ERO vs HBM: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated August 2026
Short answer
HBM is the larger of the two ($10.10B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (12.05x forward earnings, beta 2.25). ERO is the smaller challenger ($3.53B), cheaper on forward earnings (7.06x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
ERO vs HBM: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | ERO | HBM | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $3.53B | $10.10B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 7.06 | 12.05 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 11.66 | 13.96 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 1.59 | 2.25 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 77% of range | 59% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 2.91 | 2.11 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: ERO is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how ERO and HBM affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ERO and HBM share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ERO and HBM exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) do?
Ero Copper Corp. (TSX and NYSE: ERO) was founded in 2016 and runs three operating mines, all in Brazil, from a head office in Vancouver, British Columbia. Two produce copper in concentrate: the Caraiba Operations in Bahia State, whose underground Pilar mine is getting a new external shaft, and the Tucuma Operation in Para State, which declared commercial production on July 1, 2025 and has been ramping throughput since. The third, Xavantina in Mato Grosso State, is a high-grade underground gold mine that also carries a precious metals stream sold to Royal Gold. In the second quarter of 2026 Ero produced 17,315 tonnes of copper in concentrate at a consolidated C1 cash cost of $2.42 per pound, plus 20,553 ounces of gold, of which 8,693 ounces came from mining and 11,860 ounces from reprocessing historic concentrate stockpiles. Beyond the producing assets, Ero holds a definitive earn-in with Vale Base Metals to acquire 60% of the Furnas copper-gold project in the Carajas province, where ten rigs had drilled more than 75,000 meters through May 2026 and a pre-feasibility study is expected in 2027.
What does Hudbay Minerals (HBM) do?
Hudbay Minerals (NYSE and TSX: HBM) is a Canada-based critical minerals company focused primarily on copper, complemented by meaningful gold plus by-product zinc, silver and molybdenum. Its operating base consists of three long-life mines: the Constancia mine in Cusco, Peru, the Snow Lake operations in Manitoba, Canada, and the Copper Mountain mine in British Columbia, Canada, which it acquired in 2023. The company also holds a growth pipeline that includes the Copper World project in Arizona, the Mason project in Nevada, the Llaguen project in Peru, and expansion and exploration opportunities near its existing mines.
ERO vs HBM: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- ERO drivers: Tucuma finishing its ramp; Caraiba throughput offsetting a grade decline.
- HBM drivers: Copper price leverage; Production growth pipeline.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Every producing ounce and tonne comes from Brazil, so permitting, tax policy, labour and infrastructure risk are concentrated in a single jurisdiction, and a stronger Brazilian real inflates a cost base incurred almost entirely in reais against revenue booked in US dollars. For HBM, hudbay is highly exposed to copper price volatility, and a downturn in the copper cycle would compress margins quickly given its copper concentration.
ERO or HBM: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ERO if you believe its drivers more; HBM if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ERO and HBM guides.
ERO vs HBM: the full fundamentals
ERO. Ero reports in US dollars while incurring almost all costs in Brazilian reais, so headline margins move with the exchange rate as much as with the copper price. At roughly 7.5 times trailing adjusted EBITDA and about 12 times trailing earnings, the shares carry a mid-tier producer multiple rather than a developer multiple, which follows from three mines already in commercial production. The stock has ranged between $13.37 and $39.80 over the past 52 weeks, and Ero pays no dividend, directing cash instead toward capital projects and debt reduction.
HBM. As of July 2026 Hudbay is trading as a profitable mid-tier producer after a record first quarter, with revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net earnings all reaching quarterly highs. Its valuation and earnings are unusually sensitive to the copper price because copper is the dominant revenue driver, so trailing figures can shift quickly with the metal cycle. These are approximate values referenced to July 2026 and should be checked against the latest filings.
Headline figures (approximate, August 2026): ERO shows market cap ~$3.5 billion USD (~$33.79 per share, 104.3 million shares outstanding), revenue (ttm) ~$1.04 billion USD, up from ~$536 million in the prior twelve months, adjusted ebitda (ttm) ~$533 million USD, ev / adjusted ebitda (ttm) ~7.5x on an enterprise value of ~$4.0 billion USD; HBM shows q1 2026 revenue ~$757M (record), revenue (ttm) ~$2.7B, q1 2026 adjusted ebitda ~$422M (record), q1 2026 net income ~$192M.
The bottom line: ERO vs HBM
ERO and HBM are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ERO and HBM exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how ERO or HBM fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in Ero Copper Corp. with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how ERO fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between ERO and HBM?
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Ero Copper Corp. Hudbay Minerals (NYSE and TSX: HBM) is a Canada-based critical minerals company focused primarily on copper, complemented by meaningful gold plus by-product zinc, silver and molybdenum. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is ERO or HBM the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. HBM is the larger incumbent; ERO is the smaller challenger and looks cheaper on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, ERO or HBM?
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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), ERO trades at 7.06x and HBM at 12.05x, so ERO is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both ERO and HBM?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of ERO vs HBM?
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ERO: Every producing ounce and tonne comes from Brazil, so permitting, tax policy, labour and infrastructure risk are concentrated in a single jurisdiction, and a stronger Brazilian real inflates a cost base incurred almost entirely in reais against revenue booked in US dollars. Head grades are falling at both copper mines, from 1.27% to 0.87% at Caraiba and from 1.74% to 1.44% at Tucuma year over year, which means unit costs depend on throughput records continuing rather than on the orebody getting better. Capital expenditure guidance of $285 million to $330 million for 2026 sits close to the $230.6 million of operating cash flow generated in the first half, leaving thin free cash flow while $452.7 million of net debt is still outstanding. Xavantina's cost guidance has already been revised upward twice this year, to $1,100 to $1,350 per ounce on C1 and $2,200 to $2,700 on all-in sustaining, with production expected at the low end of the 40,000 to 50,000 ounce range. Finally, realized copper of $5.78 per pound in the second quarter is historically elevated, and management disclosed that a 10% move in copper and gold prices would swing pre-tax income by roughly $9.9 million on provisionally priced sales alone, before the far larger effect on future revenue. HBM: Hudbay is highly exposed to copper price volatility, and a downturn in the copper cycle would compress margins quickly given its copper concentration. Operating risks include grade variability, throughput issues and the inherent uncertainty of large mine ramps and expansions. Its Constancia mine sits in Peru, exposing the company to political, permitting and social-license risk in a jurisdiction that has seen mining disruptions. Development projects such as Copper World and New Ingerbelle face permitting timelines, capital cost inflation and execution risk before they generate cash. Finally, foreign-exchange moves and by-product price swings can meaningfully change reported costs and earnings from quarter to quarter.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell ERO or HBM; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.