Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Price & How to Invest

Goosehead Insurance, founded in 2003 in Westlake, Texas by Mark and Robyn Jones, is an independent personal-lines insurance agency. It places homeowners, auto, flood, and umbrella policies with a panel of carriers and collects a commission, so it never puts capital behind a claim. It runs two channels. The Corporate Channel employs its own agents and is the training ground and proof of concept. The Franchise Channel is the scale engine: franchisees pay an initial fee and then split commissions with Goosehead, keeping the large majority of new business commissions but only about half of renewal commissions. That split is the whole economic story, because a franchise that has been operating for several years throws off renewal royalties on a book Goosehead did not have to staff. A large share of new business arrives through referral partners, particularly real estate agents and mortgage originators at the point of home purchase.

As of August 2026 the stock trades around $66 with a market capitalization near $2.37 billion on the Class A shares, against trailing twelve-month revenue of roughly $402 million. Second quarter 2026, reported in July, showed total revenue of about $113.4 million (up ~21%), core revenue of about $95.6 million (up ~10%), total written premium of about $1.36 billion (up ~14%), and policies in force of roughly 2.1 million (up ~15%). Net income was about $10.1 million and adjusted EBITDA about $37.9 million at a ~33% margin. Client retention improved to about 86%, its best reading since the homeowners hard market began. Management raised full-year 2026 organic revenue growth guidance to 12% to 19%, helped by contingent commissions, and announced that CEO Mark Miller will retire at year end with President Mark Jones Jr. succeeding him. The gap between ~21% total revenue growth and ~10% core revenue growth is the number to watch, because contingent commissions are the volatile part.

The valuation is the first-order risk: roughly 40x trailing earnings on an ~8.8% net margin leaves the stock dependent on growth staying well above the industry rate, and small-cap distribution stocks derate quickly when it does not. The homeowners hard market is a double-edged input, because rate increases lift commissions today but carrier appetite has tightened in Texas, Florida, and California, and a softening market would slow premium growth without any operational failure. Contingent commissions, which are carrier profit-sharing payments outside core revenue, drove much of the gap between ~21% total and ~10% core revenue growth in Q2 2026 and are not reliable year to year. New business is tied to home purchase activity through referral partners, so mortgage rates and existing home sales are exogenous drivers of a company-specific line. Governance carries the usual founder-controlled features of an Up-C structure with Class A and Class B shares, and the CEO transition at year end 2026 adds execution uncertainty. Goosehead also disclosed a March 2025 network intrusion where customer notification did not go out until October, which has drawn consumer litigation.

12 analysts publish price targets on GSHD, averaging $68.92 against a $66.29 price as of August 2026, or +4.0%. The published targets run from $44.00 to $100.00, a wide spread, and the ratings split 6 buy, 6 hold, 1 sell. Over the last six months there have been 8 raises and 4 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full GSHD forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Goosehead Insurance, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Renewal royalties compounding on an aging franchise book. Goosehead keeps roughly half of renewal commissions from franchise-written policies, so every cohort that stays in business adds a stream that costs the parent almost nothing to service. The most optimistic published target, $100.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. The valuation is the first-order risk: roughly 40x trailing earnings on an ~8.8% net margin leaves the stock dependent on growth staying well above the industry rate, and small-cap distribution stocks derate quickly when it does not. The most pessimistic target, $44.00, is roughly what GSHD is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on GSHD, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$401.6 million
• Revenue (Q2 2026): ~$113.4 million, up ~21% year over year (core revenue ~$95.6 million, up ~10%)
• Net income (TTM): ~$35.3 million, a net margin near 8.8%
• Adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026): ~$37.9 million, up ~30%, at a ~33% margin
• Total written premium (Q2 2026): ~$1.36 billion, up ~14%; policies in force ~2.1 million, up ~15%
• Market cap and multiple: ~$2.37 billion at ~$66 per share, roughly 40x trailing earnings and ~6x trailing revenue

Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; verify live numbers before acting. Goosehead trades far above the US insurance industry's typical earnings multiple because the market treats it as a distribution compounder rather than a carrier, and comparisons to Progressive or Allstate on P/E are not meaningful given Goosehead takes no underwriting risk. The more informative comparison is against other insurance brokers, where Goosehead is still the premium-priced name on the basis of policy and premium growth. Note also that the Up-C structure means reported EPS reflects only the Class A economic interest, so headline market cap and headline EPS are not measuring the same denominator.

Other names that sit close to GSHD: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get GSHD exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so GSHD sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where GSHD fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

Goosehead is an asset-light insurance distributor with genuinely fast premium and policy growth and a renewal royalty stream that compounds as franchise cohorts age, priced at a multiple that leaves little room for the growth rate to normalize.

Whether GSHD is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is GSHD a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the GSHD stock forecast.

For income investors, whether GSHD pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does GSHD pay a dividend? And to weigh GSHD against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: GSHD vs BRO and GSHD vs AJG.