CLF vs RIO: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: RIO is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. CLF and RIO share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined CLF and RIO exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Cleveland-Cliffs is North America's largest flat-rolled steel producer and the largest supplier of automotive-grade steel in the United States. It is vertically integrated, owning iron ore mines and pellet operations and converting raw materials and scrap through primary steelmaking into downstream finishing, stamping, tooling, and tubing. It makes money by selling steel to automakers, service centers, infrastructure, appliance, and other industrial customers; roughly a third of output goes to the automotive sector, and Q1 2026 steelmaking revenue included ~$1.4 billion (~29%) of direct automotive sales. The company employs roughly ~25,000 people across mining, steel, and manufacturing operations in the U.S. and Canada.

Full CLF guide

Rio Tinto is a global mining group that digs, processes, and ships the raw materials behind steel, power grids, and batteries. Iron ore from its Pilbara operations in Western Australia is still the profit engine, generating the majority of earnings, while the company also produces aluminum and bauxite, copper (including from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia), and, after its 2025 acquisition of Arcadium, lithium. Its two marquee growth projects are the giant Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea, which made its first shipment in late 2025, and a lithium business it aims to scale toward 200,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2028. RIO shares are American Depositary Receipts representing the London-listed Rio Tinto plc, so U.S. investors get the same underlying economics with dollar-denominated trading.

Full RIO guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• CLF drivers: U.S.-only footprint plus tariff tailwind; Integration and scale.
• RIO drivers: Iron ore scale plus Simandou; Copper growth for electrification.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Cleveland-Cliffs is one of the more cyclical and leveraged names in the steel sector. For RIO, rio's fortunes are tightly linked to iron ore prices, which hinge on Chinese steel demand and property construction, so a slowdown there hits earnings and the dividend directly.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick CLF if you believe its drivers more; RIO if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the CLF and RIO guides.

CLF. Cliffs is a deeply cyclical steelmaker, so trailing earnings reflect a trough rather than a steady run rate, and a trailing P/E is not meaningful while the company posts losses. On forward estimates (about $0.95 of 2027 EPS) the stock trades near 13 times earnings and about 0.37 times sales, and the mean analyst target of about $12.60 sits close to the $12.46 close, with a consensus rating of hold. Investors typically watch EV/EBITDA, leverage, and whether the Q3 2026 report on October 19 delivers the guided swing to profit.

RIO. As of October 16, 2026, the RIO ADR trades near 12x trailing and 11x forward earnings and about 7x EBITDA, a discount that reflects commodity-cycle risk more than recent results, which have improved since 2025. The trailing dividend of about $4.65 per ADR yields roughly 5% on a ~54% payout. Consensus sees EPS of ~$8.41 in 2026 and roughly flat at ~$8.51 in 2027, so the multiple depends on iron ore and copper prices holding.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): CLF shows revenue (ttm) ~$19.2 billion, revenue growth (q2 2026, yoy) ~6%, q2 2026 net loss ~$145 million (EPS -$0.20 vs -$0.22 est.), net income (ttm) ~-$866 million; RIO shows revenue (ttm) ~$61.8B (latest reported growth ~15.5% YoY), net income (ttm) ~$12.1B (~20% margin), eps (trailing / 2026 est.) ~$7.38 / ~$8.41 per ADR, p/e (trailing / forward) ~12x / ~11x.

CLF and RIO are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined CLF and RIO exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.