CF vs NTR: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: CF is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. CF and NTR share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined CF and NTR exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

CF Industries Holdings makes nitrogen products, primarily anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solution, along with ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid. It is the world's largest producer of ammonia and North America's largest pure-play nitrogen manufacturer, running a fleet of gas-fed plants across the US, Canada, and the UK. Natural gas is its main feedstock, so its cost position is structurally advantaged when North American gas is cheap relative to European and Asian producers.

Full CF guide

Nutrien is a Canadian-headquartered agricultural giant formed from the 2018 merger of Potash Corp and Agrium, and it reports in U.S. dollars. The company runs four segments: Retail (Nutrien Ag Solutions), which distributes crop nutrients, crop protection, seed and services to farmers through a large network of stores across North America, South America and Australia, plus three upstream segments (Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate) that mine and manufacture the fertilizers themselves. Nutrien is the largest potash producer in the world by capacity and one of the largest nitrogen producers, so its upstream results move directly with global fertilizer benchmarks, while Retail earns more stable margins from proprietary products and services.

Full NTR guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• CF drivers: Tight global nitrogen supply and pricing; Low-cost North American natural gas feedstock.
• NTR drivers: Potash pricing and record volumes; Nitrogen leverage to natural gas.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: CF's earnings are highly cyclical and tied to volatile nitrogen prices, which can fall sharply when global supply loosens or demand softens. For NTR, the dominant risk is commodity price cyclicality: potash, nitrogen and phosphate prices can fall sharply, and because upstream margins are highly operationally geared, consolidated earnings can drop far faster than revenue.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick CF if you believe its drivers more; NTR if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the CF and NTR guides.

CF. CF posted a strong Q1 2026, with net sales up about 19% to roughly $1.99 billion and net earnings near $615 million on tight global nitrogen supply and higher selling prices across all segments. The quarter included one-off items such as a litigation settlement gain and insurance recoveries. The stock trades at a low double-digit forward earnings multiple typical of a cyclical commodity producer, reflecting the market's expectation that peak-cycle earnings are not permanent.

NTR. As of July 2026 NTR trades near $66 for a market cap of roughly $32 billion, at a trailing P/E around 16 and a forward P/E near 15.5, modest multiples typical of a cyclical commodity producer. Q1 2026 revenue was ~$6.0 billion (up ~19% year over year) with adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.11 billion, and the business is seasonal, with the spring planting quarter usually the strongest. Because so much of the profit is commodity-driven, valuation multiples on trailing earnings can look cheap near cycle peaks and expensive near troughs, so context on where fertilizer prices sit matters more than the headline P/E.

Headline figures (approximate, MAY 2026): CF shows revenue (ttm) ~$6.4B, q1 2026 net sales ~$1.99B, q1 2026 net earnings ~$615M, q1 2026 adjusted ebitda ~$983M; NTR shows share price ~$66, market cap ~$32 billion, revenue (ttm) ~$28 billion, fy2025 net earnings ~$2.3 billion.

CF and NTR are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined CF and NTR exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.