Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock Forecast and Price Target (2026)
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
8 analysts covering Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) carry an average price target of $6.61 as of August 2026, +8.0% against the $6.12 price at the time of the pull. The published targets run from $5.00 to $8.00, a spread of 45% of the average, so the disagreement is moderate. The rating split is 6 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
UGP analyst price targets
UGP analyst data as of August 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a forecast Walnut endorses, and targets are typically set on a 12-month view. Verify current figures before deciding.
The average target of $6.61 sits above the $6.12 price, +8.0%. The median is $6.65, and where the two differ the median is the steadier read, because one unusually high or low target cannot drag it.
What the UGP target range actually tells you
The published targets span $5.00 to $8.00. That gap is 45% of the average target, which counts as moderate disagreement. That is a fairly typical spread: enough agreement that the average means something, enough disagreement that it should not be treated as precise.
The useful move is to read the high target as one bull scenario and the low target as one bear scenario, then ask which set of assumptions you find more plausible. Both cases are worked through on the UGP is it a buy page.
Recent analyst actions on UGP
| Firm | Action | Target | Prior | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | Raised (Buy) | $7.40 | $6.80 | July 8, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Raised (Neutral) | $6.80 | $6.30 | June 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Raised (Buy) | $7.20 | $7.00 | June 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Initiated (Buy) | $7.00 | - | April 28, 2026 |
| HSBC | Raised (Hold) | $6.00 | $4.90 | April 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Raised (Hold) | $5.60 | $3.10 | March 13, 2026 |
The most recent published rating actions on UGP within the last six months, from Yahoo Finance. Each row is dated because a target only means something alongside the date it was set. Walnut is not an investment adviser and does not endorse any of these views.
In the last six months there have been 5 raises and 0 cuts among these actions. The direction of revisions is often more telling than the level, because it shows which way informed opinion is moving.
How analysts rate UGP
Of the analysts with a published rating, 6 say buy, 3 say hold, and 0 say sell, so 67% carry a buy. That buy share has risen over the last three months, so sentiment is drifting more positive.
Read the distribution rather than the label. Sell ratings are rare across the entire market for structural reasons, so a stock with no sell ratings is unremarkable, while even a handful of them is worth understanding.
Why a UGP price target is not a prediction
- It is a 12-month model output. An analyst picks assumptions for revenue, margin, and a multiple, and the target falls out of the arithmetic. Change one assumption and the target moves a lot.
- The distribution is skewed. Sell-side coverage carries far more buy ratings than sell ratings across the whole market, so the average is not a balanced vote.
- Targets follow price as often as they lead it. Revisions frequently arrive after a move, not before, which is why a rising target is weak evidence on its own.
- Nobody is scored on it. There is no cost to a target that never gets close, so treat accuracy as unverified unless you check the firm's record yourself.
What could move UGP from here
In short: the drivers cited most often are Ipiranga margin per litre, not volume, Ultragaz as the steady cash line, Terminal and corridor capacity coming online. The risk cited most often against it is brazilian fuel distribution competes against a persistent informal segment that evades ICMS fuel taxes and undercuts compliant distributors on price, so enforcement policy is a direct input to Ipiranga's margin rather than a background issue.
Both sides are worked through properly, with the high and low targets used as the bull and bear anchors, on the UGP is it a buy page. This page deliberately stops at the numbers.
Investing in Ultrapar Participacoes with AI
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FAQ
What is the price target for Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP)?
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The average analyst price target for UGP is $6.61 as of August 2026, across 8 analysts. That is +8.0% against the $6.12 price at the time of the data pull, so the consensus sits above where the stock trades. The median target, which is less distorted by one extreme view, is $6.65. Targets move constantly; verify the current figure before relying on it.
How high could UGP go?
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The highest published target is $8.00, which is +30.7% against the $6.12 price. That is one analyst's most optimistic case, not a ceiling and not a forecast. The lowest is $5.00. The gap between them is the honest answer to this question: analysts who all follow Ultrapar Participacoes closely disagree by 45% of the average target, so treat any single number as one scenario.
How many analysts cover UGP?
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8 analysts publish estimates on UGP as of August 2026. Of those with a published rating, 6 say buy, 3 hold, and 0 sell, so 67% carry a buy rating. More coverage usually means the consensus is better informed, though it also means the obvious points are already in the price.
Are analyst price targets for UGP accurate?
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Treat them as informed opinion, not measurement. Two things are worth knowing. Sell-side ratings skew positive across the market, and UGP is no exception at 67% buy ratings, so the distribution is not a balanced vote. And targets tend to follow the share price at least as often as they lead it, getting raised after a stock has already run. They are most useful as a read on what the informed consensus expects, and least useful as a prediction of where the price lands.
Has the UGP price target been raised or cut recently?
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In the last six months there have been 5 raises and 0 cuts among the published actions on UGP. The most recent was B of A Securities, which raised its target to $7.40 from $6.80 on July 8, 2026. The direction of revisions often tells you more than the level, because it shows which way the informed view is moving.
Is analyst sentiment on UGP improving?
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Over the last three months the share of analysts rating UGP a buy has been rising. That is a shift in opinion, not in the business, and it often lags the news that caused it. It is worth watching alongside the target revisions rather than on its own.
Will UGP go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, including the analysts publishing targets. What the numbers on this page tell you is where informed opinion currently sits and how much it disagrees with itself, which is genuinely useful and completely different from a prediction. The risk most often cited against Ultrapar Participacoes: Brazilian fuel distribution competes against a persistent informal segment that evades ICMS fuel taxes and undercuts compliant distributors on price, so enforcement policy is a direct input to Ipiranga's margin rather than a background issue. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice, and does not publish price targets of its own. The analyst figures on this page come from a August 2026 data pull of published third-party research, are approximate, and change constantly. Verify current figures with your broker before acting on them.