Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Stock Price & How to Invest

Advanced Drainage Systems, based in Hilliard, Ohio, makes high density polyethylene and polypropylene pipe along with the fittings, catch basins, chambers and water quality structures that go around it. The business splits into two halves. Stormwater, about 78% of fiscal 2026 sales, moves rainwater off parking lots, highways, subdivisions and farmland. On-site wastewater, roughly 22%, is the Infiltrator business: leach field chambers, plastic septic tanks and advanced treatment systems for homes that will never connect to a municipal sewer. ADS feeds much of this from its own recycling operation, buying post-consumer and post-industrial plastic rather than virgin resin, with Infiltrator alone taking in roughly 75,000 tons a year. In February 2026 the company paid about $1.0 billion in cash for NDS, the residential drainage, access box and irrigation business of NORMA Group. One convention to keep straight: ADS runs on a fiscal year ending March 31, so fiscal 2026 covers the year through March 2026 and fiscal 2027 runs through March 2027.

Fiscal 2026 closed with net sales of ~$3.05 billion, up about 5%, and adjusted EBITDA of ~$963 million at a 31.6% margin, which is a rare number for anything sold into construction. The June 2026 quarter (fiscal first quarter 2027, reported August 6) was the first billion dollar quarter in company history, up 20.6% with organic growth of 9.2% and about $95 million contributed by NDS. Management guided fiscal 2027 to $3.35 billion to $3.55 billion of sales and $1.00 billion to $1.05 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and has set a 2030 marker above $4 billion in revenue with margins above 30%. Cash generation funds an aggressive buyback: ~$228.5 million of stock repurchased in the June quarter with ~$822.5 million left on the authorization, next to a small ~$0.20 quarterly dividend. Trailing twelve month revenue is ~$3.22 billion against a ~$10.7 billion market cap, so the shares change hands near 24 times trailing earnings of ~$5.88.

The end markets are cyclical even if the share gains are not: non-residential construction is the largest single exposure, residential drives Infiltrator through new single family starts in unsewered areas, and agricultural drainage tracks farm income, which has been soft. Resin is both an input and a competitive variable, and a sustained fall in virgin polyethylene prices would compress the recycled feedstock advantage while inviting price competition in pipe. Seasonality is severe, with the June and September quarters carrying the year and the March quarter much weaker, so one wet quarter can distort the trend line. The NDS deal added roughly $1 billion of cash outflow and real integration work at the same time the company is spending ~$200 million on the Cordele plant expansion and automation at Infiltrator. A multiple near 24 times earnings leaves little slack if organic volumes stall, and the 2015 accounting restatement, which drew an SEC settlement in 2018, is a reminder that the reporting history is not spotless, though the related shareholder suit was dismissed with prejudice and the dismissal was upheld on appeal.

12 analysts publish price targets on WMS, averaging $183.92 against a $141.44 price as of August 2026, or +30.0%. The published targets run from $165.00 to $207.00, a narrow spread, and the ratings split 12 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 4 raises and 6 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full WMS forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Material conversion, not construction growth. The volume story does not require more building. The most optimistic published target, $207.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. The end markets are cyclical even if the share gains are not: non-residential construction is the largest single exposure, residential drives Infiltrator through new single family starts in unsewered areas, and agricultural drainage tracks farm income, which has been soft. The most pessimistic target, $165.00, is roughly what WMS is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on WMS, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$3.22B
• Adjusted EBITDA (fiscal 2026, year ended March 31): ~$963M, a 31.6% margin
• Fiscal 2027 guidance: ~$3.35B to $3.55B sales, ~$1.00B to $1.05B adjusted EBITDA
• P/E (TTM): ~24x on ~$5.88 EPS, ~22x forward
• Market cap: ~$10.7B at ~$141 a share
• Capital returns: ~$228.5M repurchased in the June 2026 quarter, ~$0.20 quarterly dividend

The multiple expanded as the mix shifted toward Infiltrator and Allied products, with the market paying for durable margin rather than construction volume. Fiscal 2027 guidance implies 10% to 16% sales growth, though a meaningful slice of that is the first full year of NDS rather than organic demand. Free cash flow of ~$203 million in the June quarter funded a buyback an order of magnitude larger than the dividend, which is how ADS has chosen to return cash.

If you want WMS exposure as part of a larger bundle rather than directly, these ETFs hold it meaningfully. Weights are approximate and refresh quarterly.

Other names that sit close to WMS: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get WMS exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it (XHB, CGW), which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so WMS sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where WMS fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

WMS pairs an unusually durable share-gain story with an ordinary construction cycle, and the current multiple leans on the first.

Whether WMS is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is WMS a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the WMS stock forecast.

For income investors, whether WMS pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does WMS pay a dividend? And to weigh WMS against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: WMS vs CRH and WMS vs WTS.