Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock Forecast and Price Target (2026)

The average target of $7.57 sits well above the $5.70 price, +32.8%. The median is $7.90, and where the two differ the median is the steadier read, because one unusually high or low target cannot drag it.

The published targets span $6.10 to $9.00. That gap is 38% of the average target, which counts as moderate disagreement. A spread like this is fairly typical: enough agreement that the average means something, enough disagreement that it should not be treated as precise.

The useful move is to read the high target as one bull scenario and the low target as one bear scenario, then ask which set of assumptions you find more plausible. Both cases are worked through on the UGP is it a buy page.

In the last six months there have been 4 raises and 2 cuts among these actions. The direction of revisions is often more telling than the level, because it shows which way informed opinion is moving.

Of the analysts with a published rating, 5 say buy, 3 say hold, and 0 say sell, so 63% carry a buy. That buy share has fallen over the last three months, so sentiment is drifting more negative.

The distribution says more than the label. Sell ratings are rare across the entire market for structural reasons, so a stock with no sell ratings is unremarkable, while even a handful of them is worth understanding.

• It is a 12-month model output. An analyst picks assumptions for revenue, margin, and a multiple, and the target falls out of the arithmetic. Change one assumption and the target moves a lot.
• The distribution is skewed. Sell-side coverage carries far more buy ratings than sell ratings across the whole market, so the average is not a balanced vote.
• Targets follow price as often as they lead it. Revisions frequently arrive after a move, not before, which is why a rising target is weak evidence on its own.
• Nobody is scored on it. There is no cost to a target that never gets close, so treat accuracy as unverified unless you check the firm's record yourself.

For the fiscal year ending Dec 2026, the 15 analysts publishing estimates on UGP expect earnings of $0.89 per share (+249% on the year before) and revenue of 162.1 billion BRL (+14%).

Estimates are the most widely published forecast there is: many more analysts model a company's earnings than publish a price target on it. They are also revised constantly, and the direction of those revisions into a report is often more informative than the level. Ultrapar Participacoes next reports on November 11, 2026, which is when these figures get tested against actual results.

Not a published one. Analyst price targets run to about twelve months, occasionally two years, and the firms covering UGP do not put out a 2030 number. Anything presenting one is extrapolating a growth rate of its own, and a figure produced that way tells you about the assumption chosen, not about the company.

The furthest-out consensus that exists is for the fiscal year ending Dec 2027: analysts expect earnings of $0.64 per share, -28% on the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 estimate of $0.89. Beyond that, nobody publishes estimates, so any later number is an extrapolation.

On the figures we hold as of November 2026, UGP trades at about 9.2 times trailing earnings and 8.9 times forward earnings. A forward multiple below the trailing one means the market expects earnings to grow, and the size of that gap is roughly how much growth is already in the price.

For a ten-year question, that frame is more useful. A share price is the market’s estimate of future cash flows discounted to today, so the multiple is already a statement about growth. The long-horizon question is whether Ultrapar Participacoes can deliver what is priced in, and what would have to change for that to break. Both are answerable from the drivers and risks below. A number for 2030 is not.

In short: the drivers cited most often are Ipiranga margin per litre, not volume, Ultragaz as the steady cash line, Terminal and corridor capacity coming online. The risk cited most often against it is brazilian fuel distribution competes against a persistent informal segment that evades ICMS fuel taxes and undercuts compliant distributors on price, so enforcement policy is a direct input to Ipiranga's margin rather than a background issue.

Both sides are worked through properly, with the high and low targets used as the bull and bear anchors, on the UGP is it a buy page.