Is TKO a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)
Last updated October 2026
Short answer
Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested. The bull case for TKO Group Holdings (TKO) rests on Media-rights repricing: TKO's core economic engine is selling multi-year rights to its events. The bear case rests on tKO's value is concentrated in a small number of large rights deals, so any renewal at lower-than-expected terms, or a slip in audience engagement, would matter a lot. Analysts covering it publish targets from $185.00 to $250.00 against a $175.50 price, so even the professionals disagree by 28% of their own average. We do not give a verdict. What follows is each case at full strength, so you can decide which set of assumptions you actually believe. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
TKO Group Holdings owns two of the most recognizable combat-sports and entertainment brands in the world, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), and after a February 2025 transaction also owns IMG, On Location, and Professional Bull Riders (PBR). The company makes money primarily from media rights (multi-year deals to broadcast and stream its events), live event ticketing and site fees, sponsorship, licensing, and hospitality. The headline example is the roughly $7.7 billion, seven-year UFC media-rights agreement with Paramount that begins in 2026, moving UFC's numbered events onto Paramount+ and away from the traditional pay-per-view model; across all brands TKO says it has more than $15 billion of long-term media rights secured. TKO was formed in 2023 when Endeavor combined UFC, which it had owned since 2016, with WWE, the wrestling business built by the McMahon family, into a single publicly traded company listed on the NYSE. Endeavor (taken private by Silver Lake in 2025) holds a controlling stake of roughly 61%, so TKO trades publicly while a controlling shareholder steers strategy. Ari Emanuel is CEO and chairman, and the February 2025 addition of IMG, On Location, and PBR broadened TKO from pure combat sports toward a wider live-sports and events platform. The 2026 numbers show the Paramount deal and the IMG and On Location assets arriving in the income statement. Revenue was about $1.60 billion in Q1 and $1.55 billion in Q2 2026, against $1.12 billion in Q3 2025, and trailing revenue reached about $5.3 billion. Q2 EPS of $1.34 beat the ~$1.09 consensus after a near-miss in Q1 ($1.12 versus $1.14). The stock has not followed the operating results: it closed at $176.55 on October 16, 2026, down about 15% year to date and about 6% over twelve months, just above the $170.92 bottom of its 52-week range (high $226.94), for a market value near $33 billion. Third quarter results are due November 4, 2026, with consensus revenue of about $1.38 billion.
The bull case: what would have to be true for $250.00
The most optimistic published target on TKO is $250.00, +42.5% from the $175.50 price as of October 2026. Getting there needs the following to work close to its best case, not merely to avoid going wrong.
Media-rights repricing
TKO's core economic engine is selling multi-year rights to its events. The new UFC deal with Paramount, at roughly $7.7 billion over seven years starting in 2026, was a sizable step up from the prior arrangement. With more than $15 billion of long-term rights secured across its brands, a large share of near-term revenue is contracted rather than speculative. Revenue growth of about 18% year over year in Q2 2026 is the first evidence of the repriced UFC deal flowing through.
Scarce, must-watch live IP
UFC and WWE produce year-round live programming that audiences watch in real time, which is valuable to streamers and networks trying to anchor subscriptions. That scarcity gives TKO pricing leverage in rights negotiations. Unlike scripted content libraries, live events resist time-shifting and are harder for competitors to replicate.
Margin and synergies
Combining UFC and WWE under one roof was pitched on cost synergies and shared infrastructure. Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of about $1.585 billion grew roughly 47% year over year at a margin near 33.5%, and management has guided to higher revenue and EBITDA for 2026. The model converts a large portion of revenue into operating profit. Trailing EBITDA is now about $1.62 billion and operating margin about 32%, while free cash flow over the last twelve months was about $856 million on $1.8 billion of operating cash flow.
Expanded asset base
The 2025 addition of IMG, On Location, and PBR widened TKO beyond combat sports into events, hospitality, and rights representation. New ventures such as Zuffa Boxing add optionality. These assets diversify the revenue mix but also add integration work and exposure to the broader live-events cycle.
The bear case: what would have to be true for $185.00
The most pessimistic published target is $185.00, +5.4% from the current price. That is not a floor and not a forecast; it is roughly what one analyst thinks TKO Group Holdings is worth if the risks below bite instead of the drivers above.
TKO's value is concentrated in a small number of large rights deals, so any renewal at lower-than-expected terms, or a slip in audience engagement, would matter a lot. The business carries talent, reputational, and regulatory exposure (athlete relations, litigation, and the inherent headline risk of combat sports and a high-profile leadership). A controlling shareholder, Endeavor, holds roughly 61% of votes, which limits the influence of public minority holders. And the stock trades at a high earnings multiple, so disappointments can be punished sharply. The dividend is a newer pressure point: at $3.16 a year it yields about 1.8% but exceeds trailing GAAP earnings (a payout ratio near 109%), so it depends on cash flow rather than reported profit. Debt of about $4.95 billion against ~$592 million of cash adds leverage, and analysts have started trimming targets, with Susquehanna cutting its target to $224 from $235 on October 16, 2026.
The bear case deserves the same attention as the bull case, and usually gets less. If you are holding TKO already, the question is not whether these risks exist but whether any of them has moved from possible to actually happening in the reported numbers.
Where analysts land on TKO
19 analysts cover TKO, with an average target of $231.63 (+32.0% against $175.50) and a split of 18 buy, 4 hold, 0 sell. Bear in mind sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market, so that split is not a balanced vote. The full target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted are on the TKO forecast and price target page.
How is TKO valued? (as of October 2026)
Snapshot for TKO as of October 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
- Revenue (TTM): ~$5.3 billion
- Revenue growth (Q2 2026, y/y): ~18%
- Operating margin (TTM): ~32%
- Net income attributable to TKO (TTM): ~$230 million (EPS ~$2.86)
- P/E (trailing / forward): ~62x / ~38x
- Dividend yield: ~1.8% ($3.16 a year)
- Market cap: ~$33 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA (FY2025): ~$1.585 billion (up ~47% YoY)
At $176.55, TKO trades at about 62 times trailing earnings and 38 times forward earnings, but closer to 14 times EBITDA on an enterprise basis, because amortization, acquisition accounting and the share of profit belonging to Endeavor's stake weigh on the net income attributable to public holders; that is why many investors watch EV/EBITDA and the contracted rights backlog instead. Management guided to roughly $5.7 billion of revenue and $2.2 to 2.3 billion of adjusted EBITDA for 2026, and analysts expect about $5.8 billion of revenue. The 19 analysts tracked by Yahoo Finance hold a consensus strong buy rating with a mean target near $232, well above the current price.
How do you decide if TKO is a buy?
Rather than asking whether TKO is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:
- Thesis: do you believe the bull case above, and is it still true today?
- Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
- Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
- Overlap: check whether you already hold TKO indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.
What would change your mind on TKO
Write the tripwires down before you need them. Deciding what would falsify your view is far harder once a position is moving against you.
- Bull case breaks if: Media-rights repricing stalls in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative around them.
- Bear case breaks if: tKO's value is concentrated in a small number of large rights deals, so any renewal at lower-than-expected terms, or a slip in audience engagement, would matter a lot fails to materialise over several reporting periods while the drivers keep compounding.
- Neither matters if: the position has grown large enough that being wrong would damage the whole portfolio. Sizing overrides the argument.
For the full picture, see the TKO stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about TKO against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.
Investing in TKO Group Holdings with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how TKO fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
Is TKO a good stock to buy right now?
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That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Media-rights repricing, with revenue (ttm) at ~$5.3 billion. The bear case rests on tKO's value is concentrated in a small number of large rights deals, so any renewal at lower-than-expected terms, or a slip in audience engagement, would matter a lot. Analysts covering it are spread from $185.00 to $250.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.
Should I sell TKO?
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Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. TKO's value is concentrated in a small number of large rights deals, so any renewal at lower-than-expected terms, or a slip in audience engagement, would matter a lot. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $185.00, +5.4% from the $175.50 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What is the bull case for TKO?
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Media-rights repricing. TKO's core economic engine is selling multi-year rights to its events. The most optimistic analyst target on TKO is $250.00, +42.5% from the $175.50 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.
What is the bear case for TKO?
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TKO's value is concentrated in a small number of large rights deals, so any renewal at lower-than-expected terms, or a slip in audience engagement, would matter a lot. The business carries talent, reputational, and regulatory exposure (athlete relations, litigation, and the inherent headline risk of combat sports and a high-profile leadership). A controlling shareholder, Endeavor, holds roughly 61% of votes, which limits the influence of public minority holders. And the stock trades at a high earnings multiple, so disappointments can be punished sharply. The dividend is a newer pressure point: at $3.16 a year it yields about 1.8% but exceeds trailing GAAP earnings (a payout ratio near 109%), so it depends on cash flow rather than reported profit. Debt of about $4.95 billion against ~$592 million of cash adds leverage, and analysts have started trimming targets, with Susquehanna cutting its target to $224 from $235 on October 16, 2026. The most pessimistic published target is $185.00, +5.4% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.
What does TKO Group Holdings do?
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TKO Group Holdings owns two of the most recognizable combat-sports and entertainment brands in the world, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and World Wrestling Entertainment
What would have to change for TKO to stop being worth holding?
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Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Media-rights repricing) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (tKO's value is concentrated in a small number of large rights deals, so any renewal at lower-than-expected terms, or a slip in audience engagement, would matter a lot) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.
Is TKO a good stock to buy right now?
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That depends on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, and this is not advice. The bull case is scarce live-sports IP and rights deals that keep repricing higher, like the roughly $7.7 billion UFC-Paramount agreement. The bear case is heavy concentration in a few deals, a controlling shareholder, and a high earnings multiple that leaves little margin for disappointment.
What does TKO Group own?
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TKO owns the UFC (mixed martial arts) and WWE (professional wrestling), its two flagship brands. After a February 2025 transaction it also owns IMG, On Location, and Professional Bull Riders (PBR), and it operates ventures such as Zuffa Boxing. Together these span media rights, live events, hospitality, sponsorship, and licensing.
Does TKO pay a dividend?
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Yes. TKO pays a quarterly cash dividend and declared its third quarter 2026 dividend on September 3, 2026; the annual rate is about $3.16 per share, a yield near 1.8% at the October 16, 2026 price of $176.55. That payout is larger than trailing GAAP earnings, so it is funded from cash flow, and the company has also returned capital through share repurchases. Dividend amounts can change, so the latest declaration is the reference point.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice, and gives no verdict on TKO. Analyst targets referenced here come from a October 2026 pull of published third-party research and change constantly. Verify current figures with your broker before acting on them.