Is MQBKY a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

Last updated July 2026

Short answer

Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested. The bull case for Macquarie Group Limited (MQBKY) rests on Home lending and deposit growth in BFS: BFS is the group's most visible growth engine. The bear case rests on the biggest swing factor is earnings quality: FY26's 30% profit jump leaned on items that do not repeat on a schedule, including the OnStream meters sale, A$1.38 billion of MAM performance fees and Macquarie Capital equity realisations, so FY27 can disappoint even if the underlying businesses grow. We do not give a verdict. What follows is each case at full strength, so you can decide which set of assumptions you actually believe. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Macquarie Group Limited is an Australian financial group organised into four operating businesses. Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) runs infrastructure, energy, real estate and private credit funds plus an Australian public investments business, with A$748.0 billion of assets under management at 30 June 2026. Banking and Financial Services (BFS) is the retail and business bank in Australia, with A$191.5 billion of home loans, A$223.3 billion of deposits and A$163.3 billion of funds on its wealth platform at the same date. Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) provides hedging, financing and trading in gas, power, oil and metals, alongside foreign exchange, interest rate and futures services and an asset finance book. Macquarie Capital does advisory and capital markets work and invests the group's own money through a A$27.2 billion private credit portfolio and a A$5.1 billion equity book. In the year to 31 March 2026 (FY26), CGM contributed A$4.22 billion, MAM A$2.60 billion, BFS A$1.61 billion and Macquarie Capital A$1.49 billion before central costs, and 68% of total income came from outside Australia. The firm started in Sydney in 1969 as Hill Samuel Australia, the local arm of a British merchant bank, with three staff. It became Macquarie Bank after winning an Australian banking licence in 1985, listed on the ASX in 1996, and in 2007 restructured so that Macquarie Group Limited sits above Macquarie Bank Limited (MBL) as a non-operating holding company. It bought Delaware Investments in the US in 2010 and has lately been reshaping the mix: it sold its North American and European public investments business to Nomura (closed 1 December 2025), sold the OnStream UK smart-meter platform in March 2026, and plans to complete the sale of Macquarie Air Finance during FY27. Shemara Wikramanayake has been CEO since December 2018 and retires on 6 November 2026. Greg Ward, who joined in 1996, spent 14 years as group CFO and now runs BFS, is due to succeed her subject to regulatory approval,. Former RBA governor Glenn Stevens chairs the board. Shareholders are mostly institutions in Australia and abroad, and staff are significant holders through the Macquarie Group Employee Retained Equity Plan (MEREP), which bought ~A$734 million of shares at an average A$238.80 in June 2026. The investment picture is a mix of steady and lumpy. BFS and MAM base fees behave like annuity businesses, and management says those two have returned about 21% on equity over 20 years. CGM and Macquarie Capital depend on market volatility, deal flow and the timing of asset realisations, and FY26 was flattered by large one-offs, including the OnStream gain and A$1.38 billion of MAM performance fees. Group return on equity was 14.0% in FY26, up from 11.2%, with a A$9.3 billion capital surplus held above APRA requirements. MQBKY adds currency and withholding-tax layers on top.

The bull case for MQBKY

1. Home lending and deposit growth in BFS

BFS is the group's most visible growth engine. Home loans rose 28% in FY26 to about A$181 billion and reached A$191.5 billion by 30 June 2026, giving Macquarie roughly 7% of the Australian mortgage market, and management says the book grew at 3.9 times system over the year. Deposits grew 25% to around A$215 billion in BFS and A$222 billion group wide, which now funds about half of the balance sheet. Management cites competition and portfolio mix as pressure on margins, so profit grows more slowly than volume. BFS contribution was A$1.61 billion in FY26 (up 17%) and rose again on the prior year in the June 2026 quarter.

2. Private markets fundraising and performance fees

MAM ended FY26 with A$218 billion of private markets equity under management and raised more than A$20 billion of new equity during the year. Its earnings swing with performance fees, which jumped A$544 million to A$1.38 billion in FY26 on realisations from funds such as MIP IV and MAIF2 and on co-investment fees tied to the Aligned Data Centers sale announced in October 2025. After selling the North American and European public investments arm, management expects base fees broadly in line in FY27 excluding that business. At 30 June 2026 MAM had A$20.3 billion of committed capital still to deploy, and AUM rose 4% in the quarter to A$748.0 billion.

3. Commodities volatility and client hedging

CGM was the largest contributor in FY26 at A$4.22 billion, up 49%. Commodities income rose by over A$600 million to A$3.6 billion as clients hedged through a brief US winter price spike and the conflict in the Middle East, and inventory management and trading income increased, especially in North American gas and power and global oil. Part of FY26 came from the one-off OnStream gain, and guidance for FY27 is net operating income broadly in line excluding it. In the June 2026 quarter CGM contribution was substantially up on a subdued prior-year quarter. This segment is the main reason Macquarie's earnings move with commodity markets more than a typical bank's do.

4. Private credit and equity realisations in Macquarie Capital

Macquarie Capital's private credit book grew 5% to over A$27 billion in FY26, with about A$11 billion deployed in the year across roughly 190 positions, and management said spreads were holding at about 4% to 4.5%. Its equity investments, often in infrastructure, energy, data centres and technology and typically held three to five years, started producing realisations, including Prime Data Centers. Contribution rose 43% to A$1.49 billion on higher advisory fees, brokerage and investment income, partly offset by higher impairments. For FY27 management expects broadly in-line transaction and investment income, and has pointed to the second half of FY27 for the next significant realisations.

5. Capital, payout and the end of the buyback

The board concluded the on-market buyback in May 2026 after A$1.01 billion of purchases at an average A$189.80 and no purchases in over 18 months, preferring to put capital into lending and investments; management says more than A$4 billion was deployed across the businesses over that period. The dividend reinvestment plan is now satisfied by issuing new shares at a 1.5% discount (the 2H26 DRP issued shares at A$233.12), which modestly dilutes holders who take cash. The payout policy is 50% to 70% of earnings, and FY26 came in at 55%. Bank Group CET1 rose to 13.8% at 30 June 2026 from 12.8% in March. APRA is also phasing out hybrid instruments as eligible capital over five years.

The bear case for MQBKY

The biggest swing factor is earnings quality: FY26's 30% profit jump leaned on items that do not repeat on a schedule, including the OnStream meters sale, A$1.38 billion of MAM performance fees and Macquarie Capital equity realisations, so FY27 can disappoint even if the underlying businesses grow. Commodities income depends on volatility and client hedging demand, which the company cannot control, and gas storage and transport income can shift between periods. Credit is a second risk: the group took A$478 million of credit impairments in FY26, A$461 million of it in the second half, citing macroeconomic uncertainty and the Middle East conflict, and its loan portfolio grew 23% to A$253 billion, so a downturn in Australian housing or in private credit borrowers would show up quickly. The remaining ~A$700 million Green Investments portfolio, mostly solar, has already taken A$379 million of impairments. Regulatory exposure is real: ASIC sued Macquarie Securities in May 2025 over alleged misreporting of short sales across 14 years, MBL was fined a record A$4.995 million in 2024 over suspicious electricity futures orders, and MBL operates under additional ASIC licence conditions while governance remediation continues. BFS margins are being squeezed by mortgage and deposit competition from the major Australian banks. Finally, MQBKY holders carry risks local holders do not: returns in US dollars depend on the AUD exchange rate, the ADR trades over the counter with thinner volume than MQG on the ASX, franking credits are of no use to most US investors, and dividends are paid net of Australian withholding and depositary fees.

The bear case deserves the same attention as the bull case, and usually gets less. If you are holding MQBKY already, the question is not whether these risks exist but whether any of them has moved from possible to actually happening in the reported numbers.

Where analysts land on MQBKY

Too few analysts publish on MQBKY for a consensus target to mean anything, so there is no professional average to weigh against your own view. That cuts both ways: less informed opinion to lean on, and less of it already priced in. The MQBKY forecast page covers what coverage does exist.

How is MQBKY valued? (as of October 2026)

Price

$174.49

Market cap

$66.50B

P/E (TTM)

25.25

Forward P/E

19.71

Price / book

2.61

Beta

0.88

52-week range

$122.37 to $190.30

Snapshot for MQBKY as of October 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.

Net operating income (FY26, to Mar 2026): ~A$19.5B (up 13%)
Net profit after tax (FY26): ~A$4.85B (up 30%)
Earnings per share (FY26): A$12.77
Return on equity (FY26): 14.0% (FY25: 11.2%)
FY26 ordinary dividend: A$7.00 per share, 35% franked
Assets under management (Jun 2026): ~A$748B

Using the A$238.80 average price of the June 2026 employee share purchase, the ordinary shares traded at roughly 19 times FY26 earnings per share, and the A$7.00 dividend was a yield of about 2.9% before withholding. FY26 profit included sizeable one-off gains, so that multiple looks lower than it would on a normalised year. Second-half FY26 profit of A$3.19 billion was up 93% on the first half, a sign of how uneven earnings are. Operating expenses rose 5%, slower than income. Management gave no numerical FY27 guidance, only business-by-business directions and a cautious stance on capital, funding and liquidity, and US dollar figures for MQBKY will also move with the Australian dollar.

How do you decide if MQBKY is a buy?

Rather than asking whether MQBKY is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:

Thesis: do you believe the bull case above, and is it still true today?
Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
Overlap: check whether you already hold MQBKY indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.

What would change your mind on MQBKY

Write the tripwires down before you need them. Deciding what would falsify your view is far harder once a position is moving against you.

Bull case breaks if: Home lending and deposit growth in BFS stalls in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative around them.
Bear case breaks if: the biggest swing factor is earnings quality: FY26's 30% profit jump leaned on items that do not repeat on a schedule, including the OnStream meters sale, A$1.38 billion of MAM performance fees and Macquarie Capital equity realisations, so FY27 can disappoint even if the underlying businesses grow fails to materialise over several reporting periods while the drivers keep compounding.
Neither matters if: the position has grown large enough that being wrong would damage the whole portfolio. Sizing overrides the argument.

For the full picture, see the MQBKY stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about MQBKY against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.

Investing in Macquarie Group Limited with AI

Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how MQBKY fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.

Does MQBKY fit me?

FAQ

Is MQBKY a good stock to buy right now?

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Home lending and deposit growth in BFS, with net operating income (fy26, to mar 2026) at ~A$19.5B (up 13%). The bear case rests on the biggest swing factor is earnings quality: FY26's 30% profit jump leaned on items that do not repeat on a schedule, including the OnStream meters sale, A$1.38 billion of MAM performance fees and Macquarie Capital equity realisations, so FY27 can disappoint even if the underlying businesses grow. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Should I sell MQBKY?

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The biggest swing factor is earnings quality: FY26's 30% profit jump leaned on items that do not repeat on a schedule, including the OnStream meters sale, A$1.38 billion of MAM performance fees and Macquarie Capital equity realisations, so FY27 can disappoint even if the underlying businesses grow. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

What is the bull case for MQBKY?

Home lending and deposit growth in BFS. BFS is the group's most visible growth engine.

What is the bear case for MQBKY?

What does Macquarie Group Limited do?

Australian financial group spanning infrastructure and private-markets asset management, home lending, commodities trading and investment banking.

What would have to change for MQBKY to stop being worth holding?

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Home lending and deposit growth in BFS) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the biggest swing factor is earnings quality: FY26's 30% profit jump leaned on items that do not repeat on a schedule, including the OnStream meters sale, A$1.38 billion of MAM performance fees and Macquarie Capital equity realisations, so FY27 can disappoint even if the underlying businesses grow) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

What is MQBKY?

MQBKY is the ticker for the American depositary receipt of Macquarie Group Limited, quoted over the counter in the US. The company's primary listing is MQG on the Australian Securities Exchange. Each ADR represents ordinary shares held by a depositary bank, so its US dollar price follows the ASX share price adjusted for the AUD to USD exchange rate and the ADR ratio.

How do I buy Macquarie Group stock in the US?

US investors can trade MQBKY through most brokers that support OTC securities, during US market hours. Some brokers restrict or charge more for OTC ADRs, and trading volume is lower than in MQG on the ASX, so spreads can be wider. Investors with international trading access can also buy MQG directly in Australia, in Australian dollars.

Is MQBKY on the NYSE or Nasdaq?

No. MQBKY is quoted on the US over-the-counter market and listed as a sponsored ADR (S/ADR) by quote providers. Macquarie reports under Australian rules, publishing results on the ASX and its investor website rather than in SEC annual reports.

Walnut is informational, not investment advice, and gives no verdict on MQBKY. Analyst targets referenced here come from a October 2026 pull of published third-party research and change constantly. Verify current figures with your broker before acting on them.