Is RELX a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

Last updated October 2026

Short answer

Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested. The bull case for RELX PLC (RELX) rests on Risk analytics as the growth and profit engine: LexisNexis Risk Solutions serves insurers, banks, governments and e-commerce firms with fraud, identity and underwriting data, and in 2025 it grew underlying revenue 8% and underlying adjusted operating profit 10%. The bear case rests on the most-discussed risk is that generative AI tools from OpenAI, Anthropic, Harvey, Thomson Reuters and others weaken the value of curated legal and scientific content, or push prices down. We do not give a verdict. What follows is each case at full strength, so you can decide which set of assumptions you actually believe. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

RELX PLC is a UK-headquartered provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers, formed from the old Reed Elsevier. It runs four segments. Risk (LexisNexis Risk Solutions) supplies fraud, identity, credit and insurance analytics and is the largest profit contributor. Scientific, Technical and Medical (Elsevier) publishes journals such as The Lancet and Cell and runs databases like ScienceDirect and Scopus, with databases, tools and electronic reference making up around 40% of its revenue. Legal (LexisNexis) sells legal research and AI-assisted drafting, including Lexis+ AI and the Protégé assistant. Exhibitions (RX) organises trade shows worldwide. In 2025 the group generated about £9.6bn of revenue and about £3.34bn of adjusted operating profit, a margin near 34.8%, and most revenue is recurring subscription or transactional income. Underlying revenue growth in 2025 was 8% in Risk, 5% in STM, 9% in Legal and 8% in Exhibitions, so every division contributed. The ordinary shares list in London (REL) and Amsterdam, and the sponsored NYSE ADR represents one ordinary share. The investment picture is a split between fundamentals and sentiment. RELX reported first-half 2026 revenue of about £4.87bn (+7% underlying) and adjusted operating profit of about £1.73bn (+9% underlying), lifted its margin to about 35.5%, raised its interim dividend about 7% to 20.9p and kept buying back stock, with roughly 74m shares repurchased in 2026 through late July. Adjusted operating profit came in slightly ahead of consensus, while reported revenue was a touch below it because of the weaker dollar. Even so, the ADR closed at about $38.42 on October 15, 2026, down roughly 5% year to date, below the top of its 52-week range ($27.57 to $47.22) and roughly a third below its 2025 all-time high near $56, because investors worry that large language models could commoditise legal research and scientific content. JPMorgan has argued those fears have gone too far, and Morningstar describes the shares as deeply undervalued with an intact wide moat. Skeptics, including some UK commentators, argue the multiple deserved to come down from levels of around 25x earnings or more, and that the long-term threat is still unproven in either direction.

The bull case for RELX

1. Risk analytics as the growth and profit engine

LexisNexis Risk Solutions serves insurers, banks, governments and e-commerce firms with fraud, identity and underwriting data, and in 2025 it grew underlying revenue 8% and underlying adjusted operating profit 10%. Demand is tied to transaction volumes, insurance quoting and regulatory compliance rather than discretionary budgets, which has historically made the segment resilient through economic cycles. Its value comes from large proprietary datasets, such as US auto and property insurance claims histories and digital identity networks, that are hard for a new entrant or an AI model to replicate. Management described Risk growth as continuing strong into 2026, and it is the segment least exposed to the generative AI debate.

2. Legal AI products turning disruption into revenue

Legal grew underlying revenue 9% and underlying adjusted operating profit 12% in 2025, the fastest of the four segments, which RELX attributes largely to a mix shift toward analytics and AI tools such as Lexis+ AI and Protégé. The company argues that AI answers grounded in its proprietary case law, citations and Shepard's citator data are more reliable than general-purpose models, and that this supports higher prices per seat. Law firms and corporate legal departments have been early adopters of generative AI, which cuts both ways: it creates demand for RELX's tools and invites competition from AI-native rivals. Whether pricing power holds as those rivals mature is the central question for this segment and for the share price.

3. Elsevier shifting from publishing toward analytics

Elsevier grew underlying revenue 5% and underlying adjusted operating profit 7% in 2025, described by management as good growth with improving momentum. The improvement has come from databases, clinical decision tools such as ClinicalKey, and research analytics rather than journal subscriptions alone, which now make up a smaller share of the mix. Open-access publishing mandates and academic budget pressure have weighed on the business for years, so the shift toward higher-value tools matters for long-term growth. Licensing content to AI developers and embedding generative AI into products like ScienceDirect and Scopus are newer, less proven levers.

4. Capital returns and margin expansion

RELX has pushed its adjusted operating margin from about 33.9% in 2024 to about 34.8% in 2025 and about 35.5% in the first half of 2026, because costs have grown slower than revenue. It completed a £1.5bn buyback in 2025, made five small acquisitions for about £270m, and kept net debt to EBITDA near 2.0x. The full-year 2025 dividend rose 7% to 67.5p, and buybacks continued at a faster pace in 2026. That combination is a big part of why adjusted EPS has grown faster than revenue, at about 10% at constant currency in 2025 and 11% in the first half of 2026.

The bear case for RELX

The most-discussed risk is that generative AI tools from OpenAI, Anthropic, Harvey, Thomson Reuters and others weaken the value of curated legal and scientific content, or push prices down. That fear has already driven a large de-rating, with Morningstar putting the peak-to-trough decline from the 2025 high at roughly 50%, even though reported growth has not slowed. Elsevier faces ongoing pressure from open-access mandates and constrained university and government research budgets, including the risk of US federal research funding cuts. The Exhibitions business is cyclical and depends on corporate travel and marketing spending, and it was nearly shut down during the pandemic. RELX reports in sterling but earns heavily in US dollars, so currency swings move reported results and the ADR price, as the weaker dollar showed in the first half of 2026. The Risk segment also handles sensitive personal data, which brings regulatory, privacy and data-security exposure.

The bear case deserves the same attention as the bull case, and usually gets less. If you are holding RELX already, the question is not whether these risks exist but whether any of them has moved from possible to actually happening in the reported numbers.

Where analysts land on RELX

Too few analysts publish on RELX for a consensus target to mean anything, so there is no professional average to weigh against your own view. That cuts both ways: less informed opinion to lean on, and less of it already priced in. The RELX forecast page covers what coverage does exist.

How is RELX valued? (as of October 2026)

Price

$39.06

Market cap

$67.84B

P/E (TTM)

23.39

Forward P/E

18.27

Price / book

165.59

Beta

0.28

52-week range

$27.57 to $47.22

Snapshot for RELX as of October 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.

Revenue (FY2025): ~£9.6bn (+7% underlying)
Revenue (H1 2026): ~£4.87bn (+7% underlying)
Adjusted operating margin (H1 2026): ~35.5%
Adjusted EPS (FY2025): ~128.5p (+10% constant currency)
Market cap: ~$67bn (ADR ~$38.42)
P/E (trailing adjusted): ~20-21x

At an ADR price of about $38.42 on October 15, 2026, RELX trades near 20 to 21 times trailing adjusted earnings of roughly 134p, compared with a historical average closer to the mid-20s and a dividend yield of roughly 2.5%. JPMorgan put the shares at about 21x forecast 2026 earnings earlier in the year, down from about 24x a year before, and the multiple has compressed further since. Analyst views diverge widely, from Morningstar's fair value estimate of 4,200p (about $57 per ADR at the time) to UK commentators who see the de-rating as justified. The company's third-quarter trading update is expected around October 22, 2026, and RELX typically gives only qualitative commentary at that point, not full figures.

How do you decide if RELX is a buy?

Rather than asking whether RELX is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:

Thesis: do you believe the bull case above, and is it still true today?
Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
Overlap: check whether you already hold RELX indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.

What would change your mind on RELX

Write the tripwires down before you need them. Deciding what would falsify your view is far harder once a position is moving against you.

Bull case breaks if: Risk analytics as the growth and profit engine stalls in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative around them.
Bear case breaks if: the most-discussed risk is that generative AI tools from OpenAI, Anthropic, Harvey, Thomson Reuters and others weaken the value of curated legal and scientific content, or push prices down fails to materialise over several reporting periods while the drivers keep compounding.
Neither matters if: the position has grown large enough that being wrong would damage the whole portfolio. Sizing overrides the argument.

For the full picture, see the RELX stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about RELX against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.

Investing in RELX PLC with AI

Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how RELX fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.

Does RELX fit me?

FAQ

Is RELX a good stock to buy right now?

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Risk analytics as the growth and profit engine, with revenue (fy2025) at ~£9.6bn (+7% underlying). The bear case rests on the most-discussed risk is that generative AI tools from OpenAI, Anthropic, Harvey, Thomson Reuters and others weaken the value of curated legal and scientific content, or push prices down. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Should I sell RELX?

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The most-discussed risk is that generative AI tools from OpenAI, Anthropic, Harvey, Thomson Reuters and others weaken the value of curated legal and scientific content, or push prices down. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

What is the bull case for RELX?

Risk analytics as the growth and profit engine. LexisNexis Risk Solutions serves insurers, banks, governments and e-commerce firms with fraud, identity and underwriting data, and in 2025 it grew underlying revenue 8% and underlying adjusted operating profit 10%.

What is the bear case for RELX?

What does RELX PLC do?

London-based provider of information and analytics for risk, science (Elsevier), legal (LexisNexis) and exhibitions.

What would have to change for RELX to stop being worth holding?

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Risk analytics as the growth and profit engine) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the most-discussed risk is that generative AI tools from OpenAI, Anthropic, Harvey, Thomson Reuters and others weaken the value of curated legal and scientific content, or push prices down) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

What does RELX actually do?

RELX sells information and analytics to professionals and businesses through four segments. Risk (LexisNexis Risk Solutions) provides fraud detection, identity verification and insurance data, and is the largest profit contributor. Scientific, Technical and Medical (Elsevier) publishes research journals such as The Lancet and runs databases and clinical tools. Legal (LexisNexis) provides legal research and AI-assisted drafting tools to law firms and corporate legal teams. Exhibitions (RX) organises trade shows around the world. Most revenue is recurring subscriptions or transactional fees, which is why its results tend to be steady from year to year. In 2025 the group produced about £9.6bn of revenue at an adjusted operating margin near 35%, and all four segments grew underlying revenue between 5% and 9%.

What is the RELX ticker on the NYSE, and how does the ADR work?

In the US, RELX PLC trades as a sponsored American Depositary Receipt under the ticker RELX on the New York Stock Exchange. Each ADR represents one ordinary share, which also trades in London under REL and in Amsterdam. The ADR is priced in US dollars, so its value reflects both the London share price and the pound to dollar exchange rate, which means a stronger pound lifts the ADR even if the London price is flat. Dividends are declared in pence or euro cents and converted to dollars for ADR holders, and the depositary bank may charge small per-share fees. Because RELX is a UK company, it reports twice a year with brief trading updates in between, following UK rules rather than US 10-K and 10-Q forms.

How did RELX perform in its most recent results?

In its first-half 2026 results, published July 23, 2026, RELX reported revenue of about £4.87bn, up 7% on an underlying basis, and adjusted operating profit of about £1.73bn, up 9% underlying. The adjusted operating margin rose to about 35.5% from 34.8%. Adjusted EPS was 68.6p, up 11% at constant currency, and the interim dividend rose to 20.9p from 19.5p. Reported revenue grew only about 2.7% because of currency effects, and was slightly below the roughly £4.91bn consensus cited by Bloomberg, while adjusted operating profit was a little ahead of expectations. Management reaffirmed its full-year outlook for strong underlying growth in revenue, adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share at constant currency.

Walnut is informational, not investment advice, and gives no verdict on RELX. Analyst targets referenced here come from a October 2026 pull of published third-party research and change constantly. Verify current figures with your broker before acting on them.