TJX vs ULTA: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: ULTA is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. TJX and ULTA share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined TJX and ULTA exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

TJX Companies operates the largest off-price retail business in the world. Brands include T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, HomeSense, Sierra (off-price outdoor), and TK Maxx internationally. The model is opportunistic buying: TJX merchandise teams buy branded and designer apparel and home goods at deep discounts from manufacturers, brands, and other retailers (overstock, cancellations, end-of-season). These products are then sold at 20-60% below department store prices.

Full TJX guide

Ulta Beauty operates the largest beauty retail chain in the US. The differentiation is unusual within beauty retail: Ulta sells products across the full price range, from drugstore-tier (Maybelline, L'Oréal Paris, e.l.f.) to mass-prestige (Clinique, Lancôme, Tarte) to luxury (Chanel, Dior, MAC, Pat McGrath). Each store has a salon for hair services, plus brow bars and increasingly skin services, which drives store traffic beyond just retail.

Full ULTA guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• TJX drivers: Consumer trade-down driving traffic; International expansion.
• ULTA drivers: Beauty category resilience; Loyalty program scale.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: If consumer pressure eases significantly, the off-price trade-down dynamic moderates. For ULTA, sephora's expansion through Kohl's partnership has narrowed Ulta's geographic advantage.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick TJX if you believe its drivers more; ULTA if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the TJX and ULTA guides.

TJX. At $147.04, TJX trades at about 27 times trailing earnings and about 25 times the ~$5.77 of EPS analysts expect for the fiscal year ending January 2028, a premium to traditional department stores and apparel retailers that reflects the durability of the counter-cyclical model. The premium held through 2026 even as the shares slipped about 5% year to date on the Marmaxx comparable-sales miss. Twenty analysts tracked by Yahoo Finance hold a consensus buy rating with a mean target near $171, and in early October Gordon Haskett raised its target to $175 while Evercore ISI trimmed its to $173.

ULTA. Ulta's multiple has moved back up from the ~18x trailing P/E of early 2026 to about 21.8x as the stock rallied on beats and a raised outlook, while the forward P/E of ~18.6x still sits below the peak levels of 2021-2023. Consensus expects EPS near $28.95 for the year ending January 2027 and about $32 the year after, so the valuation now leans on revenue growth holding near the high single digits.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): TJX shows revenue (ttm) ~$62.4B, revenue growth (latest quarter, y/y) ~5.4%, operating / net margin ~10.9% / ~9.7%, net income (ttm) ~$6.1B (EPS ~$5.40); ULTA shows revenue (ttm) ~$12.96 billion, revenue growth (latest quarter) ~+8.9% year on year (Q2 FY2026 revenue ~$3.04 billion), margins Gross ~43%, operating ~12.5%, net ~9.3%, net income (ttm) ~$1.21 billion.

TJX and ULTA are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined TJX and ULTA exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.