Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) Stock Price & How to Invest

Ero Copper Corp. (TSX and NYSE: ERO) was founded in 2016 and runs three operating mines, all in Brazil, from a head office in Vancouver, British Columbia. Two produce copper in concentrate: the Caraiba Operations in Bahia State, whose underground Pilar mine is getting a new external shaft, and the Tucuma Operation in Para State, which declared commercial production on July 1, 2025 and has been ramping throughput since. The third, Xavantina in Mato Grosso State, is a high-grade underground gold mine that also carries a precious metals stream sold to Royal Gold. In the second quarter of 2026 Ero produced 17,315 tonnes of copper in concentrate at a consolidated C1 cash cost of $2.42 per pound, plus 20,553 ounces of gold, of which 8,693 ounces came from mining and 11,860 ounces from reprocessing historic concentrate stockpiles. Beyond the producing assets, Ero holds a definitive earn-in with Vale Base Metals to acquire 60% of the Furnas copper-gold project in the Carajas province, where ten rigs had drilled more than 75,000 meters through May 2026 and a pre-feasibility study is expected in 2027.

The financial picture in August 2026 is one of a company that has finished building and started paying down. Revenue over the trailing twelve months reached roughly $1.04 billion, close to double the roughly $536 million of the prior twelve-month period, as Tucuma moved into full commercial production and realized prices climbed to $5.78 per pound of copper and $3,903 per ounce of gold in the second quarter. Trailing adjusted EBITDA of roughly $533 million supported second-quarter operating cash flow of $137.9 million and net income attributable to shareholders of $89.5 million, or $0.85 per diluted share. Net debt fell to $452.7 million at June 30 from $559.1 million a year earlier, putting leverage at about 0.8 times, with a further $25 million repaid on the revolver after quarter-end. Everything is reported in US dollars, which matters because essentially all of the cost base is incurred in Brazilian reais, and management hedges roughly 70% of full-year operating and capital costs at an average USD/BRL floor of 5.54 to blunt that mismatch.

Every producing ounce and tonne comes from Brazil, so permitting, tax policy, labour and infrastructure risk are concentrated in a single jurisdiction, and a stronger Brazilian real inflates a cost base incurred almost entirely in reais against revenue booked in US dollars. Head grades are falling at both copper mines, from 1.27% to 0.87% at Caraiba and from 1.74% to 1.44% at Tucuma year over year, which means unit costs depend on throughput records continuing rather than on the orebody getting better. Capital expenditure guidance of $285 million to $330 million for 2026 sits close to the $230.6 million of operating cash flow generated in the first half, leaving thin free cash flow while $452.7 million of net debt is still outstanding. Xavantina's cost guidance has already been revised upward twice this year, to $1,100 to $1,350 per ounce on C1 and $2,200 to $2,700 on all-in sustaining, with production expected at the low end of the 40,000 to 50,000 ounce range. Finally, realized copper of $5.78 per pound in the second quarter is historically elevated, and management disclosed that a 10% move in copper and gold prices would swing pre-tax income by roughly $9.9 million on provisionally priced sales alone, before the far larger effect on future revenue.

3 analysts publish price targets on ERO, averaging $35.87 against a $33.80 price as of August 2026, or +6.1%. The published targets run from $33.00 to $40.60, a narrow spread, and the ratings split 12 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there has been 1 raise and 1 cut among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full ERO forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Ero Copper Corp.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Tucuma finishing its ramp. Tucuma produced 8,964 tonnes of copper in the second quarter of 2026 at a C1 cash cost of $2.10 per pound, with plant throughput up 27% quarter over quarter. The most optimistic published target, $40.60, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Every producing ounce and tonne comes from Brazil, so permitting, tax policy, labour and infrastructure risk are concentrated in a single jurisdiction, and a stronger Brazilian real inflates a cost base incurred almost entirely in reais against revenue booked in US dollars. The most pessimistic target, $33.00, is roughly what ERO is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on ERO, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Ero Copper Corp.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Market cap: ~$3.5 billion USD (~$33.79 per share, 104.3 million shares outstanding)
• Revenue (TTM): ~$1.04 billion USD, up from ~$536 million in the prior twelve months
• Adjusted EBITDA (TTM): ~$533 million USD
• EV / adjusted EBITDA (TTM): ~7.5x on an enterprise value of ~$4.0 billion USD
• Net debt: ~$453 million USD, ~0.8x trailing adjusted EBITDA
• 2026 capex guidance: ~$285 million to ~$330 million USD, raised from $275 million to $320 million

Ero reports in US dollars while incurring almost all costs in Brazilian reais, so headline margins move with the exchange rate as much as with the copper price. At roughly 7.5 times trailing adjusted EBITDA and about 12 times trailing earnings, the shares carry a mid-tier producer multiple rather than a developer multiple, which follows from three mines already in commercial production. The stock has ranged between $13.37 and $39.80 over the past 52 weeks, and Ero pays no dividend, directing cash instead toward capital projects and debt reduction.

If you want ERO exposure as part of a larger bundle rather than directly, these ETFs hold it meaningfully. Weights are approximate and refresh quarterly.

Other names that sit close to ERO: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get ERO exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it (COPJ), which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so ERO sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where ERO fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

Ero is a genuine producing miner with roughly $1.04 billion of trailing revenue and net debt down to about 0.8 times EBITDA, though the equity's value rests on the copper price, on head grades that are falling at both copper mines, and on a capital program that absorbs most of the cash the business throws off.

Whether ERO is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is ERO a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the ERO stock forecast.

For income investors, whether ERO pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does ERO pay a dividend? And to weigh ERO against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: ERO vs HBM and ERO vs NEXA.