AAON vs TT: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: AAON is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. AAON and TT share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined AAON and TT exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

AAON, Inc. engineers and manufactures premium commercial and industrial HVAC equipment, including semi-custom and custom rooftop units, air handlers, energy recovery units, condensing units, water-source heat pumps, and controls. Its 2021 acquisition of BASX and expansion into cleanroom systems and data center thermal management turned a niche rooftop-unit specialist into a supplier of liquid-cooling solutions for AI and cloud data centers, sold under the BASX brand alongside the flagship AAON-branded product line.

Full AAON guide

Trane Technologies is an Ireland-domiciled, US-listed maker of heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) and refrigeration systems, operating mainly through the Trane (commercial and residential HVAC) and Thermo King (transport refrigeration) brands. Roughly two-thirds of its business is commercial HVAC, where it sells energy-efficient chillers, rooftop units, controls, and a growing base of recurring service and aftermarket contracts. The company positions itself around sustainability and building decarbonization, and it has expanded aggressively into data-center cooling through acquisitions such as Stellar Energy.

Full TT guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• AAON drivers: Data center liquid cooling (BASX); Record backlog and raised guidance.
• TT drivers: Data-center cooling demand; Commercial HVAC and backlog.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Valuation remains a central risk even after the multiple fell: AAON trades near 39x trailing earnings, and the stock's roughly 29% drop over three months to mid-October 2026, despite a strong Q2, shows how sharply sentiment can compress the price. For TT, the most cited risk is valuation: TT trades at a premium price-to-earnings multiple well above the broader industrial group and its own historical average, so any growth stumble could compress the multiple.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick AAON if you believe its drivers more; TT if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the AAON and TT guides.

AAON. The multiple has come down hard: trailing P/E near 39x is well below the 90x-plus of mid-2026, because earnings rose sharply while the share price fell. The forward multiple near 21x assumes 2027 EPS of about $3.57, so the data center cooling ramp still has to deliver. Gross margin near 25-26% reflects ongoing capacity ramp costs, and the four covering analysts' mean target near $135 sits far above the current price.

TT. At about $461 a share, Trane trades near 34 times trailing EPS and about 26 times the roughly $17.66 analysts expect for 2027, still well above the typical industrial multiple. Consensus calls for 2026 revenue of about $23.8 billion (up roughly 11%) and EPS of about $15.28, up about 17%. Third-quarter results are due October 29, 2026, with consensus near $4.73 of EPS on about $6.49 billion of revenue.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): AAON shows revenue (ttm) ~$1.93B, q2 2026 revenue ~$627M (+~101% YoY), q2 2026 eps ~$0.69 vs ~$0.49 consensus; net income ~$57M, margins (ttm) gross ~25.6%, operating ~11%, net ~8%; TT shows revenue (ttm) ~$22.2 billion, revenue growth (q2 2026, yoy) ~11%, operating / net margin ~19% / ~13%, net income (ttm) ~$3.0 billion (EPS ~$13.42).

AAON and TT are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined AAON and TT exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.