SF vs ZTO: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. SF and ZTO share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined SF and ZTO exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Stifel Financial Corp. is a diversified financial services firm founded in 1890 and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri. It provides wealth management, investment banking, institutional sales and trading, research, and banking services through more than 400 offices, organized into two main segments: Global Wealth Management (its Private Client Group of roughly 2,300 to 2,400 financial advisors plus Stifel Bancorp) and the Institutional Group (advisory, equity and fixed-income underwriting, sales and trading, and research). The firm oversees on the order of $500 billion in client assets and has grown for decades through steady advisor recruiting and acquisitions.

Full SF guide

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. runs the biggest express delivery network in China, and it runs it through a partner-franchise model rather than owning the last mile. ZTO itself operates the expensive middle of the chain: 93 sorting hubs, more than 10,000 self-owned line-haul trucks and 780 sets of automated sorting equipment. Roughly 6,000 direct network partners and over 31,000 pickup and delivery outlets handle collection and doorstep delivery, paying ZTO a network transit fee per parcel. That structure is why ZTO earns operating margins near 20% in a business most Western investors associate with thin single-digit margins, and it is also why ZTO's economics depend on keeping franchisees profitable rather than squeezing them. Alongside core express, the company sells less-than-truckload freight, warehousing and distribution, and freight forwarding, though express delivery is around 93% of revenue.

Full ZTO guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• SF drivers: Wealth management fee base; Investment banking and capital markets recovery.
• ZTO drivers: Anti-involution policy resetting industry pricing; Share gains from a widening cost advantage.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: As a broker-dealer and investment bank, Stifel is cyclical and its institutional revenue can fall sharply when M&A and underwriting activity dries up. For ZTO, the obvious risk is that the anti-involution pricing discipline is policy-driven rather than structural, and a return to open price competition would compress per-parcel profit quickly across the whole industry.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick SF if you believe its drivers more; ZTO if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the SF and ZTO guides.

SF. Stifel posted record first-quarter 2026 net revenues near $1.48 billion, with net income to common of about $242 million, helped by strong investment banking, asset management, and a gain on the sale of Stifel Independent Advisors. Non-GAAP return on tangible common equity was reported near 24.8 percent. At a mid-teens price-to-earnings multiple, the shares are valued in line with other mid-cap wealth and capital-markets firms rather than at a growth premium.

ZTO. ZTO trades at a discount to global parcel peers on earnings and at a large discount on growth-adjusted terms, with a PEG near 0.8, which reflects the China-listing discount as much as the business. Returns are respectable rather than spectacular for an asset-heavy network, with return on equity near 14.9% and return on invested capital near 16.5%. The gap between the ~14 trailing multiple and the ~11 forward multiple is the market pricing in the earnings recovery that the volume guidance and the pricing reset imply.

Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): SF shows net revenues (ttm) ~$5.6B, q1 2026 net revenue ~$1.48B (up ~18% YoY), q1 2026 diluted eps ~$1.48, market cap ~$12B; ZTO shows revenue (ttm) ~$7.5 billion (~RMB 51.5 billion), up ~13.9%, net income (ttm) ~$1.3 billion (~RMB 9.2 billion), net margin ~17.9%, market cap ~$17.9 billion (~759 million shares at ~$23.60), p/e ratio ~14.2 trailing, ~10.7 forward.

SF and ZTO are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined SF and ZTO exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.