CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Price & How to Invest
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
CF Industries (NYSE: CF) is North America's largest pure-play nitrogen producer, so investing in it is a bet on tight global nitrogen supply, cheap US natural gas feedstock, and disciplined cash returns rather than on a diversified fertilizer business. It trades like a cyclical commodity name whose earnings swing with ammonia, urea, and UAN prices.
CF stock price
As of 2026-08-18, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) last closed at $119.72, up 42.5% over the past year. Over the past 52 weeks it has traded between $76.09 and $137.60.
Prices are daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. For the live quote, check your broker or CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s investor relations page. Walnut is informational, not investment advice.
What does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) do?
CF Industries Holdings makes nitrogen products, primarily anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solution, along with ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid. It is the world's largest producer of ammonia and North America's largest pure-play nitrogen manufacturer, running a fleet of gas-fed plants across the US, Canada, and the UK. Natural gas is its main feedstock, so its cost position is structurally advantaged when North American gas is cheap relative to European and Asian producers.
The investment picture is that of a cyclical commodity producer with strong current economics. In Q1 2026, CF reported net earnings of roughly $615 million and adjusted EBITDA near $983 million as tight global nitrogen supply, worsened by Middle East disruptions, pushed selling prices higher across every segment. Management pairs heavy share buybacks and a long-running dividend with a large growth bet: the roughly $3.7 billion Blue Point low-carbon ammonia project in Louisiana (CF owns 40%, alongside JERA and Mitsui), targeting production around 2029. Earnings are volatile by nature, so the stock behaves more like a swing on nitrogen prices than a steady compounder.
What's driving CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)?
1. Tight global nitrogen supply and pricing
Nitrogen prices have been elevated by constrained global supply, sanctions and conflict-driven disruptions to Middle East and other export flows, and firm agricultural demand. When ammonia, urea, and UAN prices stay high, CF's near-full utilization plants convert that directly into cash. Pricing is the single biggest swing factor for reported earnings.
2. Low-cost North American natural gas feedstock
CF's plants run largely on cheap US and Canadian natural gas, giving it a wide margin advantage over European producers exposed to costlier gas. This spread lets CF compete aggressively into the Atlantic Basin and keeps it near the low end of the global cost curve. The advantage widens when US gas is cheap relative to international benchmarks.
3. Capital returns and the Blue Point growth project
CF has paid a quarterly dividend for over two decades and returns large amounts of cash through buybacks that shrink the share count. Alongside returns, it is building the roughly $3.7 billion Blue Point low-carbon ammonia complex in Louisiana as a 40% owner with JERA and Mitsui. That project positions CF for potential clean-ammonia and export demand later in the decade.
4. Clean and low-carbon ammonia optionality
CF is investing in carbon capture and low-carbon ammonia across its network, aiming to serve emerging demand for cleaner fuels and feedstocks. This is a longer-dated theme that could open new end markets beyond traditional fertilizer. The payoff depends on policy support and whether clean-ammonia demand materializes at scale.
What are the risks to CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)?
CF's earnings are highly cyclical and tied to volatile nitrogen prices, which can fall sharply when global supply loosens or demand softens. Natural gas cost spikes, especially any narrowing of the US-to-international gas spread, would compress the margin advantage that underpins the thesis. The business is capital intensive and exposed to plant outages, weather-driven farm demand swings, and large multi-year projects like Blue Point that carry execution and cost-overrun risk. US fertilizer producers, CF among them, have faced antitrust scrutiny and price-fixing litigation, adding legal and headline risk. Being a pure-play nitrogen producer also means little diversification if that single commodity turns down.
What is the CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) forecast?
19 analysts publish price targets on CF, averaging $125.25 against a $125.19 price as of August 2026, or +0.0%. The published targets run from $100.00 to $195.72, a wide spread, and the ratings split 5 buy, 13 hold, 3 sell. Over the last six months there have been 10 raises and 2 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.
Read the full CF forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.
Is CF a buy or a sell?
We give no verdict on CF Industries Holdings, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.
The case for buying. Tight global nitrogen supply and pricing. Nitrogen prices have been elevated by constrained global supply, sanctions and conflict-driven disruptions to Middle East and other export flows, and firm agricultural demand. The most optimistic published target, $195.72, assumes this works close to its best case.
The case against. CF's earnings are highly cyclical and tied to volatile nitrogen prices, which can fall sharply when global supply loosens or demand softens. The most pessimistic target, $100.00, is roughly what CF is worth if this bites instead.
Read the full bull and bear case on CF, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
How is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) valued? (approximate, MAY 2026)
A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.
- Revenue (TTM): ~$6.4B
- Q1 2026 net sales: ~$1.99B
- Q1 2026 net earnings: ~$615M
- Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA: ~$983M
- Free cash flow (TTM): ~$1.65B
- Forward P/E: ~10-11x
CF posted a strong Q1 2026, with net sales up about 19% to roughly $1.99 billion and net earnings near $615 million on tight global nitrogen supply and higher selling prices across all segments. The quarter included one-off items such as a litigation settlement gain and insurance recoveries. The stock trades at a low double-digit forward earnings multiple typical of a cyclical commodity producer, reflecting the market's expectation that peak-cycle earnings are not permanent.
Which ETFs hold CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)?
If you want CF exposure as part of a larger bundle rather than directly, these ETFs hold it meaningfully. Weights are approximate and refresh quarterly.
| ETF | Name | % in CF | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOO | VanEck Agribusiness ETF | 4.25% | 0.56% |
Who competes with CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)?
Diversified fertilizer majors
Nutrien and Mosaic are far larger and more diversified, spanning nitrogen, potash, and phosphate plus retail distribution. They compete with CF in nitrogen but spread their exposure across multiple nutrients, whereas CF is a pure nitrogen play.
Global nitrogen producers
Yara International and Koch Fertilizer are major nitrogen producers competing in the same ammonia, urea, and UAN markets. Nutrien, CF, Koch, and Yara together control the bulk of North American nitrogen capacity, and cost position (driven largely by natural gas) is the key competitive lever among them.
Pure-play nitrogen peers
CVR Partners is a smaller pure-play nitrogen producer that, like CF, is fully levered to nitrogen prices and feedstock costs. It offers a similar but far smaller-scale exposure to the same commodity cycle.
What stocks are similar to CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)?
Other names that sit close to CF: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.
How to invest in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
There are three common ways to get CF exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it (MOO), which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so CF sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.
Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where CF fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.
New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.
The bottom line on CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
CF is a low-cost, cash-generative nitrogen producer whose fortunes rise and fall with commodity nitrogen prices and the US-to-global natural gas spread.
More on CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Whether CF is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is CF a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the CF stock forecast.
For income investors, whether CF pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does CF pay a dividend? And to weigh CF against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: CF vs NTR and CF vs UAN.
Wondering how CF fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how CF fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What does CF Industries do?
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CF Industries produces nitrogen products, mainly anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), plus ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid. It is the world's largest ammonia producer and North America's largest pure-play nitrogen manufacturer, using natural gas as its primary feedstock.
Is CF Industries a good investment?
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That depends on your goals and risk tolerance, and Walnut is not an investment adviser. CF is a cyclical commodity producer whose earnings swing with nitrogen prices and natural gas costs, so it can look cheap at peak earnings and expensive when the cycle turns. Consider how much commodity volatility fits your portfolio.
How does CF Industries make money?
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It makes money by producing nitrogen fertilizers and industrial ammonia at low-cost, gas-fed plants and selling them at prevailing market prices. Its profit is essentially the spread between nitrogen product prices and its natural gas feedstock cost, multiplied by high plant utilization.
Why is CF Industries stock so volatile?
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CF's revenue is tied to commodity nitrogen prices (ammonia, urea, UAN) and to natural gas costs, both of which move sharply with global supply, weather, energy markets, and geopolitics. Because it is a pure-play nitrogen producer, it has little to cushion a downturn in that single commodity.
Does CF Industries pay a dividend?
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Yes. CF has paid a quarterly dividend for over two decades and has raised it meaningfully in recent years, though the yield is modest. It also returns substantial cash through share buybacks that reduce the share count over time.
What is CF Industries' Blue Point project?
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Blue Point is a roughly $3.7 billion low-carbon ammonia complex being built in Ascension Parish, Louisiana, targeting production around 2029. CF owns about 40% alongside Japan's JERA and Mitsui, and it is positioned to be one of the world's largest low-carbon ammonia facilities.
Who are CF Industries' main competitors?
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Its main competitors include diversified fertilizer majors Nutrien and Mosaic, global nitrogen producers Yara International and Koch Fertilizer, and smaller pure-play nitrogen peers like CVR Partners. Cost position, driven largely by natural gas, is the key competitive factor in nitrogen.
How does natural gas affect CF Industries?
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Natural gas is CF's main feedstock, so cheap North American gas is a core competitive advantage that lets it undercut higher-cost European producers. If US gas prices rise or the gap to international gas narrows, CF's margins compress, making gas costs one of the biggest drivers of its profitability.
Guides that feature CF
CF is one of the names covered in these guides. Each one puts the stock next to its peers so you can see where it fits rather than judging it alone.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Financial figures on this page are approximations; always verify current numbers with CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker before making investment decisions.