MTG vs NMIH: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. MTG and NMIH share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined MTG and NMIH exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG) is the holding company for Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation, one of the largest private mortgage insurers in the United States. Private mortgage insurance protects lenders and investors against losses when borrowers with high loan-to-value mortgages (typically less than a 20% down payment) default, which lets more people buy homes with smaller down payments. MGIC earns recurring premium income from its large insurance-in-force portfolio (roughly $303 billion as of early 2026), and policies generally stay in force until borrowers refinance, sell, or build enough equity to cancel coverage. It remained the No. 1 private mortgage insurer by market share heading into 2026.

Full MTG guide

NMI Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: NMIH), operating as National MI, sells private mortgage insurance that lets lenders originate conventional loans with down payments below 20 percent and sell them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while transferring part of the default risk to National MI. Profitability comes from the spread between the premiums it earns on its insurance-in-force and the claims it pays, so risk selection, pricing discipline, and reinsurance are the core levers. The company competes in a concentrated, roughly six-player market and has grown its insured portfolio into a large, seasoned, high-credit-quality book.

Full NMIH guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• MTG drivers: Recurring premium from insurance-in-force; Aggressive capital return.
• NMIH drivers: Growing, high-quality insurance-in-force; Mid-teens returns and capital return.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: MGIC's core business is highly dependent on the housing market and employment, so its main structural risk is the credit cycle. For NMIH, the dominant risk is housing credit: a recession, rising unemployment, or falling home prices would push the loss ratio well above today's low-teens level, and mortgage insurance losses arrive with a lag after stress begins.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick MTG if you believe its drivers more; NMIH if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the MTG and NMIH guides.

MTG. MGIC trades at under 9x trailing earnings and about 1.1x book value, the market's usual discount for cyclical mortgage-insurance earnings, even as margins stay very high. Revenue is shrinking slowly (down about 3% year over year in Q2 2026) while earnings per share keep rising, which is mostly the effect of favorable loss experience and buybacks shrinking the share count. Valuation figures are approximate and move with the stock price; the analyst mean target was about $31.40 in mid-October 2026.

NMIH. NMIH trades at about 8 times trailing earnings and roughly 1.1 times book, a discount to the private-mortgage-insurer peer average that prices in the cyclical loss risk in the business. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was a record ~$187.9 million with net income of ~$105.8 million ($1.38 per share), and analysts expect about $5.27 of EPS for 2026 and $5.52 for 2027. Q3 results on November 5, 2026 (consensus ~$1.30) are the next update; figures are approximate, so verify against the latest filing.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): MTG shows revenue (ttm) ~$1.2B, revenue growth (latest quarter, yoy) ~-3%, net income (ttm) ~$708M, q2 2026 net income ~$182M ($0.87/sh vs ~$0.76 est.); NMIH shows revenue (ttm) ~$731M (Q2 2026 +8.1% YoY), net income (ttm) ~$395M (~54% profit margin), diluted eps (ttm) ~$5.08, q2 2026 eps ~$1.38 vs ~$1.28 consensus.

MTG and NMIH are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined MTG and NMIH exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.