COP vs MPC: How ConocoPhillips and Marathon Petroleum Corporation Compare (2026)

Same yardstick, side by side (as of July 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: MPC is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. COP and MPC share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined COP and MPC exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an exploration and production (E&P) company focused exclusively on the upstream segment of the oil and gas industry. It finds, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from a globally diversified asset base that includes U.S. Lower 48 shale plays (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken), Alaska (including the Willow development project), Canadian oil sands at Surmont, operations in Norway and Qatar, and equity stakes in LNG projects including Australia Pacific LNG and the Port Arthur LNG facility on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The company makes money by selling the hydrocarbons it produces at prevailing market prices, with profitability driven primarily by realized commodity prices, production volumes, and its cost-of-supply discipline. It does not operate refineries or fuel retail networks, giving it a focused capital structure but also direct exposure to commodity price swings.

Full COP guide

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC), headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, is the largest independent downstream energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Refining and Marketing, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks at refineries across the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast and sells gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, and other products through wholesale channels and Marathon-branded and ARCO-branded retail outlets; Midstream, conducted primarily through its publicly traded partnership MPLX, which gathers, processes, transports, and stores crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids across an extensive pipeline, terminal, and storage network; and Renewable Diesel, which processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel for sale to wholesale customers and through long-term supply contracts. The company earns money from crude-to-products refining margins, midstream fee and distribution income from MPLX, and renewable diesel sales and associated regulatory credits.

Full MPC guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• COP drivers: Marathon Oil Integration and Scale; Willow Project and Long-Cycle Growth.
• MPC drivers: Scale Advantage in U.S. Refining; MPLX Midstream Provides a Durable Cash Floor.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: COP's revenues and free cash flow are highly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas prices, and any sustained commodity price decline would directly erode earnings and the company's ability to fund its capital-return targets. For MPC, the primary bear-case risk is crack spread compression: MPC's refining earnings are highly sensitive to the difference between crude oil input costs and refined product prices, and a normalization or decline in that spread (driven by demand softness, rising global refinery capacity coming back online, or a swift resolution of geopolitical tensions) would sharply reduce cash flows and pressure the valuation.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick COP if you believe its drivers more; MPC if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the COP and MPC guides.

COP. COP's trailing P/E of roughly 19x sits approximately 59 percent above its own 10-year median of around 12x and modestly above the oil and gas industry average of roughly 16x, suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful growth from Willow, LNG, and post-Marathon synergies. Free cash flow of roughly $5.85 billion TTM reflects elevated capital expenditures during the current heavy-investment cycle, and management projects a material step-up in free cash flow as long-cycle projects come online toward 2029. The dividend yield near 3.1 percent, combined with active buybacks, provides a tangible total-return component that partially compensates holders during periods of softer commodity prices.

MPC. MPC's trailing earnings multiple of roughly 17x sits modestly above the oil and gas refining industry average but below many broader market benchmarks, a valuation gap that reflects the inherent cyclicality of refining margins and the capital intensity of the business. Full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per diluted share of approximately $10.70 improved from 2024's $9.51 on a per-share basis, aided by ongoing share buybacks that reduced the share count. The strong return on equity of approximately 24% reflects both profitability and the company's leveraged balance sheet.

Headline figures (approximate, June 27, 2026): COP shows revenue (ttm, ~march 2026) ~$60.5 billion, net income (ttm) ~$7.3 billion, eps (ttm, dec 2025) ~$6.34, p/e ratio (ttm) ~19x; MPC shows revenue (fy 2025) ~$132.7 billion, net income (fy 2025) ~$4.0 billion, adjusted eps (fy 2025) ~$10.70 per diluted share, trailing p/e ratio ~17x (TTM, as of early June 2026).

COP and MPC are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined COP and MPC exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.