciplined and reinvestment rates low, which lets it generate free cash flow across commodity cycles.

Full MGY guide

Matador Resources drills, completes and produces oil and natural gas from the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, the western lobe of the Permian, with roughly 483 employees and a founder, Joseph Foran, who has run the company since 2003. Production averaged ~215,631 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter of 2026, ~58% of it crude oil, and proved reserves reached ~703 million BOE at June 30, 2026 against ~667 million at the end of 2025. Alongside the wells, Matador owns 51% of San Mateo, a gathering and processing joint venture with Five Point Infrastructure that moves natural gas, crude and produced water for Matador and for third-party customers. San Mateo's acquisition of Cardinal Midstream, which closed on July 31, 2026, pushed its designed processing capacity above one billion cubic feet per day.

Full MTDR guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• MGY drivers: Low-leverage balance sheet; Free cash flow and shareholder returns.
• MTDR drivers: Four inventory transactions closed or pending in one year; Higher-quality rock and better lease economics.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Magnolia's results are highly sensitive to oil and natural gas prices because the company generally does not hedge, so a sustained downturn in commodity prices would pressure revenue, cash flow, and buybacks. For MTDR, commodity price is the dominant variable: second-quarter earnings leaned on ~$98 per barrel realised oil, and a return toward the $64 realised in the same quarter of 2025 would compress cash flow sharply against a raised capital budget.

Pick MGY if you believe its drivers more; MTDR if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the MGY and MTDR guides.

MGY. Magnolia trades around a mid-teens trailing earnings multiple with a lower forward multiple reflecting analyst expectations, a premium many attribute to its low leverage and consistent free cash flow. First quarter 2026 revenue of about $358 million and net income near $100 million came alongside production growth of roughly 6% year over year. Valuation and profitability move with commodity prices, so multiples can shift quickly with the oil and gas cycle.

MTDR. The single-digit trailing multiple and ~1.1x price-to-book are typical of US shale producers, which the market prices on reserve life and commodity assumptions rather than on reported earnings. Netting ~$26 million of cash against ~$4.2 billion of long-term debt gives an enterprise value near $11 billion, roughly four times trailing operating cash flow of ~$2.6 billion. Reported figures also swing with mark-to-market derivative results, which is why the first quarter of 2026 showed a small GAAP net loss while adjusted net income stayed positive at ~$189.5 million.

Headline figures (approximate, July 2026): MGY shows market cap ~$4.8B, revenue (ttm) ~$1.4B, q1 2026 revenue ~$358M, q1 2026 net income ~$100M; MTDR shows revenue (ttm) ~$3.8B, net income (ttm) ~$724M, diluted eps (ttm) ~$5.83, market cap ~$6.9B.

MGY and MTDR are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined MGY and MTDR exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.