YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Stock Price & How to Invest

YPF Sociedad Anonima is Argentina's integrated oil and gas company: it explores and produces crude and natural gas, runs the country's largest refining system, and sells fuel through a nationwide service station network under the YPF brand. The Argentine state holds 51% of the equity, the remainder trades publicly, and the ADRs have been listed on the NYSE since the 1990s. Over the past three years the company has been reshaping itself around unconventional assets, selling or handing back dozens of mature conventional blocks (the Andes divestment program) and pushing capital into Vaca Muerta, where lifting costs in its core shale hub run near $4 per barrel of oil equivalent against roughly $8.8 consolidated. It also holds stakes in midstream and export infrastructure, including the VMOS crude pipeline to an Atlantic terminal, and has signed partnerships with Eni and Shell around a floating LNG project aimed at monetizing Argentine gas for export.

The financial picture in mid-2026 is the strongest in the company's modern history on an operating basis. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached roughly $2.8 billion, an all-time record, with net income near $1.2 billion, shale oil output averaging about 213,000 barrels a day (up roughly 47% year over year), record refinery throughput, and net leverage down to about 1.09x, the lowest in eleven years. Set against that: YPF still reports in a country with capital controls, a history of fuel price intervention, and a government that owns control of the company, so the multiple the market pays has stayed low relative to comparable shale producers elsewhere. The long-running Petersen and Eton Park expropriation litigation, which had produced a $16.1 billion judgment against Argentina, was reversed by the Second Circuit in March 2026, removing an overhang that had shadowed the shares for years.

Argentine sovereign and policy risk sits above everything else: the state owns 51%, so board composition, fuel pricing, export permits, and currency access are all subject to the politics of the day, and past administrations have intervened in domestic prices in ways that cut refining margins. Capital and currency controls can limit how freely cash moves out of the country, which is one reason the ADRs trade at a discount to shale peers listed elsewhere. The business is also a price taker on Brent, and a sustained oil downturn would hit a company spending $5.5 billion to $5.8 billion of capex in 2026. Execution risk is real on VMOS and the LNG projects, both of which require partners, financing, and infrastructure delivered on schedule before the export thesis pays. Finally, while the Second Circuit reversed the $16.1 billion Petersen judgment against Argentina in March 2026, related litigation and further appellate steps have not fully run their course, and headlines in that case have historically moved the stock.

13 analysts publish price targets on YPF, averaging $58.60 against a $50.94 price as of August 2026, or +15.0%. The published targets run from $48.00 to $78.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 10 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 2 raises and 0 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full YPF forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on YPF Sociedad Anonima. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Vaca Muerta volume growth. Shale oil production averaged roughly 213,000 barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026 and management targets about 250,000 by year end, with 77% of the quarter's $1.34 billion of capex directed at unconventional activity. The most optimistic published target, $78.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Argentine sovereign and policy risk sits above everything else: the state owns 51%, so board composition, fuel pricing, export permits, and currency access are all subject to the politics of the day, and past administrations have intervened in domestic prices in ways that cut refining margins. The most pessimistic target, $48.00, is roughly what YPF is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on YPF, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see YPF Sociedad Anonima's investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$19 billion in US dollars (screeners that show Argentine peso figures will look wildly different)
• Adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026): ~$2.8 billion, an all-time quarterly record, at ~43% of revenue
• Net income (Q2 2026): ~$1.2 billion, the second highest quarter on record
• Market cap: ~$21 billion (~391 million ADRs, ADR price recently near $50)
• Net debt / adjusted EBITDA: ~1.09x, the lowest leverage in about eleven years
• 2026 capex guidance: ~$5.5 billion to $5.8 billion, weighted to Vaca Muerta and midstream

On annualized recent EBITDA the enterprise value works out to roughly four times, a level well below US shale independents of similar growth, and the gap is the market's price for Argentine country risk rather than a judgment on the wells. Reported earnings per ADR are noisy because 2025 carried large impairments from the conventional asset exits, so trailing price to earnings ratios on screeners can be misleading in either direction. YPF pays no dividend on the ADRs at present, with cash directed to capex and debt reduction.

Other names that sit close to YPF: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get YPF exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so YPF sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where YPF fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

YPF is a shale growth story wrapped in Argentine sovereign and political risk, so the operating numbers and the country risk have to be judged together rather than separately.

Whether YPF is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is YPF a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the YPF stock forecast.

For income investors, whether YPF pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does YPF pay a dividend? And to weigh YPF against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: YPF vs VIST and YPF vs SHEL.