ICL Group Ltd. (ICL) Stock Price & How to Invest

ICL Group Ltd. runs four businesses out of a mineral base most competitors cannot replicate. Industrial Products extracts bromine from the highly concentrated Dead Sea brine and turns it into flame retardants, clear brine fluids and specialty minerals, making ICL the largest elemental bromine producer in the world alongside Albemarle and Lanxess. Potash comes from solar evaporation ponds at Sodom in Israel and from underground mines in Catalonia, Spain. Phosphate Solutions works phosphate rock from the Negev and China into fertilisers and higher value food and industrial specialties, and Growing Solutions sells controlled release and water soluble fertilisers, biostimulants and micronutrients into agriculture, turf and ornamental markets. The company employs about ~12,000 people, reports in US dollars under IFRS as a foreign private issuer, and had ~1.29 billion ordinary shares outstanding at the end of 2025.

The investment picture is a cyclical recovery running into a political deadline. Second quarter 2026 sales of ~$2.14 billion were up ~17% year over year, adjusted EBITDA reached ~$448 million against ~$351 million, and every one of the four segments grew sales. Trailing twelve month revenue is about ~$7.7 billion with adjusted EBITDA near ~$1.64 billion, and management reiterated full year adjusted EBITDA guidance of ~$1.5 billion to ~$1.7 billion. Against a market capitalisation of roughly ~$7.2 billion and net financial liabilities of ~$2.6 billion, that is an enterprise value near ~6 times EBITDA, cheap for a business with BBB- ratings from both S&P and Fitch. What the discount buys is exposure to the Israeli state, which owns the Dead Sea concession ICL operates under until March 31, 2030 and sets the terms of whatever replaces it.

The Dead Sea Works concession covering ~652 square kilometres runs only to March 31, 2030, and ICL must win the successor concession from the Israeli state on terms the state sets, which is the largest open question in the equity. Israeli country risk is concrete rather than theoretical here: the security situation has produced recurring charges, shekel appreciation lifts a cost base that sells in dollars, and regional shipping disruption affects both input costs and exports. Earnings remain levered to potash and phosphate pricing, so a soft grain year would give back a good part of the 2026 recovery. Net financial liabilities rose ~$375 million in the first half to about ~$2,635 million following an ~$800 million ten year note issue at ~6.036%, comfortable at roughly ~1.6 times adjusted EBITDA but less forgiving if prices turn. Several Israeli environmental and planning matters remain open, including petitions over the Pond 4 reuse plan and an appeal against the dismissal of a Haifa Bay air pollution class action, and none of these are securities fraud claims.

4 analysts publish price targets on ICL, averaging $5.81 against a $5.55 price as of August 2026, or +4.7%. The published targets run from $5.50 to $6.00, a narrow spread, and the ratings split 0 buy, 4 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there has been 1 raise and 1 cut among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full ICL forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on ICL Group Ltd.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Potash pricing against a low cost Dead Sea position. ICL realised ~$376 per tonne CIF on potash in the second quarter of 2026, about ~13% above the same quarter of 2025 and ~4% above the first quarter, and Potash segment EBITDA rose to ~$154 million from ~$115 million. The most optimistic published target, $6.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. The Dead Sea Works concession covering ~652 square kilometres runs only to March 31, 2030, and ICL must win the successor concession from the Israeli state on terms the state sets, which is the largest open question in the equity. The most pessimistic target, $5.50, is roughly what ICL is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on ICL, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see ICL Group Ltd.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$7.7B, with Q2 2026 sales of ~$2.14B up ~17% year over year
• Adjusted EBITDA (TTM): ~$1.64B; FY2026 guidance reiterated at ~$1.5B to ~$1.7B
• Diluted EPS (TTM): ~$0.24 reported, ~$0.41 on an adjusted basis
• EV / adjusted EBITDA: ~6x (market cap ~$7.2B plus ~$2.6B net financial liabilities)
• Net financial liabilities: ~$2.6B, about ~1.6x adjusted EBITDA; BBB- stable at both S&P and Fitch
• Dividend: ~$0.06 per share declared for the September 2026 payment, roughly a ~3% trailing yield

ICL reports in US dollars under IFRS even though it is an Israeli issuer filing a Form 20-F, so no currency translation is needed to read these numbers. The reported price to earnings ratio of about ~23x overstates the expense, because 2025 absorbed roughly ~$293 million of impairments, closure charges and a Dead Sea water fee provision; on adjusted trailing earnings near ~$0.41 per share the multiple is closer to ~13x. Dividend policy is a payout of up to ~50% of adjusted annual net income, and ~$232 million was declared against 2025 results.

Other names that sit close to ICL: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get ICL exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so ICL sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where ICL fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

The second quarter of 2026 was ICL's best operating performance in three years, so the valuation gap now comes down to what discount the March 2030 Dead Sea concession decision and Israeli country risk deserve.

Whether ICL is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is ICL a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the ICL stock forecast.

For income investors, whether ICL pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does ICL pay a dividend? And to weigh ICL against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: ICL vs NTR and ICL vs SQM.