SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Stock Price & How to Invest

SPS Commerce runs a cloud-based retail supply-chain network that connects retailers, suppliers, distributors, and logistics providers through electronic data interchange (EDI) and related sales and item-data services. Its flagship Fulfillment product is a full-service EDI solution: SPS supplies the technology plus a team of experts who map, operate, and maintain the connections on customers' behalf, giving it access to the industry's largest library of pre-mapped trading-partner connections. The business is overwhelmingly recurring, built on tens of thousands of subscribing customers and a network that gets more valuable as more retailers and suppliers join.

The investment picture is one of a high-quality compounder that has downshifted. Revenue growth has slowed from the mid-teens of prior years to roughly 5-6% in the first half of 2026 (Q2 revenue was about $198M, up about 5.6% year over year), and the stock fell to a 52-week low near $49 as investors reset expectations. Management is leaning into a profitability-first stance, expanded through the SupplyPike acquisition, and has since sold Carbon6, the Amazon-seller software business it bought in 2024, a move analysts tied to more predictable growth. Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.27 beat the roughly $1.09 consensus, though GAAP net income fell to about $7M in the quarter.

The story changed in September. On September 11, 2026, Bloomberg reported that GTCR was in advanced talks to acquire SPS after activist investors had pushed for a sale, and the stock jumped. As of October 16 the shares sit near $85, above the roughly $77 average analyst target, with no definitive agreement announced. The next report, Q3 2026, is scheduled for October 29.

Growth has decelerated markedly, from mid-teens in prior years to roughly 5-6%, and any further slowdown could keep pressure on the multiple. The shares now reflect reported takeover talks with GTCR; if those talks end without a deal, the stock could give back much of its recent gain, since it trades above the roughly $77 average analyst target. GAAP earnings fell sharply in 2026 (trailing net income about $78M, with Q2 net income near $7M), so the trailing P/E of about 41x looks expensive even though the forward multiple is near 16x. The core EDI market is mature and faces competition from lower-cost alternatives and large ERP vendors. Earning a return on SupplyPike and executing on the Carbon6 exit carry execution risk, and macro softness in retail spending and inventory can slow new supplier additions.

11 analysts publish price targets on SPSC, averaging $76.82 against a $85.25 price as of October 2026, or -9.9%. The published targets run from $59.00 to $103.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 3 buy, 8 hold, 1 sell. Over the last six months there have been 6 raises and 5 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full SPSC forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on SPS Commerce, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Network-effect recurring revenue. SPS operates the largest retail supply-chain network in North America, and recurring revenue is the large majority of the total. The most optimistic published target, $103.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Growth has decelerated markedly, from mid-teens in prior years to roughly 5-6%, and any further slowdown could keep pressure on the multiple. The most pessimistic target, $59.00, is roughly what SPSC is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on SPSC, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Yes. SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) has had one share split in the last 10 years:

• 2:1 on August 23, 2019, so every share held became 2 shares.

A split changes the share count and the price per share and leaves the value of a holding unchanged. Someone holding $1,000 of SPSC the day before the 2:1 split held $1,000 the day after, in more shares at a proportionally lower price. Historical prices from before the date are normally shown split-adjusted, which is why a long-run chart shows no cliff.

Splits matter mainly because they make older price figures confusing to compare by hand, and because a board choosing to split is usually signalling that the price has run up far enough to feel awkward for smaller buyers. Neither is a reason to buy or sell.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see SPS Commerce, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$772M
• Q2 2026 revenue growth: ~5.6% YoY
• Q2 2026 adjusted EPS vs estimate: $1.27 vs ~$1.09
• Operating / net margin: ~16% / ~10%
• Free cash flow (TTM): ~$177M
• P/E trailing / forward: ~41x / ~16x
• Market cap: ~$3.1B

SPSC closes near $85 on October 16, 2026, up from a 52-week low near $49 but below a 52-week high near $115, after reports of GTCR buyout talks lifted the shares. The trailing P/E of about 41x is inflated by depressed 2026 GAAP earnings, while the forward P/E near 16x and about 4x sales look modest for a profitable SaaS network. Analysts average a hold rating with a target near $77, below the current price, which suggests part of today's valuation rests on a possible deal.

Other names that sit close to SPSC: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get SPSC exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so SPSC sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where SPSC fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

SPSC pairs a defensible retail-network moat and steady recurring revenue with mid-single-digit growth. The shares have rebounded sharply from their 2026 lows on reported takeover talks with GTCR, so the stock now carries deal speculation on top of the operating story, with no agreement announced as of mid-October 2026.

Whether SPSC is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is SPSC a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the SPSC stock forecast.

For income investors, whether SPSC pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does SPSC pay a dividend? And to weigh SPSC against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: SPSC vs SAP and SPSC vs ORCL.