Fannie Mae (FNMA) Stock Price & How to Invest

Fannie Mae, formally the Federal National Mortgage Association, is a government-sponsored enterprise that sits at the center of the US housing finance system. It buys mortgages from lenders, packages them into mortgage-backed securities, and guarantees timely payment of principal and interest to investors, which keeps mortgage credit flowing and supports the 30-year fixed-rate loan. Fannie Mae does not originate loans directly; it makes most of its money from guaranty fees charged for taking on the credit risk of the loans it backs, earning a recurring stream across a guaranty book of business of roughly $4 trillion. The company reported full-year 2025 net income of about $14.4 billion and ended 2025 with net worth of about $109 billion, its fourteenth straight profitable year.

Fannie Mae has operated under the conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Agency since September 2008, when the housing crisis pushed it to the brink and the Treasury rescued it. In exchange, Treasury holds senior preferred stock with a liquidation preference that has grown well past $200 billion, plus warrants to acquire about 79.9% of the common stock (currently set to expire in September 2028). For years all profits were swept to Treasury; more recently Fannie Mae has been allowed to retain earnings to rebuild capital. The current debate, often called recap and release, is over whether and how the company can exit conservatorship, retire or convert the Treasury senior preferred, and return to public markets. A January 2025 amendment to the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements restored Treasury's consent right over any release, and through 2025 the administration floated an IPO that could sell a minority stake and relist the shares on a major exchange, though timing and terms remain uncertain.

FNMA common is highly speculative and the risks are unusually severe. The US Treasury effectively controls the company through senior preferred stock with a liquidation preference well over $200 billion and warrants for about 79.9% of the common stock, so exercising those warrants or converting the senior preferred in a recapitalization could massively dilute existing common shareholders, potentially leaving them with little. The entire thesis is dependent on political and regulatory decisions, an IPO, a relisting, and the treatment of Treasury's stake, none of which are within the company's control and all of which can change with administrations. There is extensive litigation history around the profit sweep and shareholder rights. The shares trade over the counter rather than on a major exchange, which can mean lower liquidity and wider spreads, and prices have swung more than 30% in a year on shifting expectations. Investors can lose most or all of their capital if a release never happens on favorable terms.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Fannie Mae's investor relations page or your broker.

• Net income (FY2025): ~$14.4 billion
• Net income (Q1 2026): ~$3.7 billion
• Net worth: ~$109B (end 2025); ~$112.7B (Q1 2026)
• Treasury senior preferred: Liquidation preference well over $200 billion and growing
• Treasury warrant stake: ~79.9% of common stock (warrants expire ~Sep 2028)
• Guaranty book of business: ~$4.1 trillion
• Market cap: ~$8 billion (OTC, ~1.15B common shares near $7)

FNMA common is unusual to value with normal metrics. Even though Fannie Mae earns billions and holds more than $100 billion of net worth, almost none of that currently accrues to common holders: Treasury sits ahead of them with senior preferred stock whose liquidation preference exceeds $200 billion, and it holds warrants for about 79.9% of the common. The roughly $8 billion market cap is therefore not a claim on current earnings or book value but a market-implied probability that the company exits conservatorship on terms that leave value for the common after Treasury's stake is satisfied. Standard price-to-earnings or price-to-book analysis does not capture this; the price is effectively pricing a political and legal outcome.

There are three common ways to get FNMA exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic basket, so FNMA sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the basket route. Describe a thesis where FNMA fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

FNMA common stock is a speculative, event-driven wager on Fannie Mae exiting government conservatorship and recapitalizing on terms that leave value for common shareholders. It behaves like an option on government action: the share price swings sharply on headlines about a potential IPO, relisting, or warrant treatment, and the outcome is largely binary on decisions made by the Treasury, FHFA, and the administration.

Whether FNMA is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is FNMA a buy?, and where the stock could go from here in the FNMA stock forecast.

For income investors, whether FNMA pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does FNMA pay a dividend?