CGAU vs IAG: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: IAG is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. CGAU and IAG share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined CGAU and IAG exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Centerra Gold is a Canada-based mid-tier mining company that produces gold, copper, and molybdenum. Its gold and copper output comes mainly from two operating mines: the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine in British Columbia, Canada, and the Oksut gold mine in Turkey. Alongside these, Centerra owns a Molybdenum Business Unit in the United States and Canada, which includes the Langeloth processing facility and the Thompson Creek mine that is being restarted, plus the Kemess gold-copper development project in British Columbia. Because gold, copper, and molybdenum are globally priced commodities, Centerra is largely a price-taker: its revenue tracks metal prices while a large share of its mining costs are relatively fixed, which creates operating leverage that can push profits up faster than the gold price in a strong market and down faster in a weak one.

Full CGAU guide

IAMGOLD Corporation (NYSE: IAG, TSX: IMG) mines gold at three sites and reports in U.S. dollars. Cote Gold in northern Ontario is the growth asset, operated by IAMGOLD in a 70/30 partnership with Sumitomo Metal Mining, and is now one of the largest gold mines in production in Canada. Westwood in Quebec is a smaller, higher-cost underground operation held at 100%. Essakane in Burkina Faso is the cash engine, an open-pit mine in which IAMGOLD's interest was reduced from 90% to 85% in June 2025 when the state took a larger share. The Nelligan Mining Complex in Quebec is the main exploration project and takes roughly ~$24 million of the ~$54 million 2026 exploration budget. The company employs about ~3,800 people.

Full IAG guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• CGAU drivers: Leverage to a strong gold and copper market; Strong balance sheet and shareholder returns.
• IAG drivers: Cote Gold throughput and the Q4 technical report; Gold price leverage, partly clawed back by royalties.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The dominant risk is metal prices, especially gold: as a commodity producer, Centerra's profits rise and fall with the market, and its operating leverage magnifies moves in both directions. For IAG, roughly half of attributable production comes from Essakane in Burkina Faso, where the company states plainly that security incidents continue and that it incurs additional cost moving people, contractors and supplies to site.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick CGAU if you believe its drivers more; IAG if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the CGAU and IAG guides.

CGAU. At $22.15 on October 16, 2026, Centerra trades near 7 times trailing earnings but about 11.7 times forward estimates, because trailing net income includes unusually large late-2025 quarters and consensus expects 2027 EPS of about $1.89. Roughly 2 times book value and 4.5 times EV/EBITDA still look modest for a near debt-free producer, but those multiples rest on peak-cycle gold and copper margins and on capital spending that held trailing free cash flow close to zero. The October 29 third-quarter report will show how much of the price strength is reaching cash flow while Thompson Creek, Goldfield and Kemess absorb capital.

IAG. As of October 16, 2026 IAG trades at ~9.1x trailing and ~7.6x forward earnings and ~5x EV/EBITDA. The multiple looks undemanding, but it is computed on earnings produced at a realized gold price of ~$4,631 per ounce in the first half, well above the ~$4,000 assumption the company used to set its own cost and royalty guidance. Adjusted EBITDA of ~$507.3 million in the quarter and mine-site free cash flow of ~$368.9 million are what retired the credit facility drawing and funded the buyback. Reported all-in sustaining cost of ~$2,271 per ounce is the number to track quarter to quarter, since it includes sustaining capital and royalties and therefore captures the full cost of keeping the ounces coming, unlike cash cost. Consensus for the September quarter, reported November 5, is ~$0.43 adjusted EPS on ~$880 million of revenue.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): CGAU shows revenue (ttm) ~$1.72B; Q2 2026 ~$443M, up ~54% year over year, net earnings ~$637M TTM (includes large 2025 quarters); Q2 2026 ~$72M, q2 2026 adjusted eps ~$0.39 vs ~$0.38 consensus, margins (ttm) Gross ~44%, operating ~27%; IAG shows revenue (ttm) ~$3.68 billion, reported in U.S. dollars, net income (ttm) ~$1.16 billion, a ~31% net margin, q2 2026 revenue ~$856.9 million, up ~47% year over year, all-in sustaining cost (q2 2026, incl. royalties) ~$2,271 per ounce sold, vs 2026 guidance of ~$2,000 to ~$2,150.

CGAU and IAG are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined CGAU and IAG exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.