MTDR vs SM: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: SM is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. MTDR and SM share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined MTDR and SM exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Matador Resources drills, completes and produces oil and natural gas from the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, the western lobe of the Permian, with roughly 483 employees and a founder, Joseph Foran, who has run the company since 2003. Production averaged ~215,631 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter of 2026, ~58% of it crude oil, and proved reserves reached ~703 million BOE at June 30, 2026 against ~667 million at the end of 2025. Alongside the wells, Matador owns 51% of San Mateo, a gathering and processing joint venture with Five Point Infrastructure that moves natural gas, crude and produced water for Matador and for third-party customers. San Mateo's acquisition of Cardinal Midstream, which closed on July 31, 2026, pushed its designed processing capacity above one billion cubic feet per day.

Full MTDR guide

SM Energy Company is an independent oil and gas producer that explores for, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids across several US basins. After closing its all-stock merger with Civitas Resources on January 30, 2026, the combined company operates a diversified portfolio spanning the Midland Basin (Permian) in West Texas, the DJ Basin in Colorado, South Texas (Eagle Ford), and the Uinta Basin in Utah. The deal, valued at roughly $12.8 billion in enterprise value including debt, nearly doubled SM's production base and made it one of the larger mid-cap E&P names, while the company retained the SM Energy name and NYSE ticker.

Full SM guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• MTDR drivers: Four inventory transactions closed or pending in one year; Higher-quality rock and better lease economics.
• SM drivers: Civitas merger and multi-basin scale; Oil-weighted production growth.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Commodity price is the dominant variable: second-quarter earnings leaned on ~$98 per barrel realised oil, and a return toward the $64 realised in the same quarter of 2025 would compress cash flow sharply against a raised capital budget. For SM, sM's earnings and cash flow are tightly tied to volatile crude oil and natural gas prices, and a sustained drop in oil could pressure the shares toward the mid-teens.

Pick MTDR if you believe its drivers more; SM if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the MTDR and SM guides.

MTDR. The single-digit trailing multiple and ~1.1x price-to-book are typical of US shale producers, which the market prices on reserve life and commodity assumptions rather than on reported earnings. Netting ~$26 million of cash against ~$4.2 billion of long-term debt gives an enterprise value near $11 billion, roughly four times trailing operating cash flow of ~$2.6 billion. Reported figures also swing with mark-to-market derivative results, which is why the first quarter of 2026 showed a small GAAP net loss while adjusted net income stayed positive at ~$189.5 million.

SM. SM trades at a low forward earnings multiple relative to the broader oil and gas industry, which is common for E&P names because results swing with commodity prices and debt sits ahead of shareholders. The stock traded around $28 to $30 in mid-July 2026 after the Civitas merger roughly doubled the share count, with about 240 million shares outstanding. The annual fixed dividend of roughly $0.88 per share implies a yield in the range of 3%, and full-year 2026 capital spending is guided to $2.65 to $2.85 billion.

Headline figures (approximate, August 2026): MTDR shows revenue (ttm) ~$3.8B, net income (ttm) ~$724M, diluted eps (ttm) ~$5.83, market cap ~$6.9B; SM shows revenue (ttm) ~$3.8B, q1 2026 revenue ~$1.48B (+75% YoY, first full post-merger quarter), q1 2026 adjusted eps ~$1.55 (beat, down ~12% YoY), net production (q1 2026) ~371 MBoe/d (oil +83% YoY).

MTDR and SM are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined MTDR and SM exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.