ONB vs SGHC: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: ONB is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ONB and SGHC share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ONB and SGHC exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is the holding company for Old National Bank, a super-regional bank headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, with a large operational base in Chicago and a footprint concentrated across the Midwest. Following its May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, the company holds roughly $70 billion in total assets and more than $30 billion in wealth assets under management, making it among the top 25 banking companies headquartered in the United States and one of the largest commercial banks in the Midwest. Like most banks, it earns money in two broad ways: net interest income, the spread between what it earns on loans and securities and what it pays on deposits (roughly $2.4 billion on a full-year 2025 basis), and noninterest fee income from wealth management, mortgage banking, treasury management, and capital markets.

Full ONB guide

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates the Betway sports-betting brand and the Spin (formerly Jackpot Casino) online casino across dozens of regulated and emerging markets, with a growing concentration in Africa alongside Europe, the Americas and the rest of the world. The company went public on the NYSE via a SPAC merger in 2022, exited the costly US online-betting market in 2023 to protect margins, and now reports across two segments, Africa and International. In Q1 2026 it served roughly 6.4 million average monthly active customers, an 18 percent increase year over year.

Full SGHC guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• ONB drivers: Growth through acquisition and scale; Solid margin and cost discipline.
• SGHC drivers: Africa-led emerging-market growth; Profitability and shareholder returns.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. For SGHC, online gambling is heavily regulated, and rules, taxes or advertising restrictions can change quickly in any of Super Group's markets, directly hitting revenue and margins.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ONB if you believe its drivers more; SGHC if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ONB and SGHC guides.

ONB. Reading a regional bank means looking past a single earnings number to a few structural metrics. The net interest margin (around 3.65% in Q4 2025) shows how profitably the bank lends relative to its funding costs, and the efficiency ratio (an adjusted ~48.8% for 2025) measures how lean the operation is, where lower is better. Note the gap between GAAP EPS of $1.79 and adjusted EPS of $2.21, which reflects one-time merger and integration charges from the Bremer deal, so the adjusted figure is a cleaner read on underlying run-rate earnings. A trailing P/E near 13 is in the typical range for regional banks, which tend to trade at lower multiples than the broader market because their earnings are cyclical and rate-sensitive. The distinctive feature here is the growth-by-acquisition scale-up; the open question is how much of the Bremer benefit is already reflected in the share price versus still to be realized through integration.

SGHC. Super Group trades around $15 to $16 per share with a market cap near $7.5 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio around 30, alongside a dividend yield of roughly 1 percent. Q1 2026 was a record quarter, with revenue up about 18 percent and adjusted EBITDA up about 36 percent, and management reaffirmed at least $2.55 billion of 2026 revenue and over $680 million of adjusted EBITDA. Some analysts peg fair value modestly above the recent price, tying the gap to how much credit the market gives its Africa-led growth and margin story.

Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): ONB shows revenue (net interest income + fees, fy2025) ~$2.9 billion, net interest income (fy2025) ~$2.4 billion, net income to common (fy2025) ~$653 million GAAP (~$809 million adjusted), diluted eps (fy2025) $1.79 GAAP ($2.21 adjusted); SGHC shows revenue (ttm) ~$2.2B, 2026 revenue guidance ~$2.55B+, q1 2026 revenue ~$612M (+18% YoY), q1 2026 adj. ebitda ~$152M (25% margin).

ONB and SGHC are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ONB and SGHC exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.