COP vs OXY: How ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Compare (2026)

Last updated July 2026

Short answer

COP is the larger of the two ($144.00B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (13.13x forward earnings, beta 0.12). OXY is the smaller challenger ($55.73B), priced similarly on forward earnings (14.26x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.

COP vs OXY: the tie-breaker metrics

Same yardstick, side by side (as of July 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

MetricCOPOXYWhat it tells you
Market cap$144.00B$55.73BSize. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove.
Forward P/E13.1314.26Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up.
Trailing P/E20.0376.75Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price.
Beta0.120.15Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through.
Price vs 52-week range65% of range60% of rangeWhere today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why.
Price / book2.231.81How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price.

Before you buy: how COP and OXY affect your concentration

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. COP and OXY share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined COP and OXY exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

What does ConocoPhillips (COP) do?

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an exploration and production (E&P) company focused exclusively on the upstream segment of the oil and gas industry. It finds, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from a globally diversified asset base that includes U.S. Lower 48 shale plays (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken), Alaska (including the Willow development project), Canadian oil sands at Surmont, operations in Norway and Qatar, and equity stakes in LNG projects including Australia Pacific LNG and the Port Arthur LNG facility on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The company makes money by selling the hydrocarbons it produces at prevailing market prices, with profitability driven primarily by realized commodity prices, production volumes, and its cost-of-supply discipline. It does not operate refineries or fuel retail networks, giving it a focused capital structure but also direct exposure to commodity price swings.

Full COP guide

What does Occidental Petroleum (OXY) do?

Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) is a large US-based oil and gas company with three main businesses. Upstream exploration and production is the core: Oxy finds and produces crude oil and natural gas, with a flagship position in the Permian Basin, the most prolific US oil field, plus operations in the Rocky Mountains, the Gulf of Mexico, and internationally. Its chemicals arm, OxyChem, is a major producer of chlor-alkali and PVC-related chemicals. Oxy is also building a carbon-management business through its 1PointFive subsidiary, developing direct air capture (DAC) facilities that pull CO2 from the atmosphere. The company makes most of its money selling oil and gas, so cash flow swings with commodity prices. Oxy is notable for Berkshire Hathaway's large ownership stake and for its 2019 acquisition of Anadarko, which left it heavily indebted. Headquartered in Houston, Texas, Oxy has since prioritized cutting debt and returning cash, while positioning carbon capture as a long-term option.

Full OXY guide

COP vs OXY: how do they differ?

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

  • COP drivers: Marathon Oil Integration and Scale; Willow Project and Long-Cycle Growth.
  • OXY drivers: Permian Basin scale; Debt reduction and capital return.

Which fits which kind of investor

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: COP's revenues and free cash flow are highly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas prices, and any sustained commodity price decline would directly erode earnings and the company's ability to fund its capital-return targets. For OXY, oxy's earnings and cash flow are highly sensitive to oil and gas prices, which are volatile and outside its control.

COP or OXY: which should you pick?

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick COP if you believe its drivers more; OXY if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the COP and OXY guides.

COP vs OXY: the full fundamentals

COP. COP's trailing P/E of roughly 19x sits approximately 59 percent above its own 10-year median of around 12x and modestly above the oil and gas industry average of roughly 16x, suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful growth from Willow, LNG, and post-Marathon synergies. Free cash flow of roughly $5.85 billion TTM reflects elevated capital expenditures during the current heavy-investment cycle, and management projects a material step-up in free cash flow as long-cycle projects come online toward 2029. The dividend yield near 3.1 percent, combined with active buybacks, provides a tangible total-return component that partially compensates holders during periods of softer commodity prices.

OXY. Oxy's valuation is dominated by oil-price sensitivity and balance-sheet repair. Strong free cash flow at favorable commodity prices funds debt reduction and capital return, while the carbon-capture business adds long-dated optionality. The financial profile is that of a leveraged, cyclical Permian producer working to deleverage.

Headline figures (approximate, June 27, 2026): COP shows revenue (ttm, ~march 2026) ~$60.5 billion, net income (ttm) ~$7.3 billion, eps (ttm, dec 2025) ~$6.34, p/e ratio (ttm) ~19x; OXY shows revenue (ttm) ~$27 billion, operating margin ~20%, highly oil-price dependent, production ~1.2+ million barrels of oil equivalent per day, free cash flow strong at mid-cycle oil prices.

The bottom line: COP vs OXY

COP and OXY are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined COP and OXY exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.

Investing in ConocoPhillips with AI

Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how COP fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.

FAQ

What is the difference between COP and OXY?

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ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an exploration and production (E&P) company focused exclusively on the upstream segment of the oil and gas industry. Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) is a large US-based oil and gas company with three main businesses. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.

Is COP or OXY the better stock?

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Neither is universally better. COP is the larger incumbent; OXY is the smaller challenger and looks pricier on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.

Which is cheaper, COP or OXY?

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On forward P/E (as of July 2026), COP trades at 13.13x and OXY at 14.26x, so COP is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.

Should you own both COP and OXY?

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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.

What are the risks of COP vs OXY?

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COP: COP's revenues and free cash flow are highly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas prices, and any sustained commodity price decline would directly erode earnings and the company's ability to fund its capital-return targets. The Willow project and LNG infrastructure carry significant construction and cost execution risk over a multi-year horizon, with capital outlays of roughly $12 billion guided for 2026 alone. Geopolitical disruptions in production regions including Qatar and Norway, along with energy transition policy shifts that suppress long-term hydrocarbon demand, represent structural risks that compound the near-term commodity exposure. At a trailing P/E near 19x, COP trades above its own 10-year median of roughly 12x and above the oil and gas industry average, leaving limited valuation cushion if earnings disappoint. OXY: Oxy's earnings and cash flow are highly sensitive to oil and gas prices, which are volatile and outside its control. The balance sheet still carries meaningful debt and preferred equity (including Berkshire's preferreds) from the Anadarko deal, leaving less flexibility in a downturn. Direct air capture is expensive, unproven at commercial scale, and dependent on policy support and carbon-credit demand, so the carbon business may not pay off as hoped. Regulatory, environmental, and energy-transition pressures could constrain long-term oil demand and raise costs. Capital intensity, depletion of producing wells, and execution risk on large projects add further variability to results.

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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell COP or OXY; figures are approximate and dated (as of July 2026). Verify current data before investing.

    COP vs OXY: How ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Compare (2026), Walnut