NVMI vs ONTO: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated August 2026
Short answer
NVMI and ONTO are similarly sized, but ONTO trades noticeably cheaper on forward earnings (26.00x vs 29.92x): the market is paying up for NVMI's profile and pricing ONTO more conservatively, or for faster growth. Which you prefer comes down to the drivers you believe, and whether adding either over-concentrates what you already own.
NVMI vs ONTO: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | NVMI | ONTO | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $12.34B | $12.86B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 29.92 | 26.00 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 48.74 | 120.27 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 1.78 | 1.54 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 41% of range | 57% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 8.89 | 6.03 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: ONTO is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how NVMI and ONTO affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. NVMI and ONTO share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined NVMI and ONTO exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Nova Ltd. (NVMI) do?
Nova Ltd. (NASDAQ and Tel Aviv: NVMI), headquartered in Rehovot, Israel, builds process-control metrology for semiconductor manufacturing. Metrology is measurement rather than inspection: instead of hunting for defects, Nova's systems characterize the dimensions, profiles, thin-film thickness, and material composition of structures on a wafer while it is still moving through the line. The portfolio splits into a Dimensional Metrology Division built on optical techniques (integrated and standalone optical critical dimension, or OCD, scatterometry) and a Materials Metrology Division built on x-ray methods, plus chemical metrology acquired with ancosys in 2022 and a modeling and analytics software layer that is arguably the real moat. A meaningful share of Nova's tools are integrated, meaning they are bolted directly onto another vendor's deposition or etch equipment, which makes Nova both a supplier to fabs and a partner to process-equipment makers. Customers are the logic foundries, memory makers, and packaging houses in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, China, and the United States, and manufacturing sits in Israel, Germany, and the United States, with a new Asian facility targeted to be operational by the end of 2026.
What does Onto Innovation (ONTO) do?
Onto Innovation designs and builds inspection, metrology, lithography, and data-analysis systems that semiconductor manufacturers use to measure and check chips during production. It was formed from the 2019 merger of Rudolph Technologies and Nanometrics, and it competes in areas like thin-film and critical-dimension (OCD) metrology, macro defect inspection, and advanced packaging inspection. Its tools, including the Dragonfly inspection platform and the Atlas and newer G-series metrology systems, are used across advanced logic nodes, specialty devices, and the packaging steps that stitch AI accelerators and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) together.
NVMI vs ONTO: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- NVMI drivers: Gate-all-around and the rising metrology intensity of leading-edge logic; Advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory.
- ONTO drivers: Advanced packaging and HBM; Advanced logic nodes.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Nova sells capital equipment into an industry that has historically swung hard in both directions, so a pause in leading-edge capex at any of the handful of customers that matter would show up in orders within a quarter or two, and the current multiple leaves little room for that. For ONTO, onto is a semiconductor capital-equipment company, so its revenue is cyclical and can drop sharply in a chip-spending downturn.
NVMI or ONTO: which should you pick?
NVMI vs ONTO: the full fundamentals
NVMI. Market capitalization is roughly $12.5B on about 31.8M shares outstanding, which puts the stock near a 45x forward earnings multiple against roughly 25x for the average US semiconductor name, and above Nova's own 15-year average price-to-earnings ratio of about 37x. The premium is being paid for a record set of results, not a promise: fiscal 2025 revenue of ~$880.6M grew ~31% with GAAP net income of ~$259.2M, and both 2026 quarters so far set records with margins holding in the mid-50s. The offset is a 52-week range of roughly $233 to $616, which is the market repricing the same business by more than 2x inside a year as views on the leading-edge capex cycle shift.
ONTO. Onto trades at a mid-cap valuation that reflects its growth exposure to AI packaging rather than a deep-value multiple. Gross margin has run in the roughly 50-56% range depending on mix, and management guided second-quarter 2026 revenue to $320-$330 million with non-GAAP EPS of about $1.65-$1.73. These figures are as of May 2026 and will change with each quarterly report.
Headline figures (approximate, August 2026): NVMI shows revenue (ttm) ~$903M (trailing figure, before the record June quarter fully rolls in), q2 2026 revenue ~$255.0M (+16% YoY, +8% QoQ, a company record), gross margin (q2 2026) ~56.5% GAAP, ~58% non-GAAP, operating margin (q2 2026) ~30% GAAP, ~33% non-GAAP; ONTO shows revenue (ttm) ~$1.03 billion, fy2025 revenue ~$1.005 billion, q1 2026 revenue ~$292 million (record, ~+9.5% YoY), q1 2026 non-gaap eps ~$1.42.
The bottom line: NVMI vs ONTO
NVMI and ONTO are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined NVMI and ONTO exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how NVMI or ONTO fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in Nova Ltd. with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how NVMI fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between NVMI and ONTO?
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Nova Ltd. Onto Innovation designs and builds inspection, metrology, lithography, and data-analysis systems that semiconductor manufacturers use to measure and check chips during production. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is NVMI or ONTO the better stock?
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Neither is universally better; they suit different views and risk levels. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, NVMI or ONTO?
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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), NVMI trades at 29.92x and ONTO at 26.00x, so ONTO is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both NVMI and ONTO?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of NVMI vs ONTO?
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NVMI: Nova sells capital equipment into an industry that has historically swung hard in both directions, so a pause in leading-edge capex at any of the handful of customers that matter would show up in orders within a quarter or two, and the current multiple leaves little room for that. Concentration is real: four customers and three territories each represented at least 10% of product revenue, and China alone has been roughly 30% or more of the business even after declining from about 39%. That China exposure sits directly in the path of US, Dutch, and Japanese export controls plus tariff changes, none of which Nova controls. Operations, R&D, and a large share of manufacturing are concentrated in Israel, which carries geopolitical, mobilization, and logistics risk that the company itself flags at length in its 20-F. Competitively, KLA is far larger and holds the dominant share of metrology and inspection overall, while Onto Innovation and Camtek are pushing hard on the same advanced-packaging demand Nova is winning today, so share gains are not guaranteed to continue. Finally, the $750M convertible notes become dilutive to share count if the stock trades above the conversion price, and the shares have already traveled from roughly $233 to roughly $616 in a single year, which tells you how quickly sentiment on this name reprices. ONTO: Onto is a semiconductor capital-equipment company, so its revenue is cyclical and can drop sharply in a chip-spending downturn. A large share of sales concentrates in a handful of leading-edge logic and memory customers, so a single customer's capex delay or push-out can move a quarter meaningfully. Its growth thesis leans heavily on AI-driven advanced packaging and HBM demand continuing, which could soften if AI infrastructure spending cools or memory pricing weakens. Gross margin has fluctuated with product mix (it dipped year over year in early 2026 before guided recovery), and export controls on chip equipment sold into China add regulatory uncertainty. Larger, better-capitalized rivals like KLA can also pressure pricing and share.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell NVMI or ONTO; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.