ICL vs NTR: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ICL and NTR share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ICL and NTR exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

ICL Group Ltd. runs four businesses out of a mineral base most competitors cannot replicate. Industrial Products extracts bromine from the highly concentrated Dead Sea brine and turns it into flame retardants, clear brine fluids and specialty minerals, making ICL the largest elemental bromine producer in the world alongside Albemarle and Lanxess. Potash comes from solar evaporation ponds at Sodom in Israel and from underground mines in Catalonia, Spain. Phosphate Solutions works phosphate rock from the Negev and China into fertilisers and higher value food and industrial specialties, and Growing Solutions sells controlled release and water soluble fertilisers, biostimulants and micronutrients into agriculture, turf and ornamental markets. The company employs about ~12,000 people, reports in US dollars under IFRS as a foreign private issuer, and had ~1.29 billion ordinary shares outstanding at the end of 2025.

Full ICL guide

Nutrien is a Canadian-headquartered agricultural giant formed from the 2018 merger of Potash Corp and Agrium, and it reports in U.S. dollars. The company runs four segments: Retail (Nutrien Ag Solutions), which distributes crop nutrients, crop protection, seed and services to farmers through a large network of stores across North America, South America and Australia, plus three upstream segments (Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate) that mine and manufacture the fertilizers themselves. Nutrien is the largest potash producer in the world by capacity and one of the largest nitrogen producers, so its upstream results move directly with global fertilizer benchmarks, while Retail earns more stable margins from proprietary products and services.

Full NTR guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• ICL drivers: Potash pricing against a low cost Dead Sea position; Bromine and an improving specialty mix.
• NTR drivers: Potash pricing and record volumes; Nitrogen leverage to natural gas.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The Dead Sea Works concession covering ~652 square kilometres runs only to March 31, 2030, and ICL must win the successor concession from the Israeli state on terms the state sets, which is the largest open question in the equity. For NTR, the dominant risk is commodity price cyclicality: potash, nitrogen and phosphate prices can fall sharply, and because upstream margins are highly operationally geared, consolidated earnings can drop far faster than revenue.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ICL if you believe its drivers more; NTR if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ICL and NTR guides.

ICL. ICL reports in US dollars under IFRS even though it is an Israeli issuer filing a Form 20-F, so no currency translation is needed to read these numbers. The reported price to earnings ratio of about ~23x overstates the expense, because 2025 absorbed roughly ~$293 million of impairments, closure charges and a Dead Sea water fee provision; on adjusted trailing earnings near ~$0.41 per share the multiple is closer to ~13x. Dividend policy is a payout of up to ~50% of adjusted annual net income, and ~$232 million was declared against 2025 results.

NTR. As of July 2026 NTR trades near $66 for a market cap of roughly $32 billion, at a trailing P/E around 16 and a forward P/E near 15.5, modest multiples typical of a cyclical commodity producer. Q1 2026 revenue was ~$6.0 billion (up ~19% year over year) with adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.11 billion, and the business is seasonal, with the spring planting quarter usually the strongest. Because so much of the profit is commodity-driven, valuation multiples on trailing earnings can look cheap near cycle peaks and expensive near troughs, so context on where fertilizer prices sit matters more than the headline P/E.

Headline figures (approximate, August 2026): ICL shows revenue (ttm) ~$7.7B, with Q2 2026 sales of ~$2.14B up ~17% year over year, adjusted ebitda (ttm) ~$1.64B; FY2026 guidance reiterated at ~$1.5B to ~$1.7B, diluted eps (ttm) ~$0.24 reported, ~$0.41 on an adjusted basis, ev / adjusted ebitda ~6x (market cap ~$7.2B plus ~$2.6B net financial liabilities); NTR shows share price ~$66, market cap ~$32 billion, revenue (ttm) ~$28 billion, fy2025 net earnings ~$2.3 billion.

ICL and NTR are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ICL and NTR exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.