GXO vs UPS: How GXO Logistics and United Parcel Service Compare (2026)
Last updated August 2026
Short answer
GXO (GXO Logistics) and UPS (United Parcel Service) share investment themes but are different businesses. The right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme.
GXO vs UPS: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | GXO | UPS | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 13.44 | 12.91 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 42.52 | 19.37 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 1.55 | 1.03 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 10% of range | 55% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 1.85 | 5.89 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Before you buy: how GXO and UPS affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. GXO and UPS share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined GXO and UPS exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does GXO Logistics (GXO) do?
GXO Logistics was spun off from XPO in 2021 and does one thing: it runs warehouses and fulfilment centres for other companies. Blue-chip customers in e-commerce, retail, aerospace and defence, technology, industrials and life sciences hand GXO their inventory, and GXO stores, picks, packs, ships and handles returns under multi-year contracts, typically in facilities it leases rather than owns. That makes it asset-light in the sense that it does not own trucks, ships or planes, though it does invest heavily in warehouse robotics, automated storage and retrieval systems and its own software. Roughly 800 sites span North America and Europe, with the United Kingdom the single largest revenue geography after the April 2024 acquisition of Wincanton, followed by the United States, the Netherlands, France, Spain and Italy.
What does United Parcel Service (UPS) do?
United Parcel Service is a global package delivery and supply chain management company founded in 1907 in Seattle and headquartered in Atlanta. It reports through three segments. U.S. Domestic Package is the largest, moving ground and air parcels across the United States and contributing the bulk of revenue. International Package handles cross-border and in-country delivery across Europe, Asia, and the Americas and historically carries the highest operating margins. Supply Chain Solutions covers freight forwarding, customs brokerage, contract logistics, and the fast-growing healthcare and cold-chain logistics business. UPS makes money primarily by charging shippers per package based on weight, distance, speed, and service level, so revenue per piece and total volume are the two levers that drive results, alongside the fixed cost of running an integrated air and ground network.
GXO vs UPS: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- GXO drivers: Contracted revenue visibility from new wins; Automation and the GXO IQ AI layer.
- UPS drivers: Quality of revenue over raw volume; A high and long-standing dividend.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: GAAP profitability is very thin: $27 million of net income on $3.4 billion of Q2 revenue leaves almost no cushion if wage inflation, a site ramp problem or a lost contract goes the wrong way. For UPS, the bear case starts with falling volume: total package volume continues to decline, and if the higher revenue per piece does not offset the loss of fixed-cost leverage, margins stay pressured (Q1 2026 operating margin compressed to 6.0 percent from 7.7 percent a year earlier).
GXO or UPS: which should you pick?
GXO vs UPS: the full fundamentals
GXO. The trailing P/E looks distorted because GAAP net income is compressed by amortization, restructuring and interest, so the market prices GXO off adjusted figures: full-year 2026 guidance is $945 million to $965 million of adjusted EBITDA and $2.95 to $3.15 of adjusted diluted EPS, against roughly 4 to 5 percent organic revenue growth. Q2 2026 delivered $3.44 billion of revenue (up 4.3 percent, 3.4 percent organic), $219 million of adjusted EBITDA and $0.59 of adjusted EPS, with the shares falling roughly 6 to 9 percent afterward on a slight revenue miss versus consensus near $3.46 billion. At about $48 per share the stock trades near 0.39x sales and about 13.5x EV/EBITDA, with a beta around 1.55 and no dividend.
UPS. UPS draws most investor attention as an income holding, and the roughly 6 percent yield is the headline number. The catch is that the dividend is currently not covered by either earnings or free cash flow, with the payout ratio running above 100 percent on both measures, so the sustainability of the dividend hinges entirely on the margin recovery management is guiding to. The forward P/E (about 14.3x) sits well below the trailing P/E (about 17.5x), reflecting analyst expectations that the cost-out program and quality-of-revenue strategy lift earnings, but those gains are not yet proven in reported results.
Headline figures (approximate, August 2026): GXO shows revenue (ttm) ~$13.6B, net income (ttm) ~$131M, diluted eps (ttm) ~$1.14, market cap ~$5.5B; UPS shows revenue (ttm, approx.) ~$89 billion, operating margin (q1 2026, consolidated) ~6.0% (adjusted ~6.2%), dividend yield (as of late june 2026) ~6.1% (sources cite ~6.1% to 6.5%), payout ratio (earnings basis) ~106% (cash-flow basis ~123%).
The bottom line: GXO vs UPS
GXO and UPS are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined GXO and UPS exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how GXO or UPS fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in GXO Logistics with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how GXO fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between GXO and UPS?
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GXO Logistics was spun off from XPO in 2021 and does one thing: it runs warehouses and fulfilment centres for other companies. United Parcel Service is a global package delivery and supply chain management company founded in 1907 in Seattle and headquartered in Atlanta. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is GXO or UPS the better stock?
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Neither is universally better; they suit different views and risk levels. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, GXO or UPS?
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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), GXO trades at 13.44x and UPS at 12.91x, so UPS is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both GXO and UPS?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of GXO vs UPS?
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GXO: GAAP profitability is very thin: $27 million of net income on $3.4 billion of Q2 revenue leaves almost no cushion if wage inflation, a site ramp problem or a lost contract goes the wrong way. The balance sheet carries roughly $2.4 billion of net debt at about 2.6x net leverage, and free cash flow conversion guidance of only 30 to 40 percent of adjusted EBITDA reflects heavy ongoing capital spending on automation. Revenue is tied to customer volumes, so a consumer or industrial slowdown flows through quickly, and contract renewals give large customers repeated chances to reprice. The Wincanton integration still carries an unfinished condition, the divestment of certain UK grocery contracts required by the Competition and Markets Authority, and the UK concentration adds currency and single-market exposure. Competition is intense from DHL Supply Chain (roughly double GXO's contract logistics revenue), Kuehne+Nagel, DSV, CEVA and Ryder, and the perennial overhang is insourcing, where a large customer such as Amazon decides to run its own fulfilment instead. UPS: The bear case starts with falling volume: total package volume continues to decline, and if the higher revenue per piece does not offset the loss of fixed-cost leverage, margins stay pressured (Q1 2026 operating margin compressed to 6.0 percent from 7.7 percent a year earlier). The dividend is the sharpest concern, because the payout ratio has run above 100 percent of both earnings (around 106 percent) and free cash flow (around 123 percent), so a weaker-than-expected recovery could force a cut, particularly in 2027. Labor costs are high and largely fixed under the Teamsters contract, limiting flexibility when volume softens. Finally, e-commerce pricing is competitive and Amazon is now opening its own logistics network to third parties, adding a well-capitalized rival precisely as UPS reduces its Amazon business.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell GXO or UPS; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.