AGM vs FNMA: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. AGM and FNMA share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined AGM and FNMA exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (Farmer Mac) is a stockholder-owned, federally chartered corporation created under the Agricultural Credit Act to increase the flow of credit to American agriculture and rural infrastructure. It operates a secondary market across four lines of business (Farm and Ranch, USDA Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit), buying, guaranteeing, and securitizing loans that regional banks and Farm Credit System institutions originate. Its GSE status lets it fund itself at yields only a few basis points over Treasuries, a structural advantage over private lenders that underpins its net interest spread.

Full AGM guide

Fannie Mae, formally the Federal National Mortgage Association, is a government-sponsored enterprise that sits at the center of the US housing finance system. It buys mortgages from lenders, packages them into mortgage-backed securities, and guarantees timely payment of principal and interest to investors, which keeps mortgage credit flowing and supports the 30-year fixed-rate loan. Fannie Mae does not originate loans directly; it makes most of its money from guaranty fees charged for taking on the credit risk of the loans it backs, earning a recurring stream across a guaranty book of business of roughly $4 trillion. The company reported full-year 2025 net income of about $14.4 billion and ended 2025 with net worth of about $109 billion, its fourteenth straight profitable year.

Full FNMA guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• AGM drivers: GSE funding advantage; Volume growth and diversification.
• FNMA drivers: Recap-and-release thesis; Durable, fee-based core business.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Farmer Mac is a narrow single-sector lender, so its credit quality is directly tied to farm income, commodity prices, and farmland values, all of which can deteriorate sharply in downturns. For FNMA, fNMA common is highly speculative and the risks are unusually severe.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick AGM if you believe its drivers more; FNMA if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the AGM and FNMA guides.

AGM. Farmer Mac trades at about 11 times trailing earnings and under 9 times the 2027 estimate of about $23 per share, low for a GSE with double-digit volume growth and a wide funding moat. Analysts expect 2026 EPS of about $20.70 on revenue near $481 million. The dividend yields about 3.1% with a payout near a third of earnings, and the small market cap (about $2.2 billion) and single-sector concentration keep it a niche financial.

FNMA. FNMA common is unusual to value with normal metrics. Even though Fannie Mae earns billions and holds more than $100 billion of net worth, almost none of that currently accrues to common holders: Treasury sits ahead of them with senior preferred stock whose liquidation preference exceeds $200 billion, and it holds warrants for about 79.9% of the common. Data services that report earnings to common show only about $0.04 of trailing EPS, which is why the quoted P/E near 90x means little. The roughly $4.2 billion market cap, down from about $8 billion earlier in 2026, is a market-implied probability that the company exits conservatorship on terms that leave value for the common; the 67% drop this year says the market now prices that outcome as much less likely. Q3 2026 results are due October 28.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): AGM shows revenue (ttm) ~$409M; Q2 2026 ~$125M, up ~25% YoY, q2 2026 core eps ~$5.40 vs ~$4.87 expected, net income (ttm) ~$200M, outstanding business volume ~$37.2B (June 30, 2026); FNMA shows revenue (ttm, per yahoo finance) ~$27.8 billion, up ~9% YoY in Q2 2026, net income (fy2025) ~$14.4 billion, net income (q1 2026) ~$3.7 billion, net worth ~$109B (end 2025); ~$112.7B (Q1 2026).

AGM and FNMA are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined AGM and FNMA exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.