LMT vs MDA: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. LMT and MDA share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined LMT and MDA exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Lockheed Martin is the largest defense contractor in the world, generating the vast majority of its revenue from the US government and allied militaries. It is organized into four segments: Aeronautics (home of the F-35 Lightning II, F-22, and C-130, the largest segment), Rotary and Mission Systems (Sikorsky helicopters, combat systems, radar, and sensors), Missiles and Fire Control (precision missiles, HIMARS, PAC-3 interceptors, and hypersonics), and Space (satellites, missile-defense systems, and strategic and hypersonic programs). Lockheed designs, builds, and sustains some of the most advanced and mission-critical weapons systems in the world, including the F-35, its single largest program, which generates long-tail revenue from production, upgrades, and decades of sustainment. The company makes money under long-term government contracts, with a large multi-year backlog that provides revenue visibility. It pursues hypersonics, missile defense, and space as growth areas. As a flagship defense name, Lockheed is a steady cash generator that returns substantial capital to shareholders. Headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.

Full LMT guide

MDA Space Ltd. (NYSE: MDA; TSX: MDA) is a Canadian space-technology company that builds and operates hardware and systems across the space economy. It runs three business areas: Satellite Systems (software-defined satellites under the MDA Aurora product line, plus payloads and antennas for low-, medium-, and geosynchronous-orbit constellations), Robotics and Space Operations (the Canadarm robotic arms, including the Canadarm3 program for NASA's lunar Gateway), and Geointelligence (Earth-observation imagery and analytics, anchored by the MDA Chorus radar constellation expected to launch in late 2026). Headquartered near Toronto with major operations in Montreal, MDA has decades of spaceflight heritage and supplies both commercial constellation customers and government and defense agencies.

Full MDA guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• LMT drivers: The F-35 franchise; Rising defense budgets and munitions demand.
• MDA drivers: Satellite constellation buildout; Robotics and Canadarm3.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Lockheed depends overwhelmingly on US and allied defense budgets, so spending cuts, continuing resolutions, shutdowns, or shifting priorities directly threaten revenue. For MDA, mDA's revenue is concentrated in a handful of large, lumpy programs, so a delay, cancellation, or schedule slip (as seen when Telesat Lightspeed's in-service target moved into 2028 on a supplier chip issue) can move results materially.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick LMT if you believe its drivers more; MDA if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the LMT and MDA guides.

LMT. Lockheed trades at a defense-sector multiple supported by an enormous backlog, predictable government revenue, and reliable free cash flow that funds a growing dividend and large buybacks. The valuation reflects the durability of defense spending and the F-35 annuity, offset by program-concentration risk and occasional charges on fixed-price contracts. As a defensive cash compounder, Lockheed is often valued on free cash flow and backlog visibility as much as headline earnings.

MDA. MDA is profitable and growing, with early-2026 revenue up about 32 percent year over year and full-year 2026 guidance for roughly CA$1.7 to 1.9 billion in revenue and CA$320 to 370 million in adjusted EBITDA (an 18 to 20 percent margin). It trades at a premium earnings multiple that prices in continued backlog conversion, and free cash flow is guided neutral to negative as it funds factory expansion and chip development. Figures are approximate and reported in Canadian dollars; the NYSE market cap is in US dollars.

Headline figures (approximate, early 2026): LMT shows revenue (ttm) ~$72 billion, operating margin ~11-12%, net income (ttm) ~$5-6 billion, p/e (ttm) ~17x; MDA shows revenue (2025) ~CA$1.6 billion (up ~51% YoY), revenue (q1 2026) ~CA$464 million (up ~32% YoY), adjusted ebitda (q1 2026) ~CA$91 million, 2026 revenue guidance ~CA$1.7 to 1.9 billion.

LMT and MDA are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined LMT and MDA exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.